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Encyclopedia > Risk

For the Parker Brothers board game, see Risk (game) Risk is a commercial strategic board game, produced by Parker Brothers (now a division of Hasbro). ...

Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact to an asset or some characteristic of value that may arise from some present process or future event. In everyday usage, risk is often used synonymously with the probability of a known loss. Paradoxically, a probable loss can be uncertain and relative in an individual event while having a certainty in the aggregate of multiple events (see risk vs. uncertainty below). Risk may refer to: concepts in statistics, engineering, finance etc. ... Image File history File links Broom_icon. ... Image File history File links Emblem-important. ... For other uses, see Concept (disambiguation). ... This article is about the business definition. ... In general, the economic value of something is how much a product or service is worth to someone relative to other things (often measured in money). ... Process (lat. ... In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes (a subset of the sample space) to which a probability is assigned. ... Probability is the likelihood that something is the case or will happen. ...

Risk is the possibility of an event occurring that will have an impact on the achievement of objectives. Risk is measured in terms of impact and likelihood.[1]

Risk communication and risk perception are essential factors for all human decision making. For non-business risks, see risk or the disambiguation page risk analysis. ... Risk perception is the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. ... Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from among multiple alternatives. ...

Definitions of risk

There are many more and less precise definitions of risk; they depend on specific applications and situational contexts. It can be assessed qualitatively or quantitatively.

Qualitatively, risk is considered proportional to the expected losses which can be caused by an event and to the probability of this event. The harsher the loss and the more likely the event, the greater the overall risk.

Frequently in the subject matter literature, risk is defined in pseudo-formal forms where the components of the definition are vague and ill-defined, for example, risk is considered as an indicator of threat, or depends on threats, vulnerability, impact and uncertainty.[citation needed] For other uses of the word Vulnerability, please refer to vulnerability (computer science). ... â€œUncertainâ€ redirects here. ...

In engineering, the quantitative engineering definition of risk is: Engineering is the discipline of acquiring and applying knowledge of design, analysis, and/or construction of works for practical purposes. ...

$Risk = {(probability of an accident)} times {(losses per accident)}$.

Independently, on the wide use this definition, for example in nuclear energy and other potentially dangerous industries, measuring engineering risk is often difficult; the probability is assessed by the frequency of the past similar events (or by event-tree methods), but rare failures are hard to estimate if an event tree cannot be formulated, and loss of human life is generally considered beyond estimation [citation needed]—however, radiological release (e.g., GBq of radio-iodine) is usually used as a surrogate. There are many formal methods used to assess or to "measure" risk, considered as one of the critical indicators important for human decision making. Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from among multiple alternatives. ...

Financial risk is often defined as the unexpected variability or volatility of returns and thus includes both potential worse-than-expected as well as better-than-expected returns. References to negative risk below should be read as applying to positive impacts or opportunity (e.g., for "loss" read "loss or gain") unless the context precludes. In essence financial risk is any risk associated with money. ... Volatility most frequently refers to the standard deviation of the change in value of a financial instrument with a specific time horizon. ...

In statistics, risk is often mapped to the probability of some event which is seen as undesirable. Usually, the probability of that event and some assessment of its expected harm must be combined into a believable scenario (an outcome), which combines the set of risk, regret and reward probabilities into an expected value for that outcome. (See also Expected utility.) Probability is the likelihood that something is the case or will happen. ... A scenario (from the Italian, that which is pinned to the scenery) is a brief description of an event or a series of events. ... In probability theory the expected value (or mathematical expectation) of a random variable is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by its payoff (value). Thus, it represents the average amount one expects as the outcome of the random trial when identical odds are... The expected utility hypothesis is the hypothesis in economics that the utility of an agent facing uncertainty is calculated by considering utility in each possible state and constructing a weighted average. ...

Thus, in statistical decision theory, the risk function of an estimator δ(x) for a parameter θ, calculated from some observables x, is defined as the expectation value of the loss function L, Decision theory is an area of study of discrete mathematics that models human decision-making in science, engineering and indeed all human social activities. ... In decision theory, the risk of an estimator the expected value of the loss function as a function on the unknown underlying state of nature: . Categories: Decision theory ... In statistics, an estimator is a function of the observable sample data that is used to estimate an unknown population parameter; an estimate is the result from the actual application of the function to a particular set of data. ... The factual accuracy of this article is disputed. ... In physics, particularly in quantum physics, a system observable is a property of the system state that can be determined by some sequence of physical operations. ... In statistics, decision theory and economics, a loss function is a function that maps an event (technically an element of a sample space) onto a real number representing the economic cost or regret associated with the event. ...

$R(theta,delta(x)) = int L(theta,delta(x))times f(x|theta),dx$

In information security [citation needed], a risk is defined as a function of three variables: Security is everyoneâ€™s responsibility. ...

1. the probability that there is a threat
2. the probability that there are any vulnerabilities
3. the potential impact.

If any of these variables approaches zero, the overall risk approaches zero. For other uses of the word Vulnerability, please refer to vulnerability (computer science). ...

The management of actuarial risk is called risk management. For non-business risks, see risk or the disambiguation page risk analysis. ...

Historical background

Scenario analysis matured during Cold War confrontations between major powers, notably the USA and the USSR. It became widespread in insurance circles in the 1970s when major oil tanker disasters forced a more comprehensive foresight.[citation needed] The scientific approach to risk entered finance in the 1980s when financial derivatives proliferated. It reached general professions in the 1990s when the power of personal computing allowed for widespread data collection and numbers crunching. Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (scenarios). ... For other uses, see Cold War (disambiguation). ... Subsequent to an Oil Spill An oil spill is the unintentional release of a liquid petroleum hydrocarbon into the environment as a result of human activity. ... Derivatives traders at the Chicago Board of Trade. ...

Governments are apparently only now learning to use sophisticated risk methods, most obviously to set standards for environmental regulation, e.g. "pathway analysis" as practiced by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Environmental law is a body of law which addresses the system of complex and interlocking rules which seeks to protect from destruction or development certain species or favored natural areas thought to be endangered by human encroachment. ... EPA redirects here. ...

Risk vs. uncertainty

In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight (1921) established the distinction between risk and uncertainty. Frank Hyneman Knight (November 7, 1885 - April 15, 1972) was an important economist of the twentieth century. ... â€œUncertainâ€ redirects here. ...

 “ ... Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term "risk," as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. ... The essential fact is that "risk" means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating. ... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We ... accordingly restrict the term "uncertainty" to cases of the non-quantitive type. ”

Insurance and health risk

Insurance is a risk-reducing investment in which the buyer pays a small fixed amount to be protected from a potential large loss. Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain. Insurance, in law and economics, is a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent loss. ... Invest redirects here. ... Caravaggio, The Cardsharps, c. ...

Risks in personal health may be reduced by primary prevention actions that decrease early causes of illness or by secondary prevention actions after a person has clearly measured clinical signs or symptoms recognized as risk factors. Tertiary prevention (medical) reduces the negative impact of an already established disease by restoring function and reducing disease-related complications. Ethical medical practice requires careful discussion of risk factors with individual patients to obtain informed consent for secondary and tertiary prevention efforts, whereas public health efforts in primary prevention require education of the entire population at risk. In each case, careful communication about risk factors, likely outcomes and certainty must distinguish between causal events that must be decreased and associated events that may be merely consequences rather than causes. In medicine, prevention is any activity by which an individual avoids the development of a disease or condition (primary prevention), diagnoses a disease in an early stage or prevents its reoccurance (secondary prevention), or avoids a diseases worsening and restores oneself to an optimal level of functioning (tertiary prevention). ... In medicine, prevention is any effort to avoid the development of a disease or condition (primary prevention), to avoid its recurrence (secondary prevention) or to avoid its worsening or complications (tertiary prevention). ... In medicine, prevention is any activity which reduces the burden of mortality or morbidity from disease. ... A risk factor is a concept in finance theory such as the CAPM, APT and other theories that use pricing kernels. ... Informed consent is a legal condition whereby a person can be said to have given consent based upon an appreciation and understanding of the facts and implications of an action. ... A related article is titled uncertainty. ...

Economic risk

Insight

The central insight in the methodology for incorporating economic risks arise from the realization of the fact that however manifold and diverse might be the causes, or factors, of risks around a specific project or business (for instance, the hike in the price for raw materials, the lapsing of deadlines for construction of a new operating facility, disruptions in a production process, emergence of a serious competitor on the market, the loss of key personnel, the change of a political regime, natural contingencies, etc.), all of these are ultimately manifested under only two guises. According to CCF Conception the economic risk consists in that: Actual positive conventional cash flows (income, inflows) turn out to be less than expected AND / OR Actual negative conventional cash flows (expenditures, outflows) turn out to be larger than expected (in absolute terms).

Such lucid and unambiguous conceptual treatment of such a complex and multi-faceted notion as the economic risk emphasizes the very core of the question. The economic risk is not an abstract ‘uncertainty’ or ‘possibility of failure’ or changeableness (variability) of the outcome… The economic risk – is a monetary amount which might be under-collected and/or over-paid. Just as in music, one must use musical notes and staves—not alphabet letters or colors—to render a melody, in describing economic risk, we must ultimately operate with monetary units and not with the percentages of discount rates, magnitudes of volatility or anything else. (See [1].)

In the workplace, incidental and inherent risks exist. Incidental risks are those which occur naturally in the business but are not part of the core of the business. Inherent risks have a negative effect on the operating profit of the business.

Criticism

Criticism has been leveled at the amoral ("rational") application of quantitative risk assessment. [citation needed]

Risk-sensitive industries

Some industries manage risk in a highly quantified and numerate way. These include the nuclear power and aircraft industries, where the possible failure of a complex series of engineered systems could result in highly undesirable outcomes. The usual measure of risk for a class of events is then, where P is probability and C is consequence: This article is about applications of nuclear fission reactors as power sources. ... An aerospace manufacturer is a company or individual involved in the various aspects of designing, building, testing, selling, and maintaining aircraft, aircraft parts, missiles, rockets, and/or spacecraft. ...

$R = P (mbox{of the Event}) times C$

The total risk is then the sum of the individual class-risks.

In the nuclear industry, consequence is often measured in terms of off-site radiological release, and this is often banded into five or six decade-wide bands.
.

The risks are evaluated using fault tree/event tree techniques (see safety engineering). Where these risks are low, they are normally considered to be "Broadly Acceptable". A higher level of risk (typically up to 10 to 100 times what is considered Broadly Acceptable) has to be justified against the costs of reducing it further and the possible benefits that make it tolerable—these risks are described as "Tolerable if ALARP". Risks beyond this level are classified as "Intolerable". According to Â§644 of International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards, known as Basel II, operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or from external events. ... Safety engineering is an applied science strongly related to systems engineering and the subset System Safety Engineering. ... Safety engineering is an applied science strongly related to systems engineering and the subset System Safety Engineering. ... ALARP stands for As Low As Reasonably Practicable, and is a term often used in the milieu of safety-critical and high-integrity systems. ...

The level of risk deemed Broadly Acceptable has been considered by regulatory bodies in various countries—an early attempt by UK government regulator and academic F. R. Farmer used the example of hill-walking and similar activities which have definable risks that people appear to find acceptable. This resulted in the so-called Farmer Curve of acceptable probability of an event versus its consequence. F. Reg Farmer OBE, FRS, 1914-2001 was a nuclear regulator (working for the UKAEAs Safety and Reliability Directorate, SRD) and later an academic at Imperial College, London. ...

The technique as a whole is usually referred to as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) (or Probabilistic Safety Assessment, PSA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach. WASH-1400, Reactor Safety Study was produced by a committee of specialists under Professor Norman Rasmussen in 1975 for the USNRC. It is thus often referred to as the Rasmussen Report. ...

In finance

Main article: Financial risk

In finance, risk is the probability that an investment's actual return will be different than expected. This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. It is usually measured by calculating the standard deviation of the historical returns or average returns of a specific investment. [citation needed] In essence financial risk is any risk associated with money. ...

In finance, risk has no one definition, but some theorists, notably Ron Dembo, have defined quite general methods to assess risk as an expected after-the-fact level of regret. Such methods have been uniquely successful in limiting interest rate risk in financial markets. Financial markets are considered to be a proving ground for general methods of risk assessment. Finance studies and addresses the ways in which individuals, businesses, and organizations raise, allocate, and use monetary resources over time, taking into account the risks entailed in their projects. ... Ron Dembo is a key theorist of risk, best known for equivalence of risk and regret. ... In finance, rate risk is the risk of losses caused by interest rate changes. ... In finance, financial markets facilitate: The raising of capital (in the capital markets); The transfer of risk (in the derivatives markets); and International trade (in the currency markets). ...

However, these methods are also hard to understand. The mathematical difficulties interfere with other social goods such as disclosure, valuation and transparency. In particular, it is often difficult to tell if such financial instruments are "hedging" (purchasing/selling a financial instrument specifically to reduce or cancel out the risk in another investment) or "gambling" (increasing measurable risk and exposing the investor to catastrophic loss in pursuit of very high windfalls that increase expected value). Disclosure means the giving out of information, either voluntarily or to be in compliance with legal regulations or workplace rules. ... Look up valuation in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... In the physical sciences, specifically in optics, a transparent physical object is one that can be seen through. ... Financial instruments package financial capital in readily tradeable forms - they do not exist outside the context of the financial markets. ... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged into Hedge (finance). ... Caravaggio, The Cardsharps, c. ...

As regret measures rarely reflect actual human risk-aversion, it is difficult to determine if the outcomes of such transactions will be satisfactory. Risk seeking describes an individual whose utility function's second derivative is positive. Such an individual would willingly (actually pay a premium to) assume all risk in the economy and is hence not likely to exist. Regret was a famous racehorse, foaled in 1912 to Broomstick and sired by Jersey Lightning. ...

In financial markets, one may need to measure credit risk, information timing and source risk, probability model risk, and legal risk if there are regulatory or civil actions taken as a result of some "investor's regret". Credit risk is the risk of loss due to a debtors non-payment of a loan or other line of credit (either the principal or interest (coupon) or both). ... Legal and regulatory risk: Sometimes governments change the law in a way that adversely affects a banks position. ...

"A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk."

"For example, a US Treasury bond is considered to be one of the safest investments and, when compared to a corporate bond, provides a lower rate of return. The reason for this is that a corporation is much more likely to go bankrupt than the U.S. government. Because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a higher rate of return."

In public works

In a peer reviewed study of risk in public works projects located in twenty nations on five continents, Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002, 2005) documented high risks for such ventures for both costs [2] and demand [3]. Actual costs of projects were typically higher than estimated costs; cost overruns of 50% were common, overruns above 100% not uncommon. Actual demand was often lower than estimated; demand shortfalls of 25% were common, of 50% not uncommon. The law of costs is typical of common law jurisdictions. ... Cost overrun is defined as excess of actual cost over budget. ... The supply and demand model describes how prices vary as a result of a balance between product availability at each price (supply) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand). ...

Due to such cost and demand risks, cost-benefit analyses of public works projects have proved to be highly uncertain. Cost-benefit analysis is an important technique for project appraisal: the process of weighing the total expected costs against the total expected benefits of one or more actions in order to choose the best or most profitable option. ...

The main causes of cost and demand risks were found to be optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Measures identified to mitigate this type of risk are better governance through incentive alignment and the use of reference class forecasting [4]. Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. ... Strategic misrepresentation is the planned, systematic distortion or misstatement of factâ€”lyingâ€”in response to incentives in the budget process. ...

Risk in psychology

Main articles: Decision theory and Prospect theory

Decision theory is an area of study of discrete mathematics that models human decision-making in science, engineering and indeed all human social activities. ... Prospect theory was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979 as a psychologically realistic alternative to expected utility theory. ...

Regret

In decision theory, regret (and anticipation of regret) can play a significant part in decision-making, distinct from risk aversion (preferring the status quo in case one becomes worse off). Decision theory is an area of study of discrete mathematics that models human decision-making in science, engineering and indeed all human social activities. ... Risk aversion is a concept in economics and finance theory explaining the behaviour of consumers and investors under uncertainty. ...

Framing

Framing[citation needed] is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because of bounded rationality (our brains get overloaded, so we take mental shortcuts), the risk of extreme events is discounted because the probability is too low to evaluate intuitively. As an example, one of the leading causes of death is road accidents caused by drunk driving—partly because any given driver frames the problem by largely or totally ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident. The term framing can have several possible meanings: framing (telecommunication), where it relates to synchronization framing (economics), where it relates to rational choice theory framing (World Wide Web), where it relates to the use of multiple panes within a web page framing (communication theory), where it relates to the contextual... Many models of human behavior in the social sciences assume that humans can be reasonably approximated or described as rational entities, especially as conceived by rational choice theory. ... A car accident in Yate, near Bristol, England, in July 2004. ... For other uses, see Under the influence. ...

The above examples (body, threat, price of life, professional ethics and regret) show that the risk adjustor or assessor often faces serious conflicts of interest. The assessor also faces cognitive bias and cultural bias and cannot always be trusted to avoid all moral hazards. This represents a risk in itself, which grows as the assessor is less like the client. For other uses, see Body (disambiguation). ... In neoclassical economics, the price of life is the only arbiter of value of life. ... This page is a candidate to be moved to Wiktionary. ... Regret was a famous racehorse, foaled in 1912 to Broomstick and sired by Jersey Lightning. ... Conflicts of Interest is an episode from the fourth season of the science-fiction television series Babylon 5. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... Cultural bias is the phenomenon of interpreting and judging phenomena by standards inherent to ones own culture. ... Moral hazard refers to the prospect that a party insulated from risk (such as through insurance) will not fully account for the negative consequences of the risk when deciding to act. ...

For instance, an extremely disturbing event that all participants wish not to happen again may be ignored in analysis despite the fact it has occurred and has a nonzero probability. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies to error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science. But all decision-making under uncertainty must consider cognitive bias, cultural bias, and notational bias: No group of people assessing risk is immune to "groupthink": acceptance of obviously wrong answers simply because it is socially painful to disagree. Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence or rationality. ... Scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. ... Philosophy of science is the study of assumptions, foundations, and implications of science, especially in the natural sciences and social sciences. ... Decision theory is an area of study of discrete mathematics that models human decision-making in science, engineering and indeed all human social activities. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... Cultural bias is the phenomenon of interpreting and judging phenomena by standards inherent to ones own culture. ... Notational bias is a form of cultural bias in which a notation induces the appearance of a nonexistent natural law. ... Groupthink is a type of thought exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas. ...

One effective way to solve framing problems in risk assessment or measurement (although some argue that risk cannot be measured, only assessed) is to ensure that scenarios, as a strict rule, must include unpopular and perhaps unbelievable (to the group) high-impact low-probability "threat" and/or "vision" events. This permits participants in risk assessment to raise others' fears or personal ideals by way of completeness, without others concluding that they have done so for any reason other than satisfying this formal requirement.

For example, an intelligence analyst with a scenario for an attack by hijacking might have been able to insert mitigation for this threat into the U.S. budget. It would be admitted as a formal risk with a nominal low probability. This would permit coping with threats even though the threats were dismissed by the analyst's superiors. Even small investments in diligence on this matter might have disrupted or prevented the attack—or at least "hedged" against the risk that an administration might be mistaken.

Fear as intuitive risk assessment

For the time being, people rely on their fear and hesitation to keep them out of the most profoundly unknown circumstances.

In The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker argues that "True fear is a gift. It is a survival signal that sounds only in the presence of danger. Yet unwarranted fear has assumed a power over us that it holds over no other creature on Earth. It need not be this way." Gavin de Becker (born October 26, 1954) [1] is an American specialist in security issues, especially for governments, corporations, and celebrities. ...

Risk could be said to be the way we collectively measure and share this "true fear"—a fusion of rational doubt, irrational fear, and a set of unquantified biases from our own experience.

The field of behavioral finance focuses on human risk-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behavior varies from what analysts call "rational". Risk in that case is the degree of uncertainty associated with a return on an asset. Economics Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman, was an important figure in the development of behavioral finance and economics and continues to write extensively in the field. ... â€œUncertainâ€ redirects here. ... In finance, the return on investment (ROI) or just return is a calculation used to determine whether a proposed investment is wise, and how well it will repay the investor. ... This article is about the business definition. ...

Recognizing and respecting the irrational influences on human decision making may do much to reduce disasters caused by naive risk assessments that pretend to rationality but in fact merely fuse many shared biases together.

Risk in auditing

The audit risk model can be analytically expressed as:

AR = IR x CR x DR

Where AR is audit risk, IR is inherent risk, and DR is detection risk. Audit risk is a term that is commonly applied in relation to the audit of the financial statements of an entity. ...

References

1. ^ http://www.theiia.org/guidance/standards-and-practices/professional-practices-framework/standards/standards-for-the-professional-practice-of-internal-auditing/?search=glossary&C=816&I=2343

Articles & Papers

• Clark, L., Manes, F., Antoun, N., Sahakian, B. J., & Robbins, T. W. (2003). "The contributions of lesion laterality and lesion volume to decision-making impairment following frontal lobe damage." Neuropsychologia, 41, 1474-1483.
• Drake, R. A. (1985). "Decision making and risk taking: Neurological manipulation with a proposed consistency mediation." Contemporary Social Psychology, 11, 149-152.
• Drake, R. A. (1985). "Lateral asymmetry of risky recommendations." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 11, 409-417.
• Hansson, Sven Ove. (2007). "Risk", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2007 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming [5].
• Holton, Glyn A. (2004). "Defining Risk", Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19–25. A paper exploring the foundations of risk. (PDF file)
• Knight, F. H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Chicago: Houghton Mifflin Company. (Cited at: [6], § I.I.26.)
• Kruger, Daniel J., Wang, X.T., & Wilke, Andreas (2007) "Towards the development of an evolutionarily valid domain-specific risk-taking scale" Evolutionary Psychology (PDF file)
• Miller, L. (1985). "Cognitive risk taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy I. The synthesis of fragmented visual information." Neuropsychologia, 23, 359 369.
• Miller, L., & Milner, B. (1985). "Cognitive risk taking after frontal or temporal lobectomy II. The synthesis of phonemic and semantic information." Neuropsychologia, 23, 371 379.

Books

Historian David A. Moss's book When All Else Fails explains the U.S. government's historical role as risk manager of last resort.
Peter L. Bernstien. Against the Gods ISBN 0-471-29563-9. Risk explained and its appreciation by man traced from earliest times through all the major figures of their ages in mathematical circles.
Porteous, Bruce T.; Pradip Tapadar (2005). Economic Capital and Financial Risk Management for Financial Services Firms and Conglomerates. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 1-4039-3608-0.  David A. Moss is a writer and professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. ... ...

Societies

Results from FactBites:

 Your Disease Risk (83 words) Welcome to Your Disease Risk, the source on prevention. Here, you can find out your risk of developing five of the most important diseases in the United States and get personalized tips for preventing them. Developed over the past ten years by the Harvard Center for Cancer Prevention, Your Disease Risk collects the latest scientific evidence on disease risk factors into one easy-to-use tool.
 Palisade Corporation - Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, Statistical Analysis, and Optimization Software (277 words) @RISK in Corporate Finance at Illinois State Dr. Domingo Castelo Joaquin at Illinois State University guides students in using @RISK for real options analysis, as well as capital budgeting, cash budgeting, capacity planning, and international portfolio diversification. @RISK Combats Avian FluThe Royal Veterinary College (RVC), the UKs largest vet school, uses @RISK to augment its epidemiology skills when understanding the risks associated with specific diseases. In the case of avian flu the RVC is able to assist in containing something that is widely perceived as highly threatening.
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