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Encyclopedia > Predictive validity

In psychometrics, predictive validity is the extent to which a scale predicts scores on some criterion measure. For information regarding the parapsychology phenomenon of distance knowledge, see psychometry. ... Scaling is the measurement of a variable in such a way that it can be expressed on a continuum. ...

For example, the validity of a cognitive test for job performance is the correlation between test scores and, say, supervisor performance ratings. Such a cognitive test would have predictive validity if the observed correlation were statistically significant. In statistics a valid measure is one which is measuring what it is supposed to measure. ...

Predictive validity shares similarities with concurrent validity in that both are generally measured as correlations between a test and some criterion measure. In a study of concurrent validity the test is administered at the same time as the criterion is collected. This is a common method of developing validity evidence for employment tests: A test is administered to incumbent employees, then a rating of those employees' job performance is obtained (often, as noted above, in the form of a supervisor rating). Note the possibility for restriction of range both in test scores and performance scores: The incumbent employees are likely to be a more homogeneous and higher performing group than the applicant pool at large. Concurrent validity is demonstrated where a test correlates well with a measure that has previously been validated. ...

In a study of predictive validity, the test scores are collected first; then at some later time the criterion measure is collected. Here the example is slightly different: Tests are administered, perhaps to job applicants, and then after those individuals work in the job for a year, their test scores are correlated with their first year job performance scores. Another relevant example is SAT scores: These are validated by collecting the scores during the examinee's senior year and high school and then waiting a year (or more) to correlate the scores with their first year college GPA. Thus predictive validity provides somewhat more useful data about test validity because it has greater fidelity to the real situation in which the test will be used. After all, most tests are administered to find out something about future behavior.

As with many aspects of social science, the magnitude of the correlations obtained from predictive validity studies is usually not high. A typical predictive validity for an employment test might obtain a correlation in the neighborhood of r=.35. Higher values are occasionally seen and lower values are very common. Nonetheless the utility (that is the benefit obtained by making decisions using the test) provided by a test with a utility of .35 can be quite substantial. In economics, utility is a measure of the happiness or satisfaction gained consuming good and services. ...

Results from FactBites:

 PA 765: Validity (4352 words) Be less concerned about defining and differentiating the types of validity (researchers disagree on the definitions and types, and yes, they do overlap) and be more concerned about all the types of questions one should ask about the validity of research (researchers agree on the importance of the questions). That is, when factor analysis is used to validate the inclusion of a set of indicator variables in the scale for a construct, the researcher is assuming a linear, additive model. Discriminant validity, the second major type of construct validity, refers to the principle that the indicators for different constructs should not be so highly correlated as to lead one to conclude that they measure the same thing.
 Animal Models of Psychiatric Disorders (9678 words) Predictive validity is generally defined as the ability of a test to predict a criterion that is of interest to the investigator (14). The predictive validity in terms of pharmacological isomorphism of the model is indicated by the fact that pharmacological treatments clinically effective in depression, such as tricyclics, MAO inhibitors, atypical antidepressants, and electroconvulsive shock therapy are effective in reducing the behavioral and "physical" abnormalities seen in animals exposed to uncontrollable stress (87, 88). Evidence for the predictive validity of this model derives from the finding that the post-cocaine elevations in thresholds were reversed by administration of either the dopamine agonist bromocriptine or the tricyclic desmethylimipramine (52).
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