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Encyclopedia > Prediction

A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast. Look up Future in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... Look up forecast in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ...


The etymology of this word is Latin (from præ- "before" plus dicere "to say"). Not to be confused with Entomology, the study of insects. ... Latin is an ancient Indo-European language originally spoken in Latium, the region immediately surrounding Rome. ...

The Old Farmer's Almanac is famous in the US for its long-range weather predictions.

Contents

Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged with Farmers Almanac. ...

Informal prediction (hypothesis)

Outside the rigorous context of science, prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion. Look up Hypothesis in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ...


A prediction of this kind might be valid and useful if the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data. Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists. Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis on which to develop reasonable expectations about the future. In logic, the form of an argument is valid precisely if it cannot lead from true premises to a false conclusion. ... Authority- is a very talented rocknroll band out of Columbia, S.C. This power rock trio has its roots in rock, funk, hardcore, and a dash of hip hop. ... (This article discusses the soundess notion of informal logic. ... In the fields of science, engineering, industry and statistics, accuracy is the degree of conformity of a measured or calculated quantity to its actual (true) value. ... Various meters Measurement is the estimation of a physical quantity such as length, temperature, or time. ... Futurists is a term often used to describe management consultants who advise corporations on a wide range of global trends, risk management and potential market opportunities. ...


Opinion Polls

In politics it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections (or assess the popularity of politicians) through the use of opinion polls. prediction games have been used by many corporations and goverments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events with amazing accuracy. The Politics series Politics Portal This box:      Politics is defined as a group of people who are influenced to change laws and other such things to make the world a better place the process by which groups of people make decisions. ... An election is a decision making process whereby people vote for preferred political candidates or parties to act as representatives in government. ... A politician is an individual involved in politics, sometimes this may include political scientists. ... Opinion polls are surveys of opinion using sampling. ... Prediction games allow users to guess the outcome of future events. ...


Supernatural (prophecy)

Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by resorting to paranormal or supernatural means, such as prophecy or by observing omens. Disciplines including water divining, astrology, numerology, and fortune telling, along with many other forms of divination, have been used for centuries or even millennia to predict or attempt to predict the future. So far none of these means of prediction have been proven under controlled conditions and are heavily criticised by scientists and skeptics. Paranormal is an umbrella term used to describe a wide variety of reported anomalous phenomena. ... Look up Supernatural in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... This article or section seems to describe future events as if they have already occurred. ... now. ... Dowsing is a controversial practice which proponents claim empowers them to find water, metals, gem stones, and hidden objects by carrying or waving a stick or other apparatus over a piece of land and watching for any movement. ... Hand-coloured version of the anonymous Flammarion woodcut. ... Numerology is any of many systems, traditions or beliefs in a mystical or esoteric relationship between numbers and physical objects or living things. ... Fortune teller redirects here. ... This article is about the religious practice of divination. ... For a List of scientists, see: List of anthropologists List of astronomers List of biologists List of chemists List of computer scientists List of economists List of engineers List of geologists List of inventors List of mathematicians List of meteorologists List of physicists Scientist pairs List of scientist pairs See... Skepticism (Commonwealth spelling: Scepticism) can mean: Philosophical skepticism - a philosophical position in which people choose to critically examine whether the knowledge and perceptions that they have are actually true, and whether or not one can ever be said to have absolutely true knowledge; or Scientific skepticism - a scientific, or practical...


Anticipatory science forecasts

In a scientific context, a prediction is a rigorous (often quantitative) statement forecasting what will happen under specific conditions, typically expressed in the form If A is true, then B will also be true. The scientific method is built on testing assertions which are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies. Image File history File links Broom_icon. ... Scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena and acquiring new knowledge, as well as for correcting and integrating previous knowledge. ... From Latin ex- + -periri (akin to periculum attempt). ...


A scientific theory whose assertions are not in accordance with observations and evidence will probably be rejected. Theories that make no testable predictions remain protosciences until testable predictions become known to the community. In mathematics, theory is used informally to refer to a body of knowledge about mathematics. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ...


Additionally, if new theories generate many new predictions, they are often highly valued, for they can be quickly and easily confirmed or falsified (see predictive power). In many scientific fields, desirable theories are those which predict a large number of events from relatively few underlying principles. In science and the philosophy of science, falsifiability is the logical property of empirical statements, related to contingency and defeasibility, that they must admit of logical counterexamples. ... The New York Times reported on Einsteins confirmed prediction. ...


Quantum physics is an unusual field of science because it enables scientists to make predictions on the basis of probability. Fig. ... Probability is the chance that something is likely to happen or be the case. ...


Mathematical models and computer models are frequently used to both describe the behaviour of something, and predict its future behaviour. A mathematical model is an abstract model that uses mathematical language to describe the behaviour of a system. ... A computer simulation or a computer model is a computer program which attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system. ...


In microprocessors, branch prediction permits to avoid pipeline emptying at microcode branchings. Engineering is a field that involves predicting failure and avoiding it through component or system redundancy. A microprocessor is a programmable digital electronic component that incorporates the functions of a central processing unit (CPU) on a single semiconducting integrated circuit (IC). ... In computer architecture, a branch predictor is the part of a processor that determines whether a conditional branch in the instruction flow of a program is likely to be taken or not. ... Engineering is the design, analysis, and/or construction of works for practical purposes. ... In engineering, the duplication of critical components of a system with the intention of increasing reliability of the system, usually in the case of a backup or fail-safe, is called redundancy. ...


Some fields of science are notorious for the difficulty of accurate prediction and forecasting, such as software reliability, natural disasters, pandemics, demography, population dynamics and meteorology. Software reliability is one of a number of aspects of computer software which can be taken into consideration when determining the quality of the software. ... Natural Disasters is a young rap group made up of five young teens from the Chicago suburbs. ... This article is about outbreaks of disease. ... Map of countries by population Population growth showing projections for later this century Demography is the statistical study of human populations. ... Population dynamics is the study of marginal and long-term changes in the numbers, individual weights and age composition of individuals in one or several populations, and biological and environmental processes influencing those changes. ... Satellite image of Hurricane Hugo with a polar low visible at the top of the image. ...


Example of scientific hypothesis and prediction

In the 1840s the renowned Hungarian physician Ignaz Semmelweis noticed that women giving birth in the Vienna lying-in hospital were dying in one building, but surviving in another. Ignaz Semmelweis (1860 portrait): advised handwashing with a chlorinated-lime solution in 1847. ...


Upon considering the cause, he found that the surviving women were attended by midwives and not by student physicians. Thus he proposed the hypothesis that the physicians were a factor in the deaths. This proposition impelled Semmelweis to refine the factor. What was the difference between the midwives and the doctors? After more thought, Semmelweis decided that the cadavers which the student doctors were touching must be part of the factor. // Midwifery is the term traditionally used to describe the art of assisting a woman through childbirth. ... The word physician should not be confused with physicist, which means a scientist in the area of physics. ...


What could the doctors do to avoid the factor? Semmelweis predicted that, if the doctors were to wash their hands, then the cadaver factor will be avoided. Semmelweis therefore instructed the student doctors to wash their hands, and the women who were attended by the doctors survived. Thus his prediction was successful, and his hypothesis was validated. (Semmelweis, 1861. The Etiology, Understanding, and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever)


Other examples abound in the history of science, ranging from expected predictions which did not occur (such as the Michelson-Morley experiment) to new and radical predictions which shockingly confirmed one theory over another (such as the bending of light around the sun seen in the 1919 eclipse, a prediction of Albert Einstein's theory of General relativity). Science is a body of empirical and theoretical knowledge, produced by a global community of researchers, making use of specific techniques for the observation and explanation of real phenomena, this techne summed up under the banner of scientific method. ... The Michelson-Morley experiment, one of the most important and famous experiments in the history of physics, was performed in 1887 by Albert Michelson and Edward Morley at what is now Case Western Reserve University, and is considered by some to be the first strong evidence against the theory of... Year 1919 (MCMXIX) was a common year starting on Wednesday (link will display the full calendar). ... Total eclipse redirects here. ... Albert Einstein ( ) (March 14, 1879 – April 18, 1955) was a German-born theoretical physicist who is best known for his theory of relativity and specifically mass-energy equivalence, . He was awarded the 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the... General relativity (GR) (aka general theory of relativity (GTR)) is the geometrical theory of gravitation published by Albert Einstein in 1915/16. ...


Finance

Mathematical models of stock market behaviour are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Consequently, stock investors may anticipate or predict a stock market boom, or fail to anticipate or predict a stock market crash. A stock market is a market for the trading of company stock, and derivatives of same; both of these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately. ... A Stock Trader or Stock Investor is a securities professional or firm, who buys and sells securities, such as stocks and bonds. ... A stock market boom is a sudden dramatic gain of value of shares of stock in corporations. ... Black Monday (1987) on the Dow Jones Industrial Average A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market. ...


Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games Prediction games allow users to guess the outcome of future events. ...


An actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk, such that the risk(s) can be mitigated. Damage from Hurricane Katrina. ... 2003 US mortality (life) table, Table 1, Page 1 Actuarial science applies mathematical and statistical methods to finance and insurance, particularly to the assessment of risk. ... Lets talk about risk control strategies, anyone with more information and willing to share, please do so. ...


For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table to predict life expectancy. Insurance, in law and economics, is a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent loss. ... In actuarial science, a life table (sometimes called a mortality table) is basically a table which shows, for a person at each age, what the probability is that they die before their next birthday. ... World map of human life expectancy, 2005 Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average length of survival of a living thing. ...


Prediction in fiction

Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means. A future history is a postulated history of the future that some science fiction authors construct as a common background for fiction. ...


In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events. The Sorceress by John William Waterhouse Magic and sorcery are the influencing of events, objects, people and physical phenomena by mystical, paranormal or supernatural means. ... This article or section seems to describe future events as if they have already occurred. ... John Ronald Reuel Tolkien CBE (January 3, 1892 – September 2, 1973) was an English philologist, writer and university professor, best known as the author of The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings. ... The Lord of the Rings is an epic high fantasy novel written by the British academic J. R. R. Tolkien. ... Galadriel is a fictional character created by J. R. R. Tolkien, appearing in The Lord of the Rings. ...


In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Philip Kindred Dick (December 16, 1928 – March 2, 1982) was an American writer, mostly known for his works of science fiction; additional to forty-four books currently in print, Dick wrote several short stories and minor works published in pulp magazines. ...


In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future. Hari Seldons holographic image, pictured on a paperback edition of Foundation, appears at various times in the First Foundations history, to guide it through the social and economic crises that befall it. ... Isaac Asimov (January 2?, 1920? – April 6, 1992, IPA: , originally Исаак Озимов but now transcribed into Russian as Айзек Азимов) was a Russian-born American author and professor of biochemistry, a highly successful and exceptionally prolific writer best known for his works of science fiction and for his popular science books. ... Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science in Isaac Asimovs Foundation universe, which combined history, psychology and mathematical statistics to create a (nearly) exact science of the behavior of very large populations of people, such as the Galactic Empire. ...


In Frank Herbert's sequels to Dune, his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a Golden Path out of the trap. Frank Patrick Herbert (October 8, 1920 – February 11, 1986) was a critically acclaimed and commercially successful American science fiction author. ... Dune is a science fiction novel written by Frank Herbert and published in 1965. ... The fictional Dune universe, or Duniverse, is the political, scientific, and social setting of author Frank Herberts six-book Dune series of science fiction novels. ...


In Ursula K. Le Guin's The Left Hand of Darkness, the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device. Ursula Kroeber Le Guin [] (born October 21, 1929) is an American author. ... This article or section may contain original research or unverified claims. ...


See also

There were people who predicted the December 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union before the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989. ... There have been many Famous predictions of different kinds, such as predictions made by scientists based on the scientific method, the theoretical non-fiction predictions of social and technological change of futurologists, the economic forecasts of economists regarding financial markets, wealth and resources, philosophical predictions of the perfectibility of man... In statistics, a prediction interval bears the same relationship to a future observation that a confidence interval bears to an unobservable population parameter. ... In statistics, regression analysis examines the relation of a dependent variable (response variable) to specified independent variables (predictors). ... Transportation forecasting is the process of estimating the number of vehicles or travelers that will use a specific transportation facility in the future. ... Future studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. ... A series of measurements of a process may be treated as a time series, and then trend estimation is the application of statistical techniques to make and justify statements about trends in the data. ... Modern weather predictions aid in timely evacuations and potentially save lives and property damage Weather map of Europe, 10 December 1887 Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. ... In philosophy, physics, and other fields, a thought experiment (from the German Gedankenexperiment) is an attempt to solve a problem using the power of human imagination. ... Hand-coloured version of the anonymous Flammarion woodcut. ... Prediction games allow users to guess the outcome of future events. ...

Bibliography

  • Turchin, P., 2007. Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5484010020

Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ...

External links

  • www.sawitcoming.com Sawitcoming.com: predict, vote, gloat.
  • "advancedtargeting.blogspot.com" Advanced Targeting Corporation, a national leader in predictive modeling, provides current predictions on stocks, sports, and current events.
  • whoswrong.com Accountability for public prediction-makers.
  • predicto.net User generated predictions of future events.
  • Apollo's Arrow : The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything A book by mathematician David Orrell
  • "Predicting the future: it's becoming a science", Cosmos magazine, September 2006
  • Future Predictions for Year 2020 and Beyond.
  • www.itoldyouso.com Community for making predictions on life's events.
  • Predictions for the 21st Century by Arthur C. Clarke

  Results from FactBites:
 
Prediction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (1028 words)
A prediction of this kind might be valid and useful if the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data.
In politics it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections (or assess the popularity of politicians) through the use of opinion polls.
Predictions have often been made, in pre-scientific times and still today, by resorting to paranormal or supernatural means, such as prophecy.
Prediction - definition of Prediction in Encyclopedia (503 words)
Prediction of future events is an ancient human wish.
However, the desire to make predictions remains as strong as ever, and is an important part of almost every aspect of human life.
In a scientific context, a prediction is a rigorous (often quantitative) statement about what will happen under specific conditions, typically expressed in the form "If A is true, then B will also be true." The scientific method is built on testing predictions which are logical consequences of scientific theories.
  More results at FactBites »

 
 

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