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Encyclopedia > Peak oil
Peak oil
Articles in this series:
Peak oil
Mitigation of peak oil
Hubbert peak theory
Related articles
Energy Portal
Sustainable development Portal

Peak oil is the point or timeframe at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Peak oil - refers to the theory of energy resource depletion and the social, economic, political consequences of energy depletion. ... The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... It has been suggested that this article be split into articles entitled Peak oil and Hubbert peak theory, accessible from a disambiguation page. ... Image File history File links Crystal_128_energy. ... Image File history File links Sustainable_development. ... Pumpjack pumping an oil well near Lubbock, Texas Ignacy Łukasiewicz - creator of the process of refining of kerosene from crude oil. ... The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a Geologist by education and a geophysicist by profession who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ... It has been suggested that this article be split into articles entitled Peak oil and Hubbert peak theory, accessible from a disambiguation page. ...


Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions as to what exactly these negative effects will be vary greatly. Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert of Hubberts peak fame, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. ... Matthew Simmons. ... The Green Revolution was the worldwide transformation of agriculture that led to significant increases in agricultural production between the 1940s and 1960s. ... This article or section is not written in the formal tone expected of an encyclopedia article. ... The rise of technology has allowed our environment to be characterized as a global one. ...


If political and economic change only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak. The Export Land Model shows that the amount of oil available internationally drops much more quickly than production in exporting countries because the exporting countries maintain an internal growth in demand. Shortfalls in production (and therefore supply) would cause extreme price inflation, unless demand is mitigated with planned conservation measures and use of alternatives, which would need to be implemented 20 years before the peak.[1] The Export Land Model, or Export-Land Model, refers to work done by Dallas geologist Jeffrey Brown, building on the work of others, and discussed widely on The Oil Drum. ... The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... For the physical concepts, see conservation of energy and energy efficiency. ...


More optimistic models, which assume a delay of peak production until the 2020s or 2030s and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, show the price at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel sources are used as transport fuels and fuel substitution in general occurs. More pessimistic predictions operate on the thesis that the peak has already occurred[2][3][4][5] or will occur shortly[6] and predict a global depression, perhaps even leading to a collapse of industrial global civilization as the various feedback mechanisms of the global market cause a disastrous chain reaction. “Positive Attitude” redirects here. ... The 2020s is the 3rd decade of the 21st century of the Anno Domini (common) era. ... Millennia: 2nd millennium - 3rd millennium - 4th millennium Centuries: 20th century - 21st century - 22nd century Decades: 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s - 2030s - 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s Years: 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 The decade as a whole This decade is expected to be called the... Invest redirects here. ... The definition of alternative fuel varies according to the context of its usage. ... In economics and business, the price is the assigned numerical monetary value of a good, service or asset. ... For other uses, see Fuel (disambiguation). ... Pessimists see the world as uninviting and cruel. ... In macroeconomics, a Recession is a decline in any countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. ... Central New York City. ... For the superhero, see Feedback (Dark Horse Comics). ... Look up Market in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ...

A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956.
Peak oil depletion scenarios graph which depicts cumulative published depletion studies by ASPO and other depletion analysts.
Peak oil depletion scenarios graph which depicts cumulative published depletion studies by ASPO and other depletion analysts.

Contents

Image File history File links Hubbert_peak_oil_plot. ... Image File history File links Hubbert_peak_oil_plot. ... Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a Geologist by education and a geophysicist by profession who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ... Image File history File links Download high-resolution version (1258x963, 166 KB) World production forecast Made by Khebab of The Oil Drum http://www. ... Image File history File links Download high-resolution version (1258x963, 166 KB) World production forecast Made by Khebab of The Oil Drum http://www. ...

Supply

Further information: Peak oil/Table of largest oil fields
2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union

Peak oil is concerned with the production flow of oil, measured as the quantity extracted over time. Recoverable reserves are important only in that they must exist before any oil can be extracted and delivered to the market. ^ a b The Elephant of All Elephants . ... Image File history File links Size of this preview: 800 × 553 pixelsFull resolution (853 × 590 pixel, file size: 86 KB, MIME type: image/png)This graph shows that oil production has already peaked in non-OPEC, non-former Soviet Union countries. ... Image File history File links Size of this preview: 800 × 553 pixelsFull resolution (853 × 590 pixel, file size: 86 KB, MIME type: image/png)This graph shows that oil production has already peaked in non-OPEC, non-former Soviet Union countries. ... Not to be confused with APEC. OPEC Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international cartel[1][2] made up of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Ecuador (which rejoined OPRC in November 2007) . The...


Reserves

Main article: Oil reserves

Conventionally measured crude oil reserves include all crude oil that is technically producible from reservoirs through a well bore using any primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary method. Not included are liquids from mined deposits (tar sands; oil shales) or created liquids (gas-to-liquids; coal-to-liquids).[citation needed] Oil shale Oil shale is a general term applied to a fine-grained sedimentary rock containing significant traces of kerogen (a solid mixture of organic chemical compounds) that have not been buried for sufficient time to produce conventional fossil fuels. ...


Oil reserves are classified into categories - proven, probable and possible. Proven reserves are claimed to be "Reasonably Certain" to be producible using current technology at current prices, and are intended to be 90% certain of containing the amount specified or more. The "Probable Reserves" category has an intended probability of 50%, and the "Possible Reserves" an intended probability of 10%.[citation needed] Some care must be taken with these categories, as the majority of reserves have not been subject to outside audit or examination. By the mid 20th century humans had achieved a mastery of technology sufficient to leave the surface of the Earth for the first time and explore space. ... Probability is the likelihood that something is the case or will happen. ...


Most of the easy-to-extract oil has been found.[citation needed] Recent oil exploration is being carried out in areas where oil is much more expensive to extract, such as in extremely deep wells, extreme downhole temperatures, environmentally sensitive areas or where high-technology will be required to extract the oil. Oil companies such as Exxon Mobil, Shell, and BP are having to spend more money on oil exploration due to a shortage of drilling rigs, increases in steel prices, an increase in service charges - like drilling rig rates, and overall increases in costs due to complexity.[7][8] Oil exploration is the search by petroleum geologists for hydrocarbon deposits beneath the Earths surface. ... Wikipedia does not yet have an article with this exact name. ... Exxon Mobil Corporation or ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), headquartered in Irving, Texas, is an oil producer and distributor formed on November 30, 1999, by the merger of Exxon and Mobil. ... Royal Dutch Shell plc is a multinational oil company of British and Dutch origins. ... This article is about the energy corporation. ... Drilling Rig, Gas well in Northern Italy A drilling rig is a machine which creates holes (usually called boreholes) and/or shafts in the ground. ... For other uses, see Steel (disambiguation). ... In economics, business, and accounting, a cost is the value of inputs that have been used up to produce something, and hence are not available for use anymore. ...


The Energy Watch Group (EWG) 2007 report shows total world Proved plus Probable reserves to be between 854 and 1255 Gb (around 30 to 40 years of supply if the growth of demand were to stop immediately). The major discrepancies come from problems with the accuracy in OPEC's self reported numbers. Besides the possibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons (during periods of no substantial discoveries), over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production. 1255 Gb is therefore a best case scenario.[9] Analysts have suggested that each of the OPEC member nations also has economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves, due to the OPEC quota system, which allows greater output for countries with greater reserves.[10]


The following table shows suspicious jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production:

Declared reserves with suspicious increases in bold purple (in billions of barrels) from Colin Campbell, SunWorld, 80'-95
Year Abu Dhabi Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela
1980 28.00 1.40 58.00 31.00 65.40 163.35 17.87
1981 29.00 1.40 57.50 30.00 65.90 165.00 17.95
1982 30.60 1.27 57.00 29.70 64.48 164.60 20.30
1983 30.51 1.44 55.31 41.00 64.23 162.40 21.50
1984 30.40 1.44 51.00 43.00 63.90 166.00 24.85
1985 30.50 1.44 48.50 44.50 90.00 169.00 25.85
1986 31.00 1.40 47.88 44.11 89.77 168.80 25.59
1987 31.00 1.35 48.80 47.10 91.92 166.57 25.00
1988 92.21 4.00 92.85 100.00 91.92 166.98 56.30
1989 92.20 4.00 92.85 100.00 91.92 169.97 58.08
1990 92.20 4.00 93.00 100.00 95.00 258.00 59.00
1991 92.20 4.00 93.00 100.00 94.00 258.00 59.00
1992 92.20 4.00 93.00 100.00 94.00 258.00 62.70
2004 92.20 4.00 132.00 115.00 99.00 259.00 78.00

Kuwait, for example, was reported by a January 2006 issue of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly to have only 48 Gb in reserve, of which only 24 are "fully proven." This report was based on "leaks of confidential documents" from Kuwait, and has not been formally denied by the Kuwaiti authorities. Additionally, the reported 1.5 Gb of oil burned off by Iraqi soldiers in the first Gulf War[11] are conspicuously missing from Kuwait's figures. Abu Dhabi or Abu Zaby (Arabic language: أبوظبي) is the largest of the seven emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates and was also the largest of the former Trucial States. ... Coordinates: , Emirate Government  - Emir Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Area [1]  - Metro 4,114 km² (1,588. ... Year 1980 (MCMLXXX) was a leap year starting on Tuesday (link displays the 1980 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1981 (MCMLXXXI) was a common year starting on Thursday (link displays the 1981 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1982 (MCMLXXXII) was a common year starting on Friday (link displays the 1982 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1983 (MCMLXXXIII) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays the 1983 Gregorian calendar). ... This article is about the year. ... This article is about the year. ... Year 1986 (MCMLXXXVI) was a common year starting on Wednesday (link displays 1986 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1987 (MCMLXXXVII) was a common year starting on Thursday (link displays 1987 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1988 (MCMLXXXVIII) was a leap year starting on Friday (link displays 1988 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1989 (MCMLXXXIX) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays 1989 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1990 (MCMXC) was a common year starting on Monday (link displays the 1990 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1991 (MCMXCI) was a common year starting on Tuesday (link will display the 1991 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 1992 (MCMXCII) was a leap year starting on Wednesday (link will display full 1992 Gregorian calendar). ... Year 2004 (MMIV) was a leap year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar. ... Kuwaiti oil wells on fire. ...


Quantifying reserves

In forecasting the date of peak oil — and in testing the validity of Hubbert's theory — one difficulty is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as 'proven'. This was best exemplified by the 2004 scandal surrounding the 'evaporation' of 20% of Shell's reserves.[12] For the most part, the numbers of 'proven reserves' are given by the three major players of the oil market: the oil companies, the producer states and the consumer states. All three have reasons to overstate their proven reserves; oil companies may look to increase their potential worth, producer countries are bestowed a stronger international stature, and governments of consumer countries may seek a means to foster sentiments of security and stability within their economies and among consumers. Many worrying signs concerning the depletion of 'proven reserves' have emerged in recent years.[13][14] Analysts believe that each of the OPEC member nations may also have exaggerated their reserves in response to the OPEC quota system, which is gaged on overall reserves, in order to maximize their respective outputs.[15] On the other hand investigative journalist Greg Palast has argued that oil companies have an interest in making oil look more rare than it is in order to justify higher prices.[16] Other analysts have argued that oil producing countries have recently understated the extent of their reserves in order to drive up the price of oil.[17] It has been suggested that this article be split into articles entitled Peak oil and Hubbert peak theory, accessible from a disambiguation page. ... The Shell emblem known as the Pecten Shell Oil Company (SOC) is the Houston, Texas based wholly-owned subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell. ... The Politics series Politics Portal This box:      International relations (IR), a branch of political science, is the study of foreign affairs and global issues among states within the international system, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations (IGOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and multinational corporations (MNCs). ... For other uses, see Security (disambiguation). ... For the concept in cosmology, see cosmic inflation. ... Greg Palast is a New York Times-bestselling author[1] and a journalist for the British Broadcasting Corporation[2] as well as the British newspaper The Observer. ...


The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965.[18] Because of world population growth, oil production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).[19] Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the worlds population. ... Per capita is a Latin phrase meaning for each head. ...


According to the Energy Watch Groups October 2007 report, the amount of oil discovered each year also peaked during the 1960's at around 55 Gb/year, and has been falling steadily since (in 2004/2005 it was about 12 Gb/year). Reserves in effect peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries, though creative methods of recalculating reserves has made this difficult to establish exactly[20]


Unconventional sources

Main articles: Heavy crude oil, Tar sands, and Oil shale

Unconventional sources, such as heavy crude oil, tar sands, and oil shale are not counted as part of oil reserves. However, oil companies can book them as proven reserves after opening a strip mine or thermal facility for extraction. The three major unconventional oil sources are the extra heavy oil in the Orinoco river of Venezuela,[21] the tar sands in the Western Canada Basin,[22] and the oil shale in the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming in the United States.[23][24] It is estimated that these sources account for as much oil as the reserves of the Middle East. The sources are significantly more expensive and more environmentally damaging to extract than conventional sources, however. Heavy crude oil is the type of crude oil which is characterised by the presence of high amount of wax in it, as compared to light crude oil which contains a lesser amount of wax. ... Athabasca Oil Sands Tar sands is a common name of what are more properly called bituminous sands, but also commonly referred to as oil sands or (in Venezuela) extra-heavy oil. ... Oil shale Oil shale is a general term applied to a fine-grained sedimentary rock containing significant traces of kerogen (a solid mixture of organic chemical compounds) that have not been buried for sufficient time to produce conventional fossil fuels. ... Strip mining is the practice of mining a seam of mineral ore by first removing all of the soil and rock that lies on top of it. ... The related terms resource extraction and Resource extraction industry both refer to the practice of locating, acquiring and selling any resource, but typically a natural resource. ... This page is about the Orinoco River, for the Aphra Behn novel see Oroonoko With a length of 2140 km, the Orinoco is one of the largest rivers of South America. ... The Athabasca Oil Sands in Alberta, Canada. ... The Green River Formation is an Eocene geologic formation that records the sedimentation in a series of intermontane lakes. ... Official language(s) English Capital Denver Largest city Denver Largest metro area Denver-Aurora Metro Area Area  Ranked 8th  - Total 104,185 sq mi (269,837 km²)  - Width 280 miles (451 km)  - Length 380 miles (612 km)  - % water 0. ... This article is about the U.S. state. ... Official language(s) English Capital Cheyenne Largest city Cheyenne Area  Ranked 10th  - Total 97,818 sq mi (253,348 km²)  - Width 280 miles (450 km)  - Length 360 miles (580 km)  - % water 0. ... A map showing countries commonly considered to be part of the Middle East The Middle East is a region comprising the lands around the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, a territory that extends from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf. ... This article is about the natural environment. ...


The results of one study suggest that within 15 years all the world’s extra oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources.[25] This will mean increasing reliance on these hard-to-develop unconventional sources of energy. Oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as sulfur, heavy metals and carbon that are energy intensive to extract and leave highly toxic tailings. Oil prices rising over $90 a barrel in 2007 has brought increased attention to potentially mining these sources, which traditionally have not been economically feasible to extract.[26] This article is about the chemical element. ... For other uses, see Heavy metal (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Carbon (disambiguation). ... Tailings (also known as slickens[1]) are the waste left over[2] after removing the gangue from ore. ...


A 2003 article in Discover magazine claimed that thermal depolymerization could be used to manufacture oil indefinitely, out of garbage, sewage, and agricultural waste. The article claimed that the cost of the process was $15 per barrel. [27] A follow up article in 2006 stated that the cost was actually $80 per barrel. [28] Discover Magazine is a science magazine that publishes articles about science. ... Thermal depolymerization (TDP) is a process for the reduction of complex organic materials (usually waste products of various sorts, often known as biomass) into light crude oil. ...


Production

Central to Peak oil is the fact that production capacity in effect dictates supply. Therefore, when production decreases, it becomes the main bottleneck to the petroleum supply/demand equation. Oil consumption in the modern era (2005) has been roughly equivalent to a 1 km x 1 km x 1600 stories volumetric structure.[29] Pumpjack pumping an oil well near Lubbock, Texas Ignacy Łukasiewicz - creator of the process of refining of kerosene from crude oil. ... The Extraction of Petroleum is the process by which usable petroleum is extracted and removed from the earth. ... For other uses, see Bottleneck. ... The supply and demand model describes how prices vary as a result of a balance between product availability at each price (supply) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand). ...


World wide oil production has surpassed annual discoveries since 1980.[30] According to several sources[31][32][33][34][35], world-wide production is currently at or near its maximum.


OPEC had vowed in 2000 to maintain a production level sufficient to keep oil prices between $22-28 a barrel, but this quickly proved impossible. In its 2007 annual report, OPEC projected that the price of oil would remain at around $50-60 per barrel until 2030.[36] Then on November 18, 2007, with oil above $98 a barrel, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, a long time advocate of stabilized oil prices, announced that his country would not increase production in order to lower prices.[37] Given Saudi Arabia's reversal and inability, as the worlds largest oil producer, to lower prices through increased production, it now appears that no nation or organization has the spare production capacity to lower oil prices, suggesting that those major suppliers who have not yet peaked are operating at or near full capacity. [citation needed]


World oil production growth trends, in the short term, have been flat over the last 18 months. Global production averaged 85.24 mbbl/d in 2006, up 0.76 mbbl/d (0.9%), from 84.48 mbbl/d in 2005.[38] Production in Q3 2007 was 85.08 mbbl/d, down 0.62 mbbl/d (0.7%), from the same period a year earlier. Average yearly gains in world oil production from 1987 to 2005 were 1.2 mbbl/d (1.7%), with yearly gains since 1997 ranging from -1.4 mbbl/d, (-1.9%; 1998-1999) to 3.3 mbbl/d (4.1%; 2003-2004).[38]


Of the largest 21 fields, about 9 are already in decline.[39] Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March, 2006,[40] as did the huge Burgan field in Kuwait in November, 2005.[41] Due to past overproduction, Cantarell is now declining rapidly, at a rate of 13% per year.[42] In April, 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year, and its composite decline rate of producing fields is about 2%.[43] This information has been used to argue that Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world and a field responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia's oil production over the last 50 years, has peaked.[44][45] Cantarell Field or Cantarell Complex is the largest oil field in Mexico and one of the largest in the world. ... The onshore Burgan Field in the desert of southeastern Kuwait is one of the worlds largest and richest oil fields. ... Saudi Aramco, the state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia, is the largest oil corporation in the world and the worlds largest in terms of proven crude oil reserves and production. ... Ghawar Field is a large oil field in Saudi Arabia. ...


Many commentators have pointed to the Jack 2 deep water test well in the Gulf of Mexico, announced September 5, 2006,[46] as evidence that there is no imminent peak in global oil production. (This field alone could fuel two-years of current US power consumption.) However, oil discoveries are expected after the peak oil point is reached,[47] and new reserves of oil will be harder to find and extract. The Jack 2 field, for instance, is more than 20,000 feet under the seafloor in 7,000 feet of water, requiring 8.5 kilometers of pipe to reach. Jack is a character in the Tekken fighting game series. ... Gulf of Mexico in 3D perspective. ... is the 248th day of the year (249th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ...


This increasing investment in harder to reach oil is a sign of oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil:[48]

All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found", said William J. Cummings, ExxonMobil's spokesman in Angola. "Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.
OPEC Crude Oil Production 2002-2006. Source:Middle East Economic Survey
OPEC Crude Oil Production 2002-2006. Source:Middle East Economic Survey

Chuck Masters of the United States Geological Survey says: Image File history File links MEESchart. ... Image File history File links MEESchart. ... InsertSLUTTY WHORES≤ non-formatted text here{| class=toccolours border=1 cellpadding=4 style=float: right; margin: 0 0 1em 1em; width: 20em; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 95%; clear: right; |+ United States Geological Survey |- |style= align=center colspan=2| [[Image:USGS logo. ...

Unconventional resources, such as extra heavy oils, tar sands, gas in tight sands, and coal bed methane are not considered [in the USGS 2000 assessment] but they must, nonetheless, be recognized as being present in very large quantities. ... The two major sources of unconventional oil ... are the extra heavy oil in the Orinoco province of Venezuela and the ... tar sands in the Western Canada Basin. Taken together, these resource occurrences, in the Western Hemisphere, are approximately equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East.

In addition to unconventional sources, advances in technology are expected to allow greater extraction from existing sources. Such advances could increase the amount of oil that can be extracted from each well, currently limited at about 40% of a reservoir's oil.[49] Coal bed methane extraction is a method for extracting methane from a coal deposit. ... Please wikify (format) this article or section as suggested in the Guide to layout and the Manual of Style. ... The geographical western hemisphere of Earth, highlighted in yellow. ...


These unconventional sources are not as efficient to produce however, requiring extra energy to refine, resulting in higher production costs and up to three times more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel (or barrel equivalent), as analyzed by industry sites such as Rigzone.[50] Top: Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels as measured in the atmosphere and ice cores. ...


Demand

The demand side of Peak oil is concerned with the consumption of oil measured as the quantity consumed over time. World crude oil demand has grown at an annualized compound rate around 2 percent in recent years. Demand growth is highest in the developing world, particularly in the People's Republic of China and India, and to a lesser extent in Africa and South America. High demand growth primarily results from rapidly rising consumer demand for transportation via vehicles powered with internal combustion engines.[51] The supply and demand model describes how prices vary as a result of a balance between product availability at each price (supply) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand). ... For the Jamaican reggae band, see Third World (band). ... Vehicles are non-living means of transport. ...


The U.S. Department of Energy categorizes national energy use in four broad sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial.[52] In the United States, in contrast to other regions of the world, about 2/3 of all oil use is for transportation, 1/5 goes to industrial uses, and the remainder goes to residential, commercial and electric energy production.[53] The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is a Cabinet-level department of the United States government responsible for energy policy and nuclear safety. ... World power usage in terawatts (TW), 1965-2005. ...


Transportation

Most oil is consumed in transportation, including approximately 66.6% in the United States[54] and 55% worldwide.[55] World demand for oil is set to increase 37% by 2030, according to the US-based Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual report. Demand will hit 118 million barrels per day (bpd) from today's existing 86 million barrels, driven in large part by transport needs.[56] For the physical concepts, see conservation of energy and energy efficiency. ... The Energy Information Administration (EIA), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, collects and disseminates data on energy reserves, production, consumption, distribution, prices, technology, and related international, economic, and financial matters. ...


In his 1992 book Earth in the Balance, Al Gore wrote, "... it ought to be possible to establish a coordinated global program to accomplish the strategic goal of completely eliminating the internal combustion engine over, say, a twenty-five-year period..."[57] Earth in the Balance audio book cover Earth in the Balance (ISBN 0452269350) is a 1992 book written by Al Gore shortly before he was elected Vice President in the 1992 presidential election. ... This article is about the former Vice President of the United States. ...


Population

Further information: World population
World Population Growth
World Population Growth

Because of human population growth, oil production per capita peaked in the 1970s.[19] The world’s population in 2030 is expected to double from 1980, and to be much more industrialized and oil-dependent than it was.[58] Some predictions suggest that worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will have declined to levels from 1980, in which case worldwide demand for oil will significantly outpace its worldwide production.[59] Some physicists maintain that the non-sustainability of oil production per capita has gone undiscussed due to the political correctness implications of suggesting population control.[60] Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the worlds population. ... Image File history File links World_population_history. ... Image File history File links World_population_history. ... Theoretical Human population increase from 10,000 BC – 2000 AD. Population growth is the change in population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals in a population per unit time. ... The Earth Day flag includes a NASA photo. ... Political correctness is the alteration of language to redress real or alleged injustices and discrimination or to avoid offense. ... Population control is the practice of limiting population increase, usually by reducing the birth rate. ...


One factor that may ameliorate this effect is the rapid decline of population growth rate since the 1970s. In 1970, the population growth rate was 2.1%. By 2006, it had declined to 1.1%. Meanwhile, oil production has continued to grow strongly. From 2000 to 2005, human population only grew by 6.3%, whereas global oil production increased by 8.2%. [61]


Supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern agriculture,[62] so coming decades could see spiraling food prices and unprecedented famine affecting human populations across the globe.[63][64] Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer contends that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds. Current U.S. population of more than 300 million as well as world population exceeding 6.6 billion are, according to Pfeiffer, unsustainable.[65][66][67] <nowiki>Insert non-formatted text hereBold text</nowiki>A famine is a social and economic crisis that is commonly accompanied by widespread malnutrition, starvation, epidemic and increased mortality. ... ‹ The template below (Expand) is being considered for deletion. ... The United States Census of year 2000, conducted by the Census Bureau, determined the resident population of the United States on April 1, 2000, to be 281,421,906, an increase of 13. ... Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the worlds population. ...


Industrialization

As countries develop, industry, rapid urbanization and higher living standards drive up energy use. The energy supply to drive industrialization mostly comes from oil, and thriving economies such as China and India are quickly becoming large consumers of oil. China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002,[68] indicating a doubling rate of less than 10 years. It currently imports roughly half its oil, with predictions of swift continued growth in coming years. India's oil imports are expected to more than triple to some 5 million barrels a day by 2020.[69] Cars and trucks will cause almost 75% of the increase in oil consumption by India and China between 2001 and 2025.[70] As more countries develop, the demand for oil will increase further. A developing country is a country with low average income compared to the world average. ... Economic development is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants. ... The Standard of living refers to the quality and quantity of goods and services available to people. ...


Predictions and possible consequences of Peak Oil

The Hirsch Report

Main article: Hirsch report

In 2005, the US Department of Energy published a report titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.[71] Known as the Hirsch report, it stated, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." The Hirsch report is a report done for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. ... The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is a Cabinet-level department of the United States government responsible for energy policy and nuclear safety. ... The Hirsch report is a report done for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. ...


Conclusions from the Hirsch Report and three scenarios

  • World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
  • Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
  • Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
  • The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from the transportation sector).
  • Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
    • 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
    • A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
    • Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.
  • Both supply and demand will require attention.
  • It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak).
  • Government intervention will be required.
  • Economic upheaval is not inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.”)
  • More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak time frame.

Possible Scenarios:

  • Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.
  • Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
  • Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

Other predictions

Economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution have, in large part, been due to increased efficiencies in the use of better and higher concentrations of energy in fossil fuels. The use of fossil fuels allows humans to participate in takedown, which is the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that decreasing oil production portends a drastic impact on human culture and modern technological society, which is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel and chemical feedstock. For example, over 90% of transportation in the United States relies on oil. World GDP/capita changed very little for most of human history before the industrial revolution. ... A Watt steam engine, the steam engine that propelled the Industrial Revolution in Britain and the world. ... The term Takedown may refer to: Takedown, the title of a book and film by John Markoff and Tsutomu Shimomura about the capture of Kevin Mitnick Takedown (grappling), a martial arts technique aimed at bringing the opponent to the ground Burnout 3: Takedown, an arcade game Bad Boys: Miami Takedown...


Some envisage a Malthusian catastrophe occurring as oil becomes increasingly inefficient to produce, others have learned from the examples demonstrated in mature basins and applied those operational procedures to these basins to preserve their operational tempo. Since the 1940s, agriculture has dramatically increased its productivity, due largely to the use of chemical pesticides, fertilizers, and increased mechanisation. This process has been called the Green Revolution. The increase in food production has allowed world population to grow dramatically over the last 50 years. Pesticides rely upon oil as a critical ingredient, and fertilizers require natural gas. Farm machinery also requires oil. Arguing that in today's world every joule one eats requires 5-15 joules to produce and deliver, some have speculated that decreasing supply of oil will cause modern industrial agriculture to collapse, leading to a drastic decline in food production, food shortages and possibly even mass starvation. It must be noted, however, that most or all of the uses of fossil fuels in agriculture can be replaced with alternatives. For example, by far the biggest fossil fuel input to agriculture is the use of natural gas as a hydrogen source for the Haber-Bosch fertilizer-creation process[6]. Natural gas is used simply because it is the cheapest currently-available source of hydrogen; were that to change, other sources, such as electrolysis powered by solar energy, could be used to provide the hydrogen for creating fertilizer without relying on fossil fuels. Malthusian catastrophe, sometimes known as a Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis, Malthusian dilemma, Malthusian disaster, Malthusian trap, or Malthusian limit is a return to subsistence-level conditions as a result of agricultural (or, in later formulations, economic) production being eventually outstripped by growth in population. ... The 1940s decade ran from 1940 to 1949. ... A cropduster spreading pesticide. ... The Green Revolution was the worldwide transformation of agriculture that led to significant increases in agricultural production between the 1940s and 1960s. ... The joule (IPA: or ) (symbol: J) is the SI unit of energy. ... This article is about extreme malnutrition. ... The Haber Process (also known as Haber–Bosch process) is the reaction of nitrogen and hydrogen to produce ammonia. ... In chemistry and manufacturing, electrolysis is a method of separating chemically bonded elements and compounds by passing an electric current through them. ... Heat and light from the Sun fuel life on Earth. ...


Oil shortages may force a move to lower input "organic agriculture" methods, which may be more labor-intensive and require a population shift from urban to rural areas, reversing the trend towards urbanisation which has predominated in industrial societies; however, some organic farmers using modern organic-farming methods have reported yields as high as those available from conventional farming, but without the use of fossil-fuel-intensive artificial fertilizers or pesticides.[7][8][9][10] Organic farming is a way of farming that avoids the use of synthetic chemicals and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and usually subscribes to the principles of sustainable agriculture. ... Urbanization is the degree of or increase in urban character or nature. ...


Another possible effect would derive from America's transportation and housing infrastructure. A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement designed with the automobile in mind. Current EV technology would allow these living arrangements to continue well into the next millennia but some commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that because of its reliance on the automobile, the suburb is an unsustainable living arrangement; the implications of peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford fuel for their cars, and force them to move to higher density, more walkable areas. In effect, surburbia would comprise the "slums of the future." A movement to deal with this problem early, called "New Urbanism," seeks to develop the suburbs into higher density neighborhoods and use high density, mixed-use forms for new building projects. Illustration of the backyards of a surburban neighbourhood Suburbs are inhabited districts located either on the outer rim of a city or outside the official limits of a city (the term varies from country to country), or the outer elements of a conurbation. ... “Car” and “Cars” redirect here. ... James Howard Kunstler (born 1948) is an American author, social critic, and blogger who is perhaps best known for his book The Geography of Nowhere, a history of suburbia and urban development in the United States. ... Slums in Delhi, India. ... The New urbanism is an American urban design movement that arose in the early 1980s. ...


Mitigation

Main articles: Mitigation of peak oil, Energy conservation, Energy development, and Energy security

To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could have, the Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives at least 10-20 years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time, similar to the plan Sweden anounced in 2005. Such mitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of non-conventional oil. Because mitigation can reduce the consumption of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the Hubbert curve. The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... For the physical concepts, see conservation of energy and energy efficiency. ... Higher electricity use per capita correlates with a higher score on the Human Development Index(1997). ... Energy security, or security of supply, is a key component of energy policy in many countries. ... For other uses, see Society (disambiguation). ... Face-to-face trading interactions on the New York Stock Exchange trading floor. ... The Hirsch report is a report done for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. ... Crude oil prices, 1994-2007 (not adjusted for inflation) In 2005 the government of Sweden announced their intention to make Sweden the first country to break its dependence on petroleum, natural gas and other ‘fossil raw materials’ by 2020. ... The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... The Hubbert curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic curve. ...


Related peaks

The amount of oil discovered each year peaked in the mid 1960's at around 55 Gb/year, and has been falling steadily since then (in 2004/2005 it was about 12 Gb/year)[72]. Reserves in effect peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries. Because of world population growth, oil production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).[19] Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the worlds population. ... Per capita is a Latin phrase meaning for each head. ...


Hubbert's curve has also been used to describe the peak production of other non-renewable resources, such as natural gas, coal, metals, and even renewable resources like water[citation needed] and fish. It has been suggested that this article be split into articles entitled Peak oil and Hubbert peak theory, accessible from a disambiguation page. ... Wyoming coal mine. ... A renewable resource is a natural resource that is not depleted when used by human beings. ...


Current events

Timing

The only reliable way to identify the timing of peak oil will be in retrospect. M. King Hubbert, who devised the peak theory, predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 at 12 gigabarrels per year "if current trends continue".[73] However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy-efficient cars,[74] the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating,[75] and other factors), then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s (see chart on right). The shift to reduced consumption in these areas meant that the projection assumptions were not realized and, hence, oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed to more than double the rate initially projected. Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a Geologist by education and a geophysicist by profession who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ... “bbl” redirects here. ... In economics, consumption refers to the final use of goods and services to provide utility. ... Efficient energy use, sometimes simply called energy efficiency, is using less energy to provide the same level of energy service. ... Electricity (from New Latin ēlectricus, amberlike) is a general term for a variety of phenomena resulting from the presence and flow of electric charge. ... This article is about the fossil fuel. ...


Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has suggested that the global production of conventional oil peaked in the spring of 2004, albeit at a rate of 23 gigabarrels per year rather than Hubbert's 13 gigabarrels per year. During 2004, approximately 24 billion barrels of conventional oil were produced out of the total of 30 billion barrels of oil, the remaining 6 billion barrels coming from heavy oil and tar sands, deep water oil fields, and natural gas liquids (see adjacent ASPO graph). In 2005, the ASPO revised its prediction for a world peak again, from both conventional and non-conventional sources, to the year 2010.[76] These consistent upward revisions are expected in models which do not take into account continually increasing reserve estimates in older accumulations.[77] Colin J. Campbell, Ph. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... Heavy oil may refer to: Fuel oil that contains residual oil left over from distillation. ... Athabasca Oil Sands Tar sands is a common name of what are more properly called bituminous sands, but also commonly referred to as oil sands or (in Venezuela) extra-heavy oil. ... An oil well in Canada. ...


Another peak oil proponent Kenneth S. Deffeyes predicted in his book Beyond Oil - The View From Hubbert's Peak that global oil production would hit a peak on November 25, 2005 (Deffeyes has since revised his claim, and now argues that world oil production peaked on December 16, 2005).[78] Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert of Hubberts peak fame, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. ... is the 329th day of the year (330th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... is the 350th day of the year (351st in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...


Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens has stated that worldwide conventional oil production will top out at 84 MB/day[79] (31 BB/yr), a claim supported by recently published data from the US Energy Information Agency,[80] which suggests global oil production peaked in 2006. An October 2007 retrospective report by the Energy Watch Group concluded that this has indeed happened.[81] Alternately, Albert Bartlett's paper on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy (exponential growth on a finite resource) gives a different insight into peak oil. Official language(s) No official language See languages of Texas Capital Austin Largest city Houston Largest metro area Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington Area  Ranked 2nd  - Total 261,797 sq mi (678,051 km²)  - Width 773 miles (1,244 km)  - Length 790 miles (1,270 km)  - % water 2. ... T. Boone Pickens, Jr. ... Albert A. Bartlett is a retired Emeritus Professor of Physics University of Colorado, Boulder, USA. Professor Bartlett has lectured over 1,500 times on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy. He has famously stated that The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. ... In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ... Rainforest on Fatu-Hiva, Marquesas Islands Natural resources are naturally occurring substances that are considered valuable in their relatively unmodified (natural) form. ...


Sadad Al Husseini, former head of Saudi Aramco's production and exploration, stated in an October 29, 2007 interview that he foresaw oil production remaining flat for the next "10 to 15 years" after which the world's oil resource will be "very severely depleted." Al Husseini also indicated that in his opinion OPEC could realistically maintain 30 MB/day for the conceivable future but that assumptions by the IEA and EIA of large increases to over 45 MB/day are "quite unrealistic."[82] Saudi Aramco, the state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia, is the largest oil corporation in the world and the worlds largest in terms of proven crude oil reserves and production. ... is the 302nd day of the year (303rd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era in the 21st century. ...


Peak oil production—has it happened already?

World Crude Oil Production 1960-2004. Sources: DOE/EIA, IEA
World Crude Oil Production 1960-2004. Sources: DOE/EIA, IEA
World Crude Oil Production 2001-2007. Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency
World Crude Oil Production 2001-2007.[83] Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency

The July 2007 IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report projects a 2% non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2007-2009, reaching 51.0 mb/d in 2008, receding thereafter as the slate of verifiable investment projects diminishes.[84] Image File history File links Crude_NGPL_IEAtotal_1960-2004. ... Image File history File links Crude_NGPL_IEAtotal_1960-2004. ... Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ...

The concept of peak oil production and its timing are emotive subjects which raise intense debate. Much rests on the definition of which segment of global oil production is deemed to be at or approaching peak. Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak.

The report points to only a small amount of supply growth from OPEC producers, with 70% of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Angola as security and investment issues continue to impinge on oil exports from Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.[84] Debate (North American English) or debating (British English) is a formal method of interactive and position representational argument. ... UAE redirects here; for other uses of that term, see UAE (disambiguation) The United Arab Emirates is an oil-rich country situated in the south-east of the Arabian Peninsula in Southwest Asia, comprising seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm al-Quwain. ...


The IEA's plateau contention is refuted by some reports[85] which suggest the IEA uses purely economic models that rely on the ability to raise production and discovery rates at will. Reserves in general have been falling since 1980 when production eclipsed discoveries (notwithstanding suspicious recalculating of reserves discussed in other sections), and several sources believe that Peak Oil occurred sometime in 2006[86][87][88][89]. Matthew Simmons, Chairman of Simmons & Company International, said on October 26, 2006 that global oil production may have peaked in December 2005, though he cautions that further monitoring of production is required to determine if a peak has actually occurred.[90] Matthew Simmons. ... Simmons & Company International is a private investment bank based in Houston, Texas that specializes in energy research, trading, and capital structuring. ... is the 299th day of the year (300th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ...


Saudi Arabia's King Abdulla appears to have seen the writing on the wall as early as 1998, telling his subjects, "The oil boom is over and will not return... All of us must get used to a different lifestyle." Since then he has implemented a series of corruption reforms and government programs intended to lower Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil revenues. The royal family was put on notice to end its history of excess and new industries were created to diversify the national economy.[91]


Analysts from Wood Mackenzie contend that maximum production of oil will not occur before 2014. Kate Dourian, Platts' Middle East editor, has a different opinion. "Some sources say half the world's oil has already been produced, whereas Saudi Aramco is saying there is still another trillion barrels out there." She also states that politics has entered the equation. "Some countries are becoming off limits. Major oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the resource nationalism that's spreading. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves"[92] For other uses, see Politics (disambiguation). ... Eugène Delacroixs Liberty Leading the People, symbolising French nationalism during the July Revolution 1830. ...


Commodities trader Raymond Learsy, author of Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel, contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that oil is a much more finite resource than it is. To back his argument, he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration.[93] He also believes that Peak Oil analysts are conspiring with OPEC and the oil companies to create a "fabricated drama of peak oil" in order to drive up oil prices and profits. It is worth noting oil had risen to a little over $30/barrel at that time. A counter-argument was given in the Huffington Post after he and Steve Andrews, co-founder of ASPO, debated on CNBC in June 2007.[94] This article or section does not cite any references or sources. ... The Hubbert curve, devised by M. King Hubbert, predicts future oil availability. ...


In October 2007, with oil prices in the United States over $90 per barrel, the Energy Watch Group, a German research group founded by MP Hans-Josef Fell, released a report claiming that oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline by several percent annually. The authors predict negative economic effects and social unrest as a result.[95][96] Hans-Josef Fell is a German Member of Parliament who framed the German Renewable Energy Sources Law. ...


Peak oil for individual nations

Further information: List of oil fields

Peak Oil as a concept applies globally, but it is based on the summation of individual nations experiencing peak oil. In State of the World 2005, Worldwatch Institute observes that oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries.[97] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks. This list of oil fields includes major fields of the past and present. ... The Worldwatch Institute is an environmental research organisation in the United States. ... An oil well in Canada. ...


The following list shows significant oil-producing nations and their approximate peak oil production years.[98]

  • Australia (disputed): 2004; 2001
  • Egypt: 1987[99]
  • France: 1988
  • Germany: 1966
  • Iran: 1974
  • India: 1997
  • Indonesia: 1991[100]
  • Japan: 1932 (assumed; source does not specify)
  • Libya: 1970
  • Mexico: 2003
  • New Zealand: 1997[101]
  • Nigeria: 1979
  • Norway: 2000[102]
  • Oman: 2000[103]
  • Russia: 1987
  • Syria: 1996 [104]
  • Tobago: 1981[105]
  • Venezuela: 1970
  • UK: 1999
  • USA: 1970[106]

Peak oil production has not been reached in the following nations (these numbers are estimates and subject to revision):[107]

  • Iraq: 2018
  • Kuwait: 2013
  • Saudi Arabia: 2014

In addition, the most recent International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration production data show record and rising production in Canada and China. The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ... The Energy Information Administration (EIA), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, collects and disseminates data on energy reserves, production, consumption, distribution, prices, technology, and related international, economic, and financial matters. ...


Resource nationalism

Kate Dorian of Platts has noted that "some oil-rich countries are restricting oil sales outside of their country. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves."[92] According to consulting firm PFC Energy, only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow companies like ExxonMobil free rein. Fully 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, with the rest in countries such as Russia and Venezuela, where access by Western companies is difficult. The PFC study implies political factors are limiting capacity increases in Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Russia. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion, but because of a self-imposed cap, unlike the other countries.[108] As a result of not having access to countries amenable to oil exploration, ExxonMobil is not making nearly the investment in finding new oil that it did in 1981.[109] Platts is a major provider of energy information around the world that has been in business for more than a century and is now a division of McGraw-Hill. ...


Mexico nationalized its oil industry in 1938, and has never privatized, restricting foreign investment. Since the giant Cantarell field in Mexico is now in decline, the state oil company Pemex has faced intense political opposition to opening up the country's oil and gas sector to foreign participation. Some feel that the state oil company Pemex does not have the capacity to develop deep water assets by itself, but needs to do so if it is to stem the decline in the country's crude production.[110] This article does not adequately cite its references or sources. ... A Pemex gas station in Puerto Vallarta Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) is Mexicos state-owned, nationalized petroleum company. ...


Major oil companies operating in Venezuela have had difficulty with the spreading resource nationalism. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhilips have said they would walk away from their large investment in the Orinoco heavy-oil belt rather than accept tough new contract terms which raise taxes and oblige all foreign companies to accept minority shares in joint ventures with the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).[111] “Taxes” redirects here. ... { { Infobox_Company|company_name = Devenezuela S.A Petr�leos. ...


Iran, now among the world's leading crude-oil exporters, could become a net importer of oil within the next decade due to rising demand and slow-growing production.[112] Possessing the world's second-biggest proven reserves of oil, it infuriated its people when the government brought in petrol rationing on two hours notice.[113] Due to limited refinery capacity, it has discouraged gasoline usage. Shortly after the petrol/gasoline rationing, which has reduced demand in some areas by 20%-30%, it announced it will not be producing cars powered only by gasoline.[114]


In Russia, Vladimir Putin's government has pressured Royal Dutch Shell to hand over control of one major project on Sakhalin Island, to Russia's Gazprom in December. The founder of formerly-private Yukos has also been jailed, and the company absorbed by state-owned Rosneft.[115] Such moves strain the confidence of international oil companies in forming partnerships with Russia.[112] Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (Russian: ) (born October 7, 1952) is the current President of the Russian Federation. ... Sakhalin (Russian: , IPA: ; Japanese: 樺太 ) or サハリン )); Chinese: 庫頁; also Saghalien, is a large elongated island in the North Pacific, lying between 45°50 and 54°24 N. It is part of Russia and is its largest island, administered as part of Sakhalin Oblast. ... Gazprom (LSE: OGZD; Russian: , sometimes transcribed as Gasprom) is the largest Russian company and the biggest extractor of natural gas in the world. ... Yukos Oil Company (ОАО НК ЮКОС) is a petroleum company in Russia which, until recently, was controlled by Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky and a number of prominent Russian businessmen. ... Image:Igor Sechin. ...


Oil price

Gas coupon printed but not used in 1973 oil crisis
Gas coupon printed but not used in 1973 oil crisis

In 2004, 30 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while eight billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered in new accumulations, a number which excludes reserve growth in existing fields. In August 2005, the International Energy Agency reported global demand at 84.9 million barrels per day, resulting in an annual demand of over 31 billion barrels.[116] This means consumption is now within 2 Mbbl/d of production. At any one time there are about 54 days of stock in the OECD system plus 37 days in emergency stockpiles. In June 2005, OPEC admitted that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year.[117] The summer and winter of 2005 brought oil prices to a new high (not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, some analysts attribute much of this new high to disruptions caused by the war in Iraq.[118] Crude oil price in 2004-2006 Average US retail price of regular unleaded gasoline Oil prices from 1861-2006 in dollars of the day and 2006 dollars. ... Image File history File links Gasoline ration coupons were printed for emergency use (but never issued) during the energy crisis in 1979. ... Image File history File links Gasoline ration coupons were printed for emergency use (but never issued) during the energy crisis in 1979. ... The 1973 oil crisis began in earnest on October 17, 1973, when the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced, as a result of the ongoing Yom Kippur War, that they would no longer ship petroleum... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ... The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organization of those developed countries that accept the principles of representative democracy and a free market economy. ... There have been three conflicts in the late 20th century and early 21st century called Gulf War, all of which refer to conflicts in the Persian Gulf region: Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) (aka First Gulf War). ...


A combination of factors such as fear of war with Iran and hurricanes caused oil prices to peak again at $78.64 on August 7, 2006, followed by falls away from the peak. On September 13, 2007, oil prices hit a new high of $80.18 and finished the day at $80.08, closing above $80 for the first time since trading on the exchange began, on the back of lower reserve data in the US, generally tight supplies, unrest in Nigeria and Mexico, growing tension with Iran, and a falling US dollar. Production is at or near full capacity.[119] Federal courts Supreme Court Circuit Courts of Appeal District Courts Elections Presidential elections Midterm elections Political Parties Democratic Republican Third parties State & Local government Governors Legislatures (List) State Courts Local Government Other countries Atlas  US Government Portal      Political relations between Iran (Persia) and the United States began when the Shah... This article is about weather phenomena. ... is the 219th day of the year (220th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... is the 256th day of the year (257th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era in the 21st century. ...


Oil futures briefly traded over $98.00 per barrel[120] on November 7, 2007. A variety of reasons were given for this new record high oil futures, including a possible incursion by Turkey into Northern Iraq, which could result in oil pipelines in that region being attacked. Another possible explanation is that oil demand is reaching parity with oil supply, and the markets are bidding up the oil futures contracts to higher levels. is the 311th day of the year (312th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era in the 21st century. ...


An oil price chart can be seen here.


US economy versus US government

Part of the current debate revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing energy conservation, fuel efficiency, or other energy sources like solar, wind, and nuclear power. At congressional peak oil hearings, Rep. Tom Udall argued that while rising oil prices would encourage alternatives (both on the supply and demand side), the costs and impacts of other issues involved with petroleum based personal transportation (such as pollution, the economic effects of global warming, security threats caused by sending vast amounts of money to the Middle East, and the costs of road maintenance) should also be taken into account. "Because the price of oil is artificially low, significant private investment in alternative technologies that provide a long-term payback does not exist. Until oil and its alternatives compete in a fair market, new technologies will not thrive."[121] For the physical concepts, see conservation of energy and energy efficiency. ... Fuel efficiency, in its basic sense, is the same as thermal efficiency, meaning the efficiency of a process that converts energy contained in a carrier fuel into energy or work. ... Solar power describes a number of methods of harnessing energy from the light of the sun. ... An example of a wind turbine. ... This article is about applications of nuclear fission reactors as power sources. ... Thomas Stewart Tom Udall (born May 18, 1948) is an American politician who has represented New Mexicos third Congressional district (map) as a member of the United States House of Representatives since 1999. ...


The Congressional Budget Office suggests that, "the federal government could more effectively increase the efficiency of the nation's automotive fleet by raising gasoline taxes, imposing user fees on the purchase of low-mileage-per-gallon vehicles, or both." This would give automakers more incentive to research alternative fuel technology and increased efficiency (through lighter vehicles, better aerodynamics, and less wasted energy).[122] The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. ... Fuel economy in automobiles is the amount of fuel required to move the automobile over a given distance. ...


Hans-Holger Rogner, a section head at the IAEA, warned in 1997 that the level of incentive required for market driven research and development will actually rise. Because production costs are not expected to decrease and because of the continued emphasis companies give to short-term profits, "a regional breakdown for 11 world regions indicates that neither hydrocarbon resource availability nor costs are likely to become forces that automatically would help wean the global energy system from the use of fossil fuel during the next century."[123] IAEA The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), established as an autonomous organization on July 29, 1957, seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for military purposes. ...


The problems of privately funded research and development are not unique to peak oil mitigation. Bronwyn H. Hall, graduate economics professor at the Haas School of Business, points out that, "even if problems associated with incomplete appropriability of the returns to R&D are solved using intellectual property protection, subsidies, or tax incentives, it may still be difficult or costly to finance R&D using capital from sources external to the firm or entrepreneur. That is, there is often a wedge, sometimes large, between the rate of return required by an entrepreneur investing his own funds and that required by external investors." [124] The severity of the problem for energy is echoed in the International Energy Agency's latest report[125] Eastern entrance The Walter A. Haas School of Business, better known as the Haas School of Business or simply Haas, is one of 14 schools and colleges at the University of California, Berkeley. ... The phrase research and development (also R and D or R&D) has a special commercial significance apart from its conventional coupling of research and technological development. ... For the 2006 film, see Intellectual Property (film). ... A subsidy is generally a monetary grant given by government in support of an activity regarded as being in the public interest. ... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ...


In the US, transportation by car is guided more by the government than by an invisible hand. Roads and the interstate highway system were built by local, state and federal governments and paid for by income taxes, property taxes, fuel taxes, and tolls. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is designed to offset market imbalances. Municipal parking is frequently subsidized.[126] Emission standards regulate pollution by cars. US fuel economy standards exist but are not high enough to have effect. There is also a gas guzzler tax of limited scope. The United States offers tax credits for certain vehicles and these frequently are hybrids or compressed natural gas cars (see Energy Policy Act of 2005). For other uses, see Invisible hand (disambiguation). ... Interstate Highways in the 48 contiguous states. ... Tax rates around the world Tax revenue as % of GDP Economic policy Monetary policy Central bank   Money supply Fiscal policy Spending   Deficit   Debt Trade policy Tariff   Trade agreement Finance Financial market Financial market participants Corporate   Personal Public   Banking   Regulation        An income tax is a tax levied on the financial income... Property tax, millage tax is an ad valorem tax that an owner of real estate or other property pays on the value of the property being taxed. ... Tax rates around the world Tax revenue as % of GDP Economic policy Monetary policy Central bank   Money supply Fiscal policy Spending   Deficit   Debt Trade policy Tariff   Trade agreement Finance Financial market Financial market participants Corporate   Personal Public   Banking   Regulation        A fuel tax (also known as a petrol tax, gasoline tax... The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is an emergency petroleum store maintained by the United States Department of Energy. ... For other uses, see Parking (disambiguation). ... Emission standards are requirements that set specific limits to the amount of pollutants that can be released into the environment. ... Air pollution Pollution is the introduction of pollutants (whether chemical substances, or energy such as noise, heat, or light) into the environment to such a point that its effects become harmful to human health, other living organisms, or the environment. ... Fuel efficiency, sometimes also referred to as fuel economy and commonly gas mileage in the United States, is a numeric measure often used to describe the amount of fuel consumed with regard to the distance travelled in a transportation vehicle, such as an automobile. ... Fuel economy in automobiles is the amount of fuel required to move the automobile over a given distance. ... For other types of Hybrid Transportation, see Hybrid (disambiguation)#Transportation. ... Typical North America vehicles carry this diamond shape symbol, meaning it is running on compressed natural gas fuel. ... The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Pub. ...


In order to be profitable, many alternatives to oil require the price of oil to remain above some level. Investors in these alternatives must gamble with the limited data on oil reserves available. This imperfect information can lead to a market failure caused by a move by nature. One explanation for this is Hotelling's rule for non-renewable resources. Even with perfect information the price of oil correlates with spare capacity and spare capacity does not warn of a peak. For example, in the early 1960's (10 years before oil production peaked in the United States), there was enough spare capacity in US production that Hubbert's predicted peak of 1966-1971 was "at the very least completely unrealistic to most people," preventing the necessary steps being taken to mitigate the situation. The absence of accurate information about spare production capacity exacerbates the current situation.[127] Market failure is a term used by economists to describe the condition where the allocation of goods and services by a market is not efficient. ... In Game theory a move by nature (aka Gods move or nature move) is a decision or move in an extensive form game made by a player who has no strategic interests in the outcome. ... Hotellings rule is defining the net price path as a function of time while maximising rent in the time of fully extracting a non-renewable natural resource. ... Wyoming coal mine. ... Perfect information is a term used in economics and game theory to describe a state of complete knowledge about the actions of other players that is instantaneously updated as new information arises. ... The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ...


Lester Brown believes this problem might be solved by the government establishing a price floor for oil. A tax shift raising gas taxes is the same idea.[128] Opponents of such a price floor argue that the markets would distrust the government's ability to keep the policy when oil prices are low.[129] Lester R. Brown is an environmental analyst who has written several books on global environmental issues. ... A Price floor is a government-imposed limit on how low a price can be charged for a product. ... Tax shift or Tax swap is a change in taxation that eliminates or reduces one or several taxes and establishes or increases others while keeping the overall revenue the same. ...


Alternative views

Image File history File links Merge-arrows. ... For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ...

Non-dramatic peak oil

Not all non-'peakists' believe there will be endless abundance of oil. CERA, for example, instead believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.[130] In 2005 the group had predicted that "petroleum supplies will be expanding faster than demand over the next five years."[131] Cambridge Energy Research Associates, also known as CERA, is a think tank that explores issues relating to all aspects of energy, including electric power, natural gas, and oil. ...


Dr. R.C. Vierbuchen, Vice President, Caspian/Middle East Region, ExxonMobil Exploration Co. believes[132] For other uses, see Exon (disambiguation). ...

"A peak in petroleum liquids production, resulting solely from resource limitations, is unlikely in the next 25 years. Predictions of an imminent peak [based on the methodology developed by Shell Oil Co. geologist M. King Hubbert] in 1956 do not adequately account for resource growth from application of new technology, knowledge and capability, which combine to increase recovery, open new producing areas and lower economic thresholds."
"Supplies from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, gas-related liquids and unconventional resources are growing. Furthermore, nations with the largest remaining resources produce under long-term restraints not envisioned in Hubbert’s method. The ultimate peak in petroleum production may result from factors other than resource limitations."

Similarly, some analysts believe that the rising oil prices will instigate a move toward alternative sources of fuel, and that this will take effect long before oil reserves are depleted. Some have argued that while OPEC ensures through its regulations that oil prices do not fall too low, it also shows concern that overly inflated prices will cause many countries to move toward alternative energy sources, for economic as well as political reasons. In 1990 Saudi Arabia in particular flooded the market to prevent prices from going to high. The recent rise in oil prices to nearly $100 per barrel in November of 2007 brings the price well above where analysts have speculated that this process could take place, although it is expected that this would happen over an extended period of time.[133][134]


Energy Information Administration and USGS 2000 reports

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects world consumption of oil to increase to 98.3 million barrels a day in 2015 and 118 million barrels a day in 2030.[135] This represents more than a 25% increase in world oil production. A 2004 paper by the Energy Information Administration based on data collected in 2000 disagrees with Hubbert peak theory on several points:[136]

  • Explicitly incorporates demand into model as well as supply
  • Does not assume pre/post-peak symmetry of production levels
  • Models pre- and post-peak production with different functions (exponential growth and constant reserves-to-production ratio, respectively)
  • Assumes reserve growth, including via technological advancement and exploitation of small reservoirs

The EIA estimates of future oil supply are countered by Sadad Al Husseini, retired VP Exploration of Aramco, who calls it a 'dangerous over-estimate'.[137] Husseini also points out that population growth and the emergence of China and India means oil prices are now going to be structurally higher than they have been.


Campbell argues that the 2000 USGS estimates is methodologically flawed study that has done incalculable damage by misleading international agencies and governments.[138] Campbell dismisses the notion that the world can seamlessly move to more difficult and expensive sources of oil and gas when the need arises. He argues that oil is in profitable abundance or not there at all, due ultimately to the fact that it is a liquid concentrated by nature in a few places having the right geology. Campbell believes OPEC countries raised their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. He also points out that the USGS failed to extrapolate past discovery trends in the world’s mature basins. This article includes a list of works cited but its sources remain unclear because it lacks in-text citations. ... Not to be confused with APEC. OPEC Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international cartel[1][2] made up of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Ecuador (which rejoined OPRC in November 2007) . The...


No Peak Oil

Some commentors, such as economists Michael Lynch and Michael Moffat, believe that the Hubbert Peak theory is flawed and there is no imminent peak in oil production; such views are sometimes referred to as "cornucopian" by believers in Hubbert Peak Theory. Lynch argues that production is determined by demand as well as geology, and that fluctuations in oil supply are due to political and economic effects in addition to the physical processes of exploration, discovery and production.[139] Moffat contends that as prices increase, consumers will find alternatives to gasoline. Changes in consumer patterns and the emergence of new technology driven by increases in the price of oil will prevent the oil supply from ever physically running out.[140] A cornucopian is someone who posits that there are few intractable natural limits to growth, and believes the planet can provide a practically limitless abundance of natural resources. ...


Abdullah S. Jum'ah President, Director and CEO of Aramco feels that world has adequate reserves of conventional and non conventional oil sources for more than a century.[141][142]. Abdullah S. Jumah is the current President, Director, and CEO of Saudi Aramco, the worlds largest oil company. ... Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabian Oil Company) is one of the largest oil companies in the world, and the largest in terms of production (bpd). ...


OPEC has never acknowledged imminent Peak oil concerns.[citation needed] In OPEC's 2007 annual book[143], which discusses issues such as future supply position, forecasted demand, and ultimate recoverable reserves (URR), the authors state that the conventional oil resource base is sufficient to satisfy demand increases over the projected period until 2030 at a price of $50-60 per barrel, increasing afterwards to account for inflation. It also states that, comparing the 5% confidence (P5) URR of 3300(sic) billion barrels from the 2000 USGS survey[144] to what appears to be (there is no reference given) the 95% confidence (P95) URR of 1700(sic) billion barrels from the 1980 Rand corporation, production after 1980 has been only 1/3rd of reserve additions happening during the same period, in contrast with statements from Peak oil advocates. Four other surveys from 1980 give estimates of 2600, 2400, 2280, and 2015 billion barrels.[145] Comparing the average of the five 1980 estimates (2219 billion barrels when using the actual Rand estimate of 1800 billion barrels) to P95 URR from the 2000 USGS survey (2272 billion barrels), production after 1980 has been over 10 times more than reserve additions. Not to be confused with APEC. OPEC Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international cartel[1][2] made up of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Ecuador (which rejoined OPRC in November 2007) . The...


Abiogenesis

Biogenesis remains the overwhelmingly majority theory among petroleum geologists in the United States. Abiogenic theorists, such as the late professor of astronomy Thomas Gold at Cornell University, assert that the sources of oil may not be “fossil fuels” in limited supply, but instead abiotic in nature. They theorize that if abiogenic petroleum sources are found to be abundant, it would mean Earth contains vast reserves of untapped petroleum.[146] However, M. R. Mello and J.M. Moldowan counter that biomarkers in all the samples of all the oil and gas accumulations found up to now prove conclusively that oil comes from a biologic origin and that oil is generated from kerogen by pyrolysis.[147] The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin holds that natural petroleum was formed from deep carbon deposits, perhaps dating to the formation of the Earth. ... The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin holds that natural petroleum was formed from deep carbon deposits, perhaps dating to the formation of the Earth. ... Thomas Gold (May 22, 1920 – June 22, 2004) was an Austrian astrophysicist, a professor of astronomy at Cornell University, and a member of the US National Academy of Sciences. ... Cornell redirects here. ... This article or section does not adequately cite its references or sources. ... The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin states that petroleum (or crude oil) is primarily created from non-biological sources of hydrocarbons located deep in the Earth. ... Biomarker is an occasionally used synonym for biosignature, which is a term used in astrobiology to indicate a measurable phenomenon that indicates the presence of life. ... Kerogens are chemical compounds that make up a portion of the organic matter in sedimentary rocks. ... Simple sketch of pyrolysis chemistry Pyrolysis usually means the chemical decomposition of organic materials by heating in the absence of oxygen or any other reagents, except possibly steam. ...


Historical understanding of world oil supply limits

Although the finiteness of the earth's oil supply means that peak oil is inevitable, technological innovations in finding and drillng for oil have at times changed the understanding of the total oil supply on Earth.[148]

  • In 1855, people could only access whatever oil happened to seep to the surface, and an advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil stated, "Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."
  • In 1874, the state geologist of Pennsylvania, the United States' leading oil-producing state, said that all the oil would be gone by 1878.
  • In 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey stated that the world only had 60 billion barrels of oil left.
  • In 1950, geologists estimated that the world had 600 billion barrels of oil.
  • Since the 1960s, major oil surveys have shown P95 EUR of close to 2,000 billion barrels (see below).
  • In 1970, scientists estimated that the world had 1,500 billion barrels of oil.
  • In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the world had 2,400 billion barrels of oil.
  • In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the world had 3,000 billion barrels of oil (P95 EUR of 2,300 billion barrels--see below).

The 95% confidence Estimated Ultimate Retrieval (EUR) of a little under 2,000 billion barrels has been the average finding of major oil surveys since 1965. The 2000 USGS survey assumed a discovery trend over the next 20 years which would completely and dramatically reverse the observed trend of the past 40 years. Their 95% confidence EUR of 2,300 billion barrels assumed that discovery levels would stay steady, despite discovery levels having fallen quickly and steadily since the 1960s. That trend of falling discoveries has continued in the 7 years since the USGS made their assumption.[149]


None of this means that new oil is forming, or that peak oil will never happen, but it implies that technological advances have allowed the discovery and recovery of more oil than was historically expected. As oil estimates have remained steady since the 1960s this appears to no longer be the case. Also, some later estimates are based on unaudited claims by countries that withhold field production data and are therefore inconclusive and may be inflated. expectation in the context of probability theory and statistics, see expected value. ...


See also

Energy Portal
Sustainable development Portal
  • Category:Peak oil

Prediction Image File history File links Crystal_128_energy. ... Image File history File links Sustainable_development. ...

Economics The theory of backstop resources is used by economic optimists to downplay fears about resource shortages, especially energy resources (see Peak oil). ... Strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) refer to crude oil reserves held by the government of a particular country for the purpose of providing economic and national security during an energy crisis. ... The Hirsch report is a report done for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. ... The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). ... World power usage in terawatts (TW), 1965-2005. ...

Technology Please wikify (format) this article as suggested in the Guide to layout and the Manual of Style. ... Kuznets curve is the graphical representation of Simon Kuznetss theory (Kuznets hypothesis) that economic inequality increases over time, then at a critical point begins to decrease. ... A low-carbon economy is an economy in which carbon dioxide emissions from the use of carbon based fuels (coal, oil and gas) are significantly reduced. ... Oil crisis may refer to: 1973 oil crisis 1979 energy crisis 1990 spike in the price of oil Oil price increases of 2004 and 2005 Hubbert peak theory Energy crisis This is a disambiguation page: a list of articles associated with the same title. ... Oil Storm is a 2005 television docudrama portraying a future oil-shortage crisis in the United States, precipitated by a hurricane destroying key parts of the United States oil infrastructure. ... It has been suggested that Drama Documentary be merged into this article or section. ... Oil imperialism theories characterize a broad group of political science theories which assert that direct and indirect control of world petroleum reserves is a root factor in current international politics. ... Not to be confused with APEC. OPEC Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international cartel[1][2] made up of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Ecuador (which rejoined OPRC in November 2007) . The... Crude oil prices, 2005-2007 (not adjusted for inflation) U.S. Retail Gasoline prices, 2005-2007 (not adjusted for inflation) Oil prices from 1861-2006 in dollars of the day (black) and 2006 dollars (orange). ...

Others For the physical concepts, see conservation of energy and energy efficiency. ... In physics and engineering, including mechanical and electrical engineering, energy efficiency is a dimensionless number, with a value between 0 and 1 or, when multiplied by 100, is given as a percentage. ... Higher electricity use per capita correlates with a higher score on the Human Development Index(1997). ... Fuel economy in automobiles is the amount of fuel required to move the automobile over a given distance. ... Future energy development, providing for the worlds future energy needs, currently faces great challenges. ... Renewable energy effectively utilizes natural resources such as sunlight, wind, tides and geothermal heat, which are naturally replenished. ... The soft energy path is an energy use and development strategy delineated and promoted by some energy experts and activists, such as Amory Lovins and Tom Bender; in Canada, David Suzuki has been a very prominent (if less specialized) proponent. ...

A decrepit street in Trinidad, Cuba showing signs of the economic decline in Cuba since the collapse of the Soviet Union The Special Period in Peacetime (Spanish: ) in Cuba was an extended period of economic crisis that began in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union and, by extension... CCCP redirects here. ... Crude oil prices, 1994-2007 (not adjusted for inflation) In 2005 the government of Sweden announced their intention to make Sweden the first country to break its dependence on petroleum, natural gas and other ‘fossil raw materials’ by 2020. ... Energy security, or security of supply, is a key component of energy policy in many countries. ... Limits to Growth was a 1972 book modeling the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies, commissioned by the Club of Rome. ... Map of countries by population density (See List of countries by population density. ... The Green Revolution was the worldwide transformation of agriculture that led to significant increases in agricultural production between the 1940s and 1960s. ... For other uses, see Disaster (disambiguation). ...

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  97. ^ WorldWatch Institute (2005-01-01). State of the World 2005: Redefining Global Security (in English). New York: Norton, 107. ISBN ISBN 0-393-32666-7. 
  98. ^ Unless otherwise specified, source is ABC TV's Four Corners.
  99. ^ http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=eg&product=oil&graph=production+consumption
  100. ^ http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=id&product=oil&graph=production+consumption
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  104. ^ http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=sy&product=oil&graph=production+consumption
  105. ^ http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=tt&product=oil&graph=production
  106. ^ http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/stb0501.xls
  107. ^ http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
  108. ^ Sheila McNulty. "Politics of oil seen as threat to supplies", Financial Times, 2007-05-09. (English) 
  109. ^ Justin Fox. "No More Gushers for ExxonMobil", Time magazine, 2007-05-31. (English) 
  110. ^ Ross McCracken. "IOCs, NOCs Facing Off Over Scarcer Resources", Platts, 2007. (English) 
  111. ^ "It's our oil", The Economist, 2007-06-28. (English) 
  112. ^ a b Mark Trumbull. "Risks of rising oil nationalism", Christian Science Monitor, 2007-04-03. (English) 
  113. ^ Mark Colvin and Sabra Lane. "Iran's oil restrictions 'a warning for Australia'", Energy Bulletin, 2007-06-28. (English) 
  114. ^ "Iran ends petrol-only car making", BBC, 2007-06-07. (English) 
  115. ^ "Country Profile: Russia", BBC, 2007-09-17. (English) 
  116. ^ Oil Market Report - Demand (English). International Energy Agency (2006-07-12).
  117. ^ "Oil prices rally despite OPEC output hike", MSNBC, 2005-06-15. (English) 
  118. ^ Richard M. Ebeling (2003-03-05). Why War with Iraq? Follow the Money (English). The Future of Freedom Foundation.
  119. ^ Global oil prices jump to 11-month highs (English). Petroleum World (07 09 07).
  120. ^ Oil passes $98 on weaker dollar (English). bbc (07 11 07).
  121. ^ Peak Oil Hearing: Udall Testimony (English). United States House of Representatives (2005-12-07).
  122. ^ Energy (English). Congressional Budget Office (2005-02).
  123. ^ Hans-Holger Rogner (November 1997). "An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources" (in English) (PDF). Annu. Rev. Energy Environ 22: pp. 217-262. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.22.1.217. 
  124. ^ (2002) "The Financing of Research and Development" (in English) (PDF). Oxford Rev. Econ. Pol. 18 (1). “NBER Working Paper No. 8773 (February 2002); University of California at Berkeley Dept. of Economics Working Paper No. E02-311 (January 2002)” 
  125. ^ WEO 2006 identifies under-investment in new energy supply as a real risk (English). International Energy Agency (2006-11-07).
  126. ^ Keith Bawolek (2004-03). "What Drives Parking Investments?" (in English). CIRE Magazine. 
  127. ^ Alfred J. Cavallo (December 2004). "Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts" (in English). Natural Resources Research 13 (4). 
  128. ^ Lester R. Brown (2006-05-11). Let's Raise Gas Taxes and Lower Income Taxes (English). Earth Policy Institute.
  129. ^ Jerry Taylor and Peter Van Doren (2006-06-01). An Argument against Oil Price Minimums (English). Cato Institute.
  130. ^ "CERA says peak oil theory is faulty", Energy Bulletin, 2006-11-14. (English) 
  131. ^ "One energy forecast: Oil supplies grow", Christian Science Monitor, 2005-06-22. (English) 
  132. ^ R.C. Vierbuchen (2007-02-28). Production of global hydrocarbon liquids: Is there a near term peak? (English). Houston Geological Society.
  133. ^ http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html?pagewanted=7
  134. ^ http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C18%5Cstory_18-11-2007_pg5_18
  135. ^ World Oil Consumption by region, Reference Case (English). EIA (2006).
  136. ^ John H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse (2004-08-18). Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios - The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert (English). EIA.
  137. ^ "Oil expert: US overestimates future oil supplies", Channel 4 News. (English) 
  138. ^ "Campbell replies to USGS: Global Petroleum Reserves - A View to the Future", Oil Crisis, 2002-12-1. (English) 
  139. ^ Michael C. Lynch. The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) (English). Energyseer.com.
  140. ^ Michael Moffatt. We Will Never Run Out of Oil (English). About.com.
  141. ^ http://www.ogj.com/display_article/312081/7/ONART/none/GenIn/1/WEC:-Saudi-Aramco-chief-dismisses-peak-oil-fears/ Aramco chief says world's Oil reserves will last for more than a century.
  142. ^ http://www.worldenergysource.com/articles/text/jumah_WE_v8n1.cfm
  143. ^ http://www.opec.org/library/World%20Oil%20Outlook/pdf/WorldOilOutlook.pdf Oil outlook for the year 2007 by OPEC
  144. ^ http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/chaps/ES.pdf
  145. ^ http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2007/07032horn/images/horn.pdf
  146. ^ J. R. Nyquist (2006-05-08). Debunking Peak Oil (English). Financial Sense.
  147. ^ M. R. Mello and J.M. Moldowan (2005). Petroleum: To Be Or Not To Be Abiogenic (English).
  148. ^ Deming, David (2003-01-29). Are We Running Out of Oil?. National Center for Policy Analysis. Retrieved on 2007-11-01.
  149. ^ Dr. Werner Zittel, Jorg Schindler (2007-10). Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook (English). Energy Watch Group.

The Toronto Star is Canadas highest-circulation newspaper, though its print edition is distributed almost entirely within Ontario. ... Bloomberg L.P. is a Financial Media Company founded by Michael Bloomberg in 1982. ... The International Herald Tribune is a widely read English language international newspaper. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era in the 21st century. ... is the 322nd day of the year (323rd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... The Times is a national newspaper published daily in the United Kingdom (and the Kingdom of Great Britain before the United Kingdom existed) since 1788 when it was known as The Daily Universal Register. ... is the 283rd day of the year (284th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2004 (MMIV) was a leap year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar. ... is the 55th day of the year in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2004 (MMIV) was a leap year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar. ... National Review (NR) is a biweekly magazine of political opinion, founded by author William F. Buckley, Jr. ... is the 338th day of the year (339th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2003 (MMIII) was a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar. ... Population & Environment is a scientific journal that publishes scientific articles and reviews related to the bi-directional links between population, natural resources, and the natural environment. ... A digital object identifier (or DOI) is a standard for persistently identifying a piece of intellectual property on a digital network and associating it with related data, the metadata, in a structured extensible way. ... ISSN, or International Standard Serial Number, is the unique eight-digit number applied to a periodical publication including electronic serials. ... is the 322nd day of the year (323rd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... The Financial Times (FT) is a British international business newspaper. ... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ... El Universal is a major Mexican newspaper. ... Bloomberg L.P. is a Financial Media Company founded by Michael Bloomberg in 1982. ... Chevron may refer to: Chevron, a V-shaped pattern seen in military or police insigna, heraldry, flag design, and architectural frets Chevron, a series of bones on the underside of the tail of reptiles Chevron Corporation, a petrochemical company Chevron Cars, an advertising campaign of the Chevron Corporation including stylized... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... The Boston Globe (and Boston Sunday Globe) is the most widely circulated daily newspaper in Boston, Massachusetts and New England. ... The Energy Information Administration (EIA), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, collects and disseminates data on energy reserves, production, consumption, distribution, prices, technology, and related international, economic, and financial matters. ... The Energy Information Administration (EIA), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, collects and disseminates data on energy reserves, production, consumption, distribution, prices, technology, and related international, economic, and financial matters. ... The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), as part of the United States Department of Transportation, compiles, analyzes, and makes accessible information on the nations transportation systems; collects information on intermodal transportation and other areas as needed; and enhances the quality and effectiveness of DOTs statistical programs through research... The Hirsch report is a report done for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. ... BBC News is the department within the BBC responsible for the corporations news-gathering and production of news programmes on BBC television, radio and online. ... Physics Today magazine, created in 1948, is the flagship publication of The American Institute of Physics. ... BusinessWeek is a business magazine published by McGraw-Hill. ... The Wall Street Journal is an influential international daily newspaper published in New York City, New York with an average daily circulation of 1,800,607 (2002). ... The National Geographic Society was founded in the USA on January 27, 1888, by 33 men interested in organizing a society for the increase and diffusion of geographical knowledge. ... EPA redirects here. ... The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a scientific agency of the United States government. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... IEA can stand for several different things, such as those listed here: Idaho Education Association Illinois Education Association Illuminating Engineering Society Industrial Environmental Association Information Exchange Agreements Information Exchange Annex Institute for Economic Analysis Institute of Economic Affairs Instituto de Economia Agrícola Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía... National Review (NR) is a biweekly magazine of political opinion, founded by author William F. Buckley, Jr. ... is the 338th day of the year (339th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2003 (MMIII) was a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar. ... The Huffington Post is a group weblog and news site started by Arianna Huffington on May 9, 2005. ... For other uses, see Guardian. ... W. W. Norton & Company is an American book publishing company that has remained independent since its founding. ... The Financial Times (FT) is a British international business newspaper. ... “TIME” redirects here. ... Platts is a major provider of energy information around the world that has been in business for more than a century and is now a division of McGraw-Hill. ... The Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd and edited in London. ... The Christian Science Monitor (CSM) is an international newspaper published daily, Monday through Friday. ... For other uses, see BBC (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see BBC (disambiguation). ... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ... For the news website, see msnbc. ... The Future of Freedom Foundation (FFF) is a nonprofit libertarian educational foundation based in Fairfax, Virginia. ... For other uses, see BBC (disambiguation). ... A digital object identifier (or DOI) is a standard for persistently identifying a piece of intellectual property on a digital network and associating it with related data, the metadata, in a structured extensible way. ... Oxford Review of Economic Policy is a refereed journal which is published quarterly. ... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ... Earth Policy Institute is an environmental organization based in Washington DC in the United States. ... The Cato Institute is a libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Institutes stated mission is to broaden the parameters of public policy debate to allow consideration of the traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, free markets, and peace by striving to achieve greater involvement... The Christian Science Monitor (CSM) is an international newspaper published daily, Monday through Friday. ... The Electronic Industries Alliance (EIA, until 1997 Electronic Industries Association) is a trade organization for electronics manufacturers in the United States. ... The Electronic Industries Alliance (EIA, until 1997 Electronic Industries Association) is a trade organization for electronics manufacturers in the United States. ... Oil crisis may refer to: 1973 oil crisis 1979 energy crisis 1990 spike in the price of oil Oil price increases of 2004 and 2005 Hubbert peak theory Energy crisis This is a disambiguation page: a list of articles associated with the same title. ... The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank that develops and promotes private alternatives to government regulation and control, solving problems by relying on the strength of the competitive, entrepreneurial private sector. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era in the 21st century. ... is the 305th day of the year (306th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...

Further reading

Books

  • Colin J. Campbell,
    • Campbell, Colin J. (2004). The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-19-6. 
    • Campbell, Colin J. (2004). The Coming Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-11-0. 
    • Campbell, Colin J. (2005). Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-39-0. 
  • Kenneth S. Deffeyes,
    • Deffeyes, Kenneth S. (2002). Hubbert's Peak:The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-09086-6. 
    • Deffeyes, Kenneth S. (2005). Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak. Hill and Wang. ISBN 0-8090-2956-1. 
  • Eberhart, Mark (2007). Feeding the Fire: The Lost History and Uncertain Future of Mankind's Energy Addiction. Harmony. ISBN 978-0307237446. 
  • Goodstein, David (2005). Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil. W. W. Norton. ISBN 0-393-05857-3. 
  • Richard Heinberg,
    • Heinberg, Richard (2003). The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-482-7. 
    • Heinberg, Richard (2004). Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-510-6. 
    • Heinberg, Richard (2006). The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse. New Society Publishers. ISBN 10: 0-86571-563-7. 
  • Huber, Peter (2005). The Bottomless Well. Basic Books. ISBN 0-465-03116-1. 
  • Kleveman, Lutz C. (2004). The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 0-87113-906-5. 
  • Kunstler, James H. (2005). The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 0-87113-888-3. 
  • Leggett, Jeremy (2005). The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe. Random House. ISBN 1-4000-6527-5. 
  • Leggett, Jeremy (2005). Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis. Portobello Books Ltd. ISBN 1-8462-7004-9. 
  • Lovins, Amory et al (2005). Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profit, Jobs and Security. Rocky Mountain Institute. ISBN 1-881071-10-3. 
  • Pfeiffer, Dale Allen (2004). The End of the Oil Age. Lulu Press. ISBN 1-4116-0629-9. 
  • Rashid, Ahmed,
    • Rashid, Ahmed (2001). Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-08902-3. 
    • Rashid, Ahmed (2003). Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia. Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-09345-4. 
  • Rifkin, Jeremy (2002). The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web. Blackwell Publishers. ISBN 0-7456-3042-1. 
  • Ruppert, Michael C. (2005). Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil. New Society. ISBN-13: 978-0865715400. 
  • Simmons, Matthew R. (2005). Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. ISBN 0-471-73876-X. 
  • Shah, Sonia (2004). Crude, The Story of Oil. Seven Stories Press. ISBN 1-58322-625-7. 
  • Simon, Julian L. (1998). The Ultimate Resource. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-00381-5. 
  • Smil, Vaclav (2005). Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-19492-9. 
  • Tertzakian, Peter (2006). A Thousand Barrels a Second. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-146874-9. 
  • Yeomans, Matthew (2004). Oil, Anatomy of an Industry. ISBN 1-56584-885-3. 
  • Yergin, Daniel (1993). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power. Free Press. ISBN 0-671-79932-0. 

Colin Campbell. ... Colin Campbell. ... Colin Campbell. ... Colin Campbell. ... Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert of Hubberts peak fame, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. ... Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert of Hubberts peak fame, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. ... Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert of Hubberts peak fame, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. ... David L. Goodstein (born 1939) is a U.S. physicist and educator. ... Richard Heinberg (born 1951) is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on ecological issues, including Peak Oil. ... Richard Heinberg (born 1951) is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on ecological issues, including Peak Oil. ... Richard Heinberg (born 1951) is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on ecological issues, including Peak Oil. ... Richard Heinberg (born 1951) is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on ecological issues, including Peak Oil. ... James Howard Kunstler (born 1948) is an American author, social critic, and blogger who is perhaps best known for his book The Geography of Nowhere, a history of suburbia and urban development in the United States. ... The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century is a book by James Howard Kunstler exploring the consequnces of a world oil production peak, coinciding with the forces of climate change, resurgent diseases, water scarcity, global economic instability and warfare to cause chaos for future generations. ... Amory Lovins Amory Bloch Lovins (born November 13, 1947 in Washington, DC) was trained in physics and has worked professionally as an environmentalist. ... Ahmed Rashid (b. ... Ahmed Rashid (b. ... Ahmed Rashid (b. ... Jeremy Rifkin. ... Michael Ruppert. ... Matthew R. Simmons is the chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International and a frequently-cited individual in matters relating to Peak Oil. ... This article is about the economist Julian Simon. ... MIT Press Books The MIT Press is a university publisher affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, Massachusetts. ... Peter Tertzakian is an energy expert and author of A Thousand Barrels a Second. ... Daniel H. Yergin (born February 6, 1947) is an American author and economic researcher. ...

External links

Web sites

  • Articles and commentary from Peak Oil correspondent Byron King
  • Association for the Study of Peak Oil
  • DIE OFF - a population crash resource page
  • Carbon War
  • Culture Change - life after the peak.
  • Eating Fossil Fuels
  • Energy Bulletin Peak Oil related articles
  • From The Wilderness original peak oil reporting
  • Energy Supply page at The Global Education Project Charts and graphs on current energy reserves and use, and peak oil.
  • Global Oil Watch - Extensive Peak Oil Library
  • Life After the Oil Crash Deal With Reality or Reality Will Deal With You
  • Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in the United Kingdom
  • The Oil Drum Discussions about Energy and our Future
  • Oil Protocol A plan for a sensible energy future]
  • PeakOil.com
  • Peak Oil Chat Real time, instant message style discussion on energy related issues. No registration or software installation at all.
  • Peak Oil For Dummies
  • Peak Oil in the News Daily round-up of Peak Oil news
  • Post Carbon Institute to assist communities in the effort to Relocalize and adapt to an energy constrained world.
  • PowerSwitch in the United Kingdom
  • Solutions for food, housing and transportation
  • TrendLines' current Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Graph A monthly compilation update of 16 recognized estimates of URR, Peak Year & Peak Rate
  • U.S. Energy Information Agency Petroleum Data
  • Wolf at the Door Beginner's Guide to Peak Oil

Online audio, podcasts

  • David Holmgren (2004-07-28). David Holmgren talks about Peak Oil and Permaculture. archive.org.

Online videos

  • Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's to U.S. House of Representatives (English). Energy Bulletin (2005-04-05).
  • OneWorldTV Video interview with Richard Heinberg
  • Informative and brief (12 minute) Australian video about the problem
  • Peak Oil: brief overview slide show by Powerswitch.org.uk
  • Peak Oil? ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Includes interviews with Colin Campbell, Robert Hirsch, Chris Skrebowski, and others.
  • Arithmetic, Population and Energy. Dr. Albert Bartlett (Both video and MP3 available. A transcript is also available)
  • A post-oil man. A humorous look at preparing for peak oil.
  • Roscoe Bartlett explains peak oil in US Congress
  • Peak Aware: free online videos about peak oil

DVDs

  • What a Way to Go: Life at the End of an Empire (2007)
  • Oil Crash (2006)
  • Oil, Smoke & Mirrors (2006)
  • Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature (2005)
  • The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream (2004)
  • The Power of Community: How Cuba survived the Peak Oil

Articles

  • Katie Benner. "Lawmakers: Will we run out of oil?", CNN, 2005-12-07. (English) 
  • Katie Benner. "Oil: Is the end at hand?", CNN, 2004-11-03. (English) 
  • John V. Mitchell (2006-08). A New Era for Oil Prices (English).
  • The Future of Oil (English). Foreign Policy.
  • Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère. The End of Cheap Oil (English). Scientific American.
  • press release (English). International Energy Agency.
  • Mark Williams. The End of Oil? (English). MIT Technology Review.
  • Tim Appenzeller. The End of Cheap Oil (English). National Geographic.
  • Michael C. Lynch. The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources (English).
  • Robert Rapier. Peak Lite (English).
  • Robert E. Snyder. Oil shale back in the picture (English).
  • Paul Roberts (2004-08). "Last Stop Gas" (in English). Harper's Magazine: pp. 71-72. 
  • Larry West. Sweden aims to be world's first oil-free nation by 2020 (English).
  • 'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate (English). BBC News.
  • Dan Welch. Between Peak Oil and Climate Change (English). The Peakist.
  • Donna Mosher. Actions everyone can take to prepare for the possible end of an era (English). Citizens League for Environmental Action Now.
  • Peak Oil & Aviation (English).
  • Anonymous (2005-02-20). A letter from oil exploration insider (English). Energy Bulletin.

Reports, essays, and lectures

  • Crude Oil - The Supply Outlook (English). Energy Watch Group (2007-10-22).
  • Doctoral thesis: Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production (English). Uppsala University (2007-03-30).
  • Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future (English). The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet) (2005-06-09).
  • Jim Bliss (2005-07-05). An Introduction to Peak Oil (English).
  • The End of Oil (PDF) (English). University of Otago Department of Physics (2005-07).
  • Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate (English). CERA (2006-11-14).
  • Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels (English). Parliament of Australia - Senate (2007-02-07).

  Results from FactBites:
 
Hubbert's Peak, Current Events (723 words)
Damage to oil supply facilities can be done cheaply, compared to the impact of the damage.
If high international oil "prices are insane," then oil producing countries would reserve their own production for domestic use.
However, a truism about oil – dating from 1955 – states that most of the rewards come from the giant oilfields.
Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (4394 words)
Hubbert's peak theory is subject to continued discussion because of the potential effects of lowered oil production, and because of the ongoing debate over aspects of energy policy.
After the peak, but before an oil field is empty, another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover, transport and process a barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in that barrel.
Alternatives to oil are energy sources other than oil which can be used instead of oil and natural gas in one or more applications, including; as a prime energy source, as a transportation fuel and as an ingredient in plastics and pesticides.
  More results at FactBites »

 
 

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