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Encyclopedia > Moore's law
Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965
Growth of transistor counts for Intel processors (dots) and Moore's Law (upper line=18 months; lower line=24 months)
Growth of transistor counts for Intel processors (dots) and Moore's Law (upper line=18 months; lower line=24 months)

Moore's Law is the empirical observation made in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit for minimum component cost doubles every 24 months.[1][2] It is attributed to Gordon E. Moore (born 1929),[3] a co-founder of Intel. Although it is sometimes quoted as every 18 months, Intel's official Moore's Law page, as well as an interview with Gordon Moore himself, states that it is every two years. Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Image File history File links Download high-resolution version (780x668, 7 KB) File links The following pages on the English Wikipedia link to this file (pages on other projects are not listed): Technology Moores Law ... Image File history File links Download high-resolution version (780x668, 7 KB) File links The following pages on the English Wikipedia link to this file (pages on other projects are not listed): Technology Moores Law ... Transistor count is the most common measure of chip complexity. ... Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC, SEHK: 4335), founded in 1968 as Integrated Electronics Corporation, is an American multinational corporation that is best known for designing and manufacturing microprocessors and specialized integrated circuits. ... Mooers Law is an empirical observation of behaviour made by American computer scientist Calvin Mooers in 1959. ... A central concept in science and the scientific method is that all evidence must be empirical, or empirically based, that is, dependent on evidence or consequences that are observable by the senses. ... Photo of transistor types (tape measure marked in centimeters) Transistor in the SMD form factor The transistor is a solid state semiconductor device used for amplification and switching. ... Integrated circuit of Atmel Diopsis 740 System on Chip showing memory blocks, logic and input/output pads around the periphery Microchips with a transparent window, showing the integrated circuit inside. ... Gordon Earle Moore (b. ... Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC, SEHK: 4335), founded in 1968 as Integrated Electronics Corporation, is an American multinational corporation that is best known for designing and manufacturing microprocessors and specialized integrated circuits. ...

Contents

Earliest forms

The term Moore's Law was coined by Carver Mead around 1970.[4] Moore's original statement can be found in his publication "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965: Professor Carver Andress Mead (born 1 May 1934, in Bakersfield, California) is a prominent U.S. computer scientist. ... An integrated circuit (IC) is a thin chip consisting of at least two interconnected semiconductor devices, mainly transistors, as well as passive components like resistors. ... Electronics, an American trade journal published until 1995, was best known for publishing the April 19, 1965 article by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in which he outlined what came to be known as Moores Law. ... April 19 is the 109th day of the year in the Gregorian calendar (110th in leap years). ... Year 1965 (MCMLXV) was a common year starting on Friday (link will display full calendar) of the 1965 Gregorian calendar. ...

The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.[1]

Under the assumption that chip "complexity" is proportional to the number of transistors, regardless of what they do, the law has largely held the test of time to date. However, one could argue that the per-transistor complexity is less in large RAM cache arrays than in execution units. From this perspective, the validity of one formulation of Moore's Law may be more questionable. For other uses, see Transistor (disambiguation). ... Random access memory (usually known by its acronym, RAM) is a type of data storage used in computers. ... In computer engineering, an execution unit is a part of a CPU that performs the operations and calculations called for by the program. ...


Gordon Moore's observation was not named a "law" by Moore himself, but by the Caltech professor, VLSI pioneer, and entrepreneur Carver Mead.[2] Moore, indicating that it cannot be sustained indefinitely, has since observed "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."[5] California Institute of Technology The California Institute of Technology (commonly known as Caltech) is a private, coeducational university located in Pasadena, California, in the United States. ... It has been suggested that VHSIC be merged into this article or section. ... For the sequel to the computer game Entrepreneur, which has no article of its own, see The Corporate Machine. ... Professor Carver Andress Mead (born 1 May 1934, in Bakersfield, California) is a prominent U.S. computer scientist. ...


Moore may have heard Douglas Engelbart, a co-inventor of today's mechanical computer mouse, discuss the projected downscaling of integrated circuit size in a 1960 lecture.[6] In 1975, Moore projected a doubling only every two years. He is adamant that he himself never said "every 18 months", but that is how it has been quoted. The SEMATECH roadmap follows a 24 month cycle. Dr. Douglas C. Engelbart (born January 30, 1925 in Oregon) is an American inventor of German descent. ... For other uses, see Inventor (disambiguation). ... Operating a mechanical 1: Pulling the mouse turns the ball. ... SEMATECH (SEmiconductor MAnufacturing TECHnology) is a non-profit consortium that performs basic research into semiconductor manufacturing. ...


In April 2005, Intel offered $10,000 to purchase a copy of the original Electronics Magazine.[7] David Clark, an engineer living in the UK, was the first to find a copy and offer it to Intel.[8] Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC, SEHK: 4335), founded in 1968 as Integrated Electronics Corporation, is an American multinational corporation that is best known for designing and manufacturing microprocessors and specialized integrated circuits. ...


Understanding Moore's Law

Moore's law is not about just the density of transistors that can be achieved, but about the density of transistors at which the cost per transistor is the lowest[1]. As more transistors are made on a chip the cost to make each transistor reduces but the chance that the chip will not work due to a defect rises. If the rising cost of discarded non working chips is balanced against the reducing cost per transistor of larger chips, then as Moore observed in 1965 there is a number of transistors or complexity at which "a minimum cost" is achieved. He further observed that as transistors were made smaller through advances in photolithography this number would increase "a rate of roughly a factor of two per year".[1] Photolithography is a process used in semiconductor device fabrication to transfer a pattern from a photomask (also called reticle) to the surface of a substrate. ...


Formulations of Moore's Law

PC hard disk capacity (in GB). The plot is logarithmic, so the fit line corresponds to exponential growth.
PC hard disk capacity (in GB). The plot is logarithmic, so the fit line corresponds to exponential growth.

The most popular formulation is of the doubling of the number of transistors on integrated circuits every 18 months. At the end of the 1970s, Moore's Law became known as the limit for the number of transistors on the most complex chips. However, it is also common to cite Moore's Law to refer to the rapidly continuing advance in computing power per unit cost, because increase in transistor count is also a rough measure of computer processing power. On this basis, the power of computers per unit cost - or more colloquially, "bangs per buck" - doubles every 24 months (or, equivalently, increases 32-fold in 10 years). Image File history File links Hard_drive_capacity_over_time. ... Image File history File links Hard_drive_capacity_over_time. ... A personal computer (PC) is a computer whose price, size, and capabilities make it useful for individuals. ... A gigabyte (symbol GB) is a unit of measurement in computers of one thousand million bytes (the same as one billion bytes in the short scale usage). ... A logarithmic scale is a scale of measurement that uses the logarithm of a physical quantity instead of the quantity itself. ... In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ... For other uses, see Transistor (disambiguation). ... Integrated circuit of Atmel Diopsis 740 System on Chip showing memory blocks, logic and input/output pads around the periphery Microchips with a transparent window, showing the integrated circuit inside. ... Average-Cost Method Under the average-cost method, it is assumed that the cost of inventory is based on the average cost of the goods available for sale during the period. ...


A similar law (sometimes called Kryder's Law) has held for hard disk storage cost per unit of information.[9] The rate of progression in disk storage over the past decades has actually sped up more than once, corresponding to the utilization of error correcting codes, the magnetoresistive effect and the giant magnetoresistive effect. The current rate of increase in hard drive capacity is roughly similar to the rate of increase in transistor count. Recent trends show that this rate has been maintained into 2007. Dr. Mark Kryder is Seagate Corp. ... Typical hard drives of the mid-1990s. ... Disk storage is a category of data storage mechanisms for computers; data is recorded on planar surfaces or disks for temporary or permanent storage. ... In information theory and coding, an error-correcting code or ECC is a code in which each data signal conforms to specific rules of construction so that departures from this construction in the received signal can generally be automatically detected and corrected. ... Magnetoresistance is the property of some materials to change the value of their electrical resistance when an external magnetic field is applied to them. ... Founding results of Fert The Giant Magnetoresistance (GMR) is a quantum mechanical effect observed in thin film structures composed of alternating ferromagnetic and nonmagnetic metal layers. ... Typical hard drives of the mid-1990s. ...


According to Gerry/Gerald Butters,[10][11][12] the former head of Lucent's Optical Networking Group at Bell Labs, there is another version, called Butter's Law of Photonics,[13] a formulation which deliberately parallels Moore's law. Butter's Law [14] says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every nine months. Thus, the cost of transmitting a bit over an optical network decreases by half every nine months. The availability of wavelength-division multiplexing (sometimes called "WDM") increased the capacity that could be placed on a single fiber by as much as a factor of 100. Optical networking and DWDM is rapidly bringing down the cost of networking, further progress seems assured. As a result, the wholesale price of data traffic collapsed in the dot-com bubble. Dark fiber overcapacity and the optical network bandwidth oversupply greatly exceeding demand of even the most optimistic forecasts by a factor of up to 30 in many areas. Bell Laboratories (also known as Bell Labs and formerly known as AT&T Bell Laboratories and Bell Telephone Laboratories) was the main research and development arm of the United States Bell System. ... Gordon Moores original graph from 1965 Growth of transistor counts for Intel processors (dots) and Moores Law (upper line=18 months; lower line=24 months) For the observation regarding information retrieval, see Mooers Law. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... The original version of this article was based on FOLDOC, with permission In telecommunications wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) is a technology which multiplexes several optical carrier signals on a single optical fibre by using different wavelengths (colours) of laser light to carry different signals. ... The dot-com bubble was a speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2001 during which stock markets in Western nations saw their value increase rapidly from growth in the new Internet sector and related fields. ... In fibre-optic communications, dark fibre or unlit fibre (or fiber) is the name given to individual fibers that have yet to be used within cables that have been already laid. ... This article does not cite any references or sources. ...


Another version states that RAM storage capacity increases at the same rate as processing power. Random access memory (usually known by its acronym, RAM) is a type of data storage used in computers. ...

Pixels per dollar based on Australian recommended retail price of Kodak digital cameras

Similarly, Barry Hendy of Kodak Australia has plotted the "pixels per dollar" as a basic measure of value for a digital camera, demonstrating the historical linearity (on a log scale) of this market and the opportunity to predict the future trend of digital camera price and resolution. Image File history File linksMetadata Hendys_Law. ... Image File history File linksMetadata Hendys_Law. ...


Due to the mathematical power of exponential growth (similar to the financial power of compound interest), seemingly minor fluctuations in the relative growth rates of CPU performance, RAM capacity, and disk space per dollar have caused the relative costs of these three fundamental computing resources to shift markedly over the years, which in turn has caused significant changes in programming styles. For many programming problems, the developer has to decide on numerous time-space tradeoffs, and throughout the history of computing these choices have been strongly influenced by the shifting relative costs of CPU cycles versus storage space.


An industry driver

Although Moore's Law was initially made in the form of an observation and forecast, the more widely it became accepted, the more it served as a goal for an entire industry. This drove both marketing and engineering departments of semiconductor manufacturers to focus enormous energy aiming for the specified increase in processing power that it was presumed one or more of their competitors would soon actually attain. In this regard, it can be viewed as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Observation is an activity of a sapient or sentient living being (e. ... Prediction of future events is an ancient human wish. ... “Next big thing” redirects here. ... Engineering is the applied science of acquiring and applying knowledge to design, analysis, and/or construction of works for practical purposes. ... A semiconductor is a fuckin solid whose electrical conductivity is in between that of a metal and that of an insulator, and can be controlled over a wide range, either permanently or dynamically. ... This article or section needs copy editing for grammar, style, cohesion, tone and/or spelling. ...


The implications of Moore's Law for computer component suppliers are very significant. A typical major design project (such as an all-new CPU or hard drive) takes between two and five years to reach production-ready status. In consequence, component manufacturers face enormous timescale pressures—just a few weeks of delay in a major project can spell the difference between great success and massive losses, even bankruptcy. Expressed as "a doubling every 18 months", Moore's Law would suggests phenomenal progress for technology over the span of a few years. Expressed on a shorter timescale, however, this would equate to an average performance improvement in the industry as a whole of close to 1% per week. Thus, for a manufacturer in the competitive CPU market, a new product that is expected to take three years to develop and turns out just three or four months late is 10 to 15% slower, bulkier, or lower in capacity than the directly competing products, and is close to unsellable. If instead we accept that performance will double every 24 months, rather than every 18 months, a 3 to 4 month delay would translate to 8-11% lower performance. The NASA Columbia Supercomputer. ... In general, a things components are its parts; the things that compose it. ... Notice of closure stuck on the door of a computer store the day after its parent company, Granville Technology Group Ltd, declared bankruptcy (strictly, put into administration—see text) in the United Kingdom. ... By the mid 20th century humans had achieved a mastery of technology sufficient to leave the surface of the Earth for the first time and explore space. ... // The geological time scale is used by geologists and other scientists to describe the timing and relationships between events that have occurred during the History of Earth. ...


Future trends

As of Q1 2007, most PC processors were being fabricated on a 65nm process, with some 90 nm chips still left in retail channels, mostly from AMD, as they were slightly behind Intel in transitioning away from 90 nm. On January 27, 2007, Intel demonstrated a working 45nm chip codenamed "Penryn", intending mass production to begin in late 2007.[15] A decade ago, chips were built using a 500 nm process. (The diameter of an atom is on the order of 0.1 nm.) Companies are working on using nanotechnology to solve the complex engineering problems involved in producing chips at the 32 nm and smaller levels—a process that may once again postpone the industry's meeting the limits of Moore's Law. A fiscal year (or financial year or accounting reference date) is a 12-month period used for calculating annual (yearly) financial reports in businesses and other organizations. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era. ... The 65 nanometer (65 nm) process is the next milestone in semiconductor manufacturing and fabrication. ... A nanometre (American spelling: nanometer, symbol nm) is a unit of length in the metric system, equal to one thousand-millionth of a metre, which is the current SI base unit of length. ... Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ... Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC, SEHK: 4335), founded in 1968 as Integrated Electronics Corporation, is an American multinational corporation that is best known for designing and manufacturing microprocessors and specialized integrated circuits. ... is the 27th day of the year in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2007 (MMVII) is the current year, a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar and the AD/CE era. ... The 45 nanometer (45 nm) process is the next milestone (to be commercially viable in late 2006 to early 2007) in semiconductor manufacturing and fabrication. ... The Core 2 brand refers to a range of Intels mobile, desktop dual- and quad-core 64-bit x86 CPUs based on the Intel Core microarchitecture, a microarchitecture that evolved from the 32-bit dual-core Yonah mobile processor. ... Buckminsterfullerene C60, also known as the buckyball, is the simplest of the carbon structures known as fullerenes. ...


Less recent computer industry technology "roadmaps" predict (as of 2001) that Moore's Law will continue for several chip generations. Depending on the doubling time used in the calculations, this could mean up to a hundredfold increase in transistor count per chip within a decade. The semiconductor industry technology roadmap uses a three-year doubling time for microprocessors, leading to a tenfold increase in the next decade. 2001 is a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar, and also: The International Year of the Volunteer The United Nations Year of Dialogue Among Civilizations Events January January 1 - A black monolith measuring approximately nine feet tall appears in Seattles Magnuson Park, placed by an anonymous... A microprocessor is a programmable digital electronic component that incorporates the functions of a central processing unit (CPU) on a single semiconducting integrated circuit (IC). ...


In early 2006, IBM researchers announced that they had developed a technique to print circuitry only 29.9 nm wide using deep-ultraviolet (DUV, 193-nanometer) optical lithography. IBM claims that this technique may allow chipmakers to use current methods for seven years while continuing to achieve results forecast by Moore's Law. New methods that can achieve smaller circuits are expected to be substantially more expensive. IBM redirects here. ... “UV” redirects here. ... Photolithography is a process used in semiconductor device fabrication to transfer a pattern from a photomask (also called reticle) to the surface of a substrate. ...


Since such rapid exponential improvement would, within a generation or two, allow to put 100 GHz personal computers in every home and 20 GHz devices in every pocket, some commentators have speculated that sooner or later computers will meet or exceed any conceivable need for computation. This is only true for some problems—there are others where exponential increases in processing power are matched or exceeded by exponential increases in complexity as the problem size increases. (See computational complexity theory and complexity classes P and NP for a (somewhat theoretical) discussion of such problems, which occur very commonly in applications such as scheduling.) In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ... A gigahertz is a billion hertz or a thousand megahertz, a measure of frequency. ... Look up computation in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... As a branch of the theory of computation in computer science, computational complexity theory describes the scalability of algorithms, and the inherent difficulty in providing scalable algorithms for specific computational problems. ... Diagram of complexity classes provided that P ≠ NP. The existence of problems outside both P and NP-complete in this case was established by Ladner. ... Scheduling is a key concept in computer multitasking and multiprocessing operating system design, and in real-time operating system design. ...


Extrapolation partly based on Moore's Law has led futurists such as Vernor Vinge, Bruce Sterling, and Ray Kurzweil to speculate about a technological singularity. However, on April 13, 2005, Gordon Moore himself stated in an interview that the law may not hold for too long, since transistors would eventually reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels: In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of constructing new data points outside a discrete set of known data points. ... Futurists is a term often used to describe management consultants who advise corporations on a wide range of global trends, risk management and potential market opportunities. ... Vernor Steffen Vinge (IPA: ) (born February 10, 1944) is a mathematician, computer scientist and science fiction author who is best known for his Hugo award-winning novels A Fire Upon the Deep and A Deepness in the Sky, as well as for his 1993 essay The Technological Singularity, in which... Michael Bruce Sterling (born April 14, 1954) is an American science fiction author, best known for his novels and his seminal work on the Mirrorshades anthology, which defined the cyberpunk genre. ... Dr. Raymond Kurzweil (born February 12, 1948) is a pioneer in the fields of optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic musical keyboards. ... When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of paradigm shifts for key events in human history show an exponential trend. ... is the 103rd day of the year (104th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... Photo of transistor types (tape measure marked in centimeters) Transistor in the SMD form factor The transistor is a solid state semiconductor device used for amplification and switching. ... The general meaning of atomic is irreducible. That is, reduced to the smallest possible part. ...

In terms of size [of transistor] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions.[16]

While this time horizon for Moore's Law scaling is possible, it does not come without underlying engineering challenges. One of the major challenges in integrated circuits that use nanoscale transistors is increase in parameter variation and leakage currents. As a result of variation and leakage, the design margins available to do predictive design are becoming harder. Such systems also dissipate considerable power even when not switching. Adaptive and statistical design along with leakage power reduction is critical to sustain scaling of CMOS. A good treatment of these topics is covered in Leakage in Nanometer CMOS Technologies. Other scaling challenges include: For other uses, see Atom (disambiguation). ... A mite next to a gear set produced using MEMS, the precursor to nanotechnology. ... Subthreshold leakage of an NMOS Subthreshold leakage is the current that flows from the drain to source of a MOSFET when the transistor is supposed to be off. ... All Saints Chapel in the Cathedral Basilica of St. ... For Wikipedia statistics, see m:Statistics Statistics is the science and practice of developing human knowledge through the use of empirical data expressed in quantitative form. ... Static CMOS Inverter Complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) (see-moss, IPA: ), is a major class of integrated circuits. ...

  1. The ability to control parasitic resistance and capacitance in transistors,
  2. The ability to reduce resistance and capacitance in electrical interconnects,
  3. The ability to maintain proper transistor electrostatics to allow the gate terminal to control the ON/OFF behavior,
  4. Increasing effect of line edge roughness,
  5. Dopant fluctuations,
  6. System level power delivery,
  7. Thermal design to effectively handle the dissipation of delivered power, and
  8. Solving all these challenges at an ever-reducing manufacturing cost of the overall system.
Kurzweil expansion of Moore's Law from integrated circuits to earlier transistors, vacuum tubes, relays and electromechanical computers.
Kurzweil expansion of Moore's Law from integrated circuits to earlier transistors, vacuum tubes, relays and electromechanical computers.

Kurzweil projects that a continuation of Moore's Law until 2019 will result in transistor features just a few atoms in width. Although this means that the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course, he speculates that this does not mean the end of Moore's Law: A parasite is an organism that lives in or on the living tissue of a host organism at the expense of it. ... Electrical resistance is a measure of the degree to which an electrical component opposes the passage of current. ... Capacitance is a measure of the amount of electric charge stored (or separated) for a given electric potential. ... Electrical resistance is a measure of the degree to which an electrical component opposes the passage of current. ... Capacitance is a measure of the amount of electric charge stored (or separated) for a given electric potential. ... The term connection (also rendered connexion - this alternative spelling is now generally considered old-fashioned, but it was the house style of The Times of London until at least the late 1970s) has various uses, including: An act of connecting two or more physical entities in a physical sense or... A student demonstrating the effects of electrostatics. ... Large power N-channel field effect transistor The field-effect transistor (FET) is a transistor that relies on an electric field to control the shape and hence the conductivity of a channel in a semiconductor material. ... A dopant, also called doping agent and dope, is an impurity element added to a semiconductor lattice in low concentrations in order to alter the optical/electrical properties of the semiconductor. ... This page is a candidate for speedy deletion. ... Example of a thermal column between the ground and a cumulus This article is about the atmospheric phenomenon. ... Image File history File links Download high resolution version (1020x1026, 134 KB) Coutesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. ... Image File history File links Download high resolution version (1020x1026, 134 KB) Coutesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. ... An integrated circuit (IC) is a thin chip consisting of at least two interconnected semiconductor devices, mainly transistors, as well as passive components like resistors. ... For other uses, see Transistor (disambiguation). ... Structure of a vacuum tube diode Structure of a vacuum tube triode In electronics, a vacuum tube, electron tube, or (outside North America) thermionic valve or just valve, is a device used to amplify, switch or modify a signal by controlling the movement of electrons in an evacuated space. ... Automotive style miniature relay A relay is an electrical switch that opens and closes under the control of another electrical circuit. ... In engineering, electromechanics combines the sciences of electromagnetism of electrical engineering and mechanics. ... Dr. Raymond Kurzweil (born February 12, 1948) is a pioneer in the fields of optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic musical keyboards. ... Photolithography is a process used in semiconductor device fabrication to transfer a pattern from a photomask (also called reticle) to the surface of a substrate. ...

Moore's Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to forecast accelerating price-performance ratios. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to [Newman's] relay-based "Robinson" machine that cracked the [German Lorenz cipher], to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer.[17]

Thus, Kurzweil conjectures that it is likely that some new type of technology will replace current integrated-circuit technology, and that Moore's Law will hold true long after 2020. He believes that the exponential growth of Moore's Law will continue beyond the use of integrated circuits into technologies that will lead to the technological singularity. The Law of Accelerating Returns described by Ray Kurzweil has in many ways altered the public's perception of Moore's Law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's Law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when it actually only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's Law" in this broader sense to describe ideas like those put forth by Kurzweil. For other uses, see Paradigm (disambiguation). ... The Eleventh United States Census was taken June 1, 1890. ... Maxwell Herman Alexander Newman (February 7, 1897 – February 22, 1984) was a British mathematician. ... Heath Robinson was a machine used by British codebreakers at Bletchley Park during World War II to solve messages in a German teleprinter cipher, the Lorenz SZ40/42. ... For the fish, see Tuna. ... CBS Broadcasting, Inc. ... An election is a decision making process where people choose people to hold official offices. ... Dwight David Ike Eisenhower (October 14, 1890–March 28, 1969), American soldier and politician, was the 34th President of the United States (1953–1961) and supreme commander of the Allied forces in Europe during World War II, with the rank of General of the Army. ... Rockets (including missiles) can be launched from the following: for a launch into an orbital spaceflight and beyond: a launch pad, including a floating platform (see San Marco platform, Sea Launch) for the launch into a suborbital flight also: a missile silo a mobile launcher vehicle a submarine air launch... The NASA Columbia Supercomputer. ... In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ... When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of paradigm shifts for key events in human history show an exponential trend. ... When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of paradigm shifts for key events in human history show an exponential trend. ... A semiconductor is a fuckin solid whose electrical conductivity is in between that of a metal and that of an insulator, and can be controlled over a wide range, either permanently or dynamically. ... Look up circuit in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... Future studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. ...


Krauss and Starkman announced an ultimate limit of around 600 years in their paper "Universal Limits of Computation", based on rigorous estimation of total information-processing capacity of any system in the Universe. The Universe is defined as the summation of all particles and energy that exist and the space-time in which all events occur. ...


Then again, the law has often met obstacles that appeared insurmountable, before soon surmounting them. In that sense, Moore says he now sees his law as more beautiful than he had realised: "Moore's Law is a violation of Murphy's Law. Everything gets better and better."[18] It has been suggested that Finagles law and Sods law be merged into this article or section. ...


Other considerations

Not all aspects of computing technology develop in capacities and speed according to Moore's Law. Random Access Memory (RAM) speeds and hard drive seek times improve at best a few percentage points each year. Since the capacity of RAM and hard drives is increasing much faster than is their access speed, intelligent use of their capacity becomes more and more important. It now makes sense in many cases to trade space for time, such as by precomputing indexes and storing them in ways that facilitate rapid access, at the cost of using more disk and memory space: space is getting cheaper relative to time. A processors core Computing is a very broad topic that has become pandemic to modern uses of technology. ... Random access memory (usually known by its acronym, RAM) is a type of data storage used in computers. ... Typical hard drives of the mid-1990s. ...


Another sometimes misunderstood point is that exponentially improved hardware does not necessarily imply exponentially improved software performance to go with it. The productivity of software developers most assuredly does not increase exponentially with the improvement in hardware, but by most measures has increased only slowly and fitfully over the decades. Software tends to get larger and more complicated over time, and Wirth's law even states humorously that "Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster". For other uses, see Hardware (disambiguation). ... Computer software (or simply software) refers to one or more computer programs and data held in the storage of a computer for some purpose. ... Wirths law in computing was made popular by Niklaus Wirth in 1995. ...


Moreover, there is a popular misconception that the clock speed of a processor determines its speed, also known as the Megahertz Myth. This actually also depends on the number of instructions per tick which can be executed (as well as the complexity of each instruction, see MIPS, RISC and CISC), and so the clock speed can only be used for comparison between two identical circuits. Of course, other factors must be taken into consideration such as the bus width and speed of the peripherals. Therefore, most popular evaluations of "computer speed" are inherently biased, without an understanding of the underlying technology. This was especially true during the Pentium era when popular manufacturers played with public perceptions of speed, focusing on advertising the clock rate of new products.[19] This is a list of uncontroversial, undisputed clarifications to common misconceptions. ... This article or section is not written in the formal tone expected of an encyclopedia article. ... Million instructions per second (MIPS) is a measure of a computers processor speed. ... Reduced Instruction Set Computer (RISC), is a microprocessor CPU design philosophy that favors a smaller and simpler set of instructions that all take about the same amount of time to execute. ... A complex instruction set computer (CISC) is a microprocessor instruction set architecture (ISA) in which each instruction can execute several low-level operations, such as a load from memory, an arithmetic operation, and a memory store, all in a single instruction. ... PCI Express bus card slots (from top to bottom: x4, x16, x1 and x16), compared to a traditional 32-bit PCI bus card slot (bottom) In computer architecture, a bus is a subsystem that transfers data or power between computer components inside a computer or between computers, and a bus... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged into Computer hardware. ... This article does not cite any references or sources. ...


It is also important to note that transistor density in multi-core CPUs does not necessarily reflect a similar increase in practical computing power, due to the unparallelised nature of most applications. Transistor count is the most common measure of chip complexity. ... This article does not cite any references or sources. ... Die of an Intel 80486DX2 microprocessor (actual size: 12×6. ... Thread-level parallelism (TLP) is the parallelism inherent in an application that runs multiple threads at once. ...


As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the cost for producers to achieve Moore's Law has the opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. As the cost of semiconductor equipment is expected to continue increasing, manufacturers must sell larger and larger quantities of chips to remain profitable. (The cost to tape-out a chip at 180 nm was roughly US$300,000. The cost to tape-out a chip at 90 nm exceeds US$750,000, and is expected to exceed US$1,000,000 for 65 nm.) In recent years, analysts have observed a decline in the number of "design starts" at advanced process nodes (130 nm and below for 2007). While these observations were made in the period after the 2000 economic downturn, the decline may be evidence that traditional manufacturers in the long-term global market cannot economically sustain Moore's Law. However, Intel was reported in 2005 as stating that the downsizing of silicon chips with good economics can continue during the next decade.[20] Intel's prediction of increasing use of materials other than silicon was verified in mid-2006, as was its intent of using trigate transistors from around 2009 [citation needed]. Researchers from IBM and Georgia Tech created a new speed record when they ran a silicon/germanium helium supercooled transistor at 500 gigahertz (GHz).[21] The transistor operated above 500 GHz at 4.5 K (—451°F)[22] and simulations showed that it could likely run at 1 THz (1,000 GHz), although this was only a single transistor, and practical desktop CPUs running at this speed are extremely unlikely using contemporary silicon chip techniques [citation needed]. Consumers refers to individuals or households that purchase and use goods and services generated within the economy. ... In electronics, tape-out is the name of the final stage of the design of an integrated circuit such as a microprocessor, the point at which the description of a circuit is sent for manufacture. ... This article needs cleanup. ... General Name, Symbol, Number silicon, Si, 14 Chemical series metalloids Group, Period, Block 14, 3, p Appearance as coarse powder, dark grey with bluish tinge Standard atomic weight 28. ... From the 1950s onward, flat/planar transistors have been used, where the gates lay flat across the substrate. ... IBM redirects here. ... The Georgia Institute of Technology, commonly known as Georgia Tech, is a public, coeducational research university, part of the University System of Georgia, and located in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, with satellite campuses in Savannah, Georgia, Metz, France and Singapore. ... General Name, Symbol, Number germanium, Ge, 32 Chemical series metalloids Group, Period, Block 14, 4, p Appearance grayish white Atomic mass 72. ... General Name, Symbol, Number helium, He, 2 Chemical series noble gases Group, Period, Block 18, 1, s Appearance colorless Standard atomic weight 4. ... Supercooling is the process of chilling a liquid below its freezing point, without its becoming solid. ... The kelvin (symbol: K) is a unit increment of temperature and is one of the seven SI base units. ...


See also

The speedup of a program using multiple processors in parallel computing is limited by the sequential fraction of the program. ... Bells Law of Computer Classes formulated by Gordon Bell in 1972 describes how computer classes form, evolve and may eventually die out. ... The learning curve effect and the closely related experience curve effect express the relationship between experience and efficiency. ... In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ... Gates Law is the observation that the speed of commercial software generally slows by fifty percent every 18 months. ... The history of computing hardware starting in the 1960s begins with the development of the integrated circuit (IC), which formed the basis of the first computer kits and home computers in the 1970s, notable examples being the MITS Altair, Apple II and Commodore PET; and which eventually powered personal and... Hofstadters Law states that: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadters Law. ... PC hard disk capacity (in GB). ... The logistic function or logistic curve models the S-curve of growth of some set P. The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as competition arises, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops. ... This is a list of observations named after people (eponymous observations). ... Molecule of alanine used in NMR implementation of error correction. ... Rocks Law, named for Arthur Rock, says that the cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles every four years. ... An illustration of the principle. ... A semiconductor is a fuckin solid whose electrical conductivity is in between that of a metal and that of an insulator, and can be controlled over a wide range, either permanently or dynamically. ... Wirths law in computing was made popular by Niklaus Wirth in 1995. ...

References and notes

  1. ^ a b c Cramming more components onto integrated circuits (PDF) 4. Electronics Magazine (1965). Retrieved on November 11, 2006.
  2. ^ a b Excerpts from A Conversation with Gordon Moore: Moore’s Law (PDF) 1. Intel Corporation (2005). Retrieved on May 2, 2006.
  3. ^ Not to be confused with another G.E. Moore, the philosopher George Edward Moore, the creator of Moore's paradox.
  4. ^ The Technical Impact of Moore's Law. IEEE solid-state circuits society newsletter (2006).
  5. ^ "Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore" By Manek Dubash, Techworld 13 April 2005 http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?NewsID=3477
  6. ^ NY Times article April 17, 2005
  7. ^ Michael Kanellos (2005-04-12). $10,000 reward for Moore's Law original. CNET News.com. Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  8. ^ Moore's Law original issue found. BBC News Online (2005-4-22). Retrieved on July 10, 2007.
  9. ^ * Walter, Chip. "Kryder's Law", Scientific American, (Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck GmbH), 2005-07-25. Retrieved on 2006-10-29. 
  10. ^ Forbes.com - Profile - Gerald Butters is a communications industry veteran
  11. ^ Forbes.com - Profile - Gerry Butters is a communications industry veteran
  12. ^ LAMBDA OpticalSystems - Board of Directors - Gerry Butters
  13. ^ As We May Communicate
  14. ^ Speeding net traffic with tiny mirrors
  15. ^ Meet the world's first 45 nm transistors. Intel (2007-01-27). Retrieved on January 24, 2007.
  16. ^ Manek Dubash (2005-04-13). Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore. Techworld. Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  17. ^ Ray Kurzweil (2001-03-07). The Law of Accelerating Returns. KurzweilAI.net. Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  18. ^ Moore's Law at 40 - Happy birthday. The Economist (2005-03-23). Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  19. ^ Matthew Broersma (2006-06-24). Intel, Aberdeen attack AMD speed ratings. ZDNet UK. Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  20. ^ New life for Moores Law. CNET News.com (2006-04-19). Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  21. ^ Chilly chip shatters speed record. BBC Online (2006-06-20). Retrieved on June 24, 2006.
  22. ^ Georgia Tech/IBM Announce New Chip Speed Record. Georgia Institute of Technology (2006-06-20). Retrieved on June 24, 2006.

Electronics, an American trade journal published until 1995, was best known for publishing the April 19, 1965 article by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in which he outlined what came to be known as Moores Law. ... November 11 is the 315th day of the year (316th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar, with 50 days remaining. ... Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC, SEHK: 4335), founded in 1968 as Integrated Electronics Corporation, is an American multinational corporation that is best known for designing and manufacturing microprocessors and specialized integrated circuits. ... May 2 is the 122nd day of the year in the Gregorian calendar (123rd in leap years). ... Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... A philosopher is a person who thinks deeply regarding people, society, the world, and/or the universe. ... George Edward Moore, usually known as G.E. Moore, (November 4, 1873 – October 24, 1958) was a distinguished and hugely influential English philosopher who was educated and taught at the University of Cambridge. ... G. E. Moore remarked once in a lecture on the absurdity involved in saying something like Its raining outside but I dont believe that it is. ... is the 103rd day of the year (104th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... is the 107th day of the year (108th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... is the 206th day of the year (207th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... is the 302nd day of the year (303rd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...

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Data

  • Intel (IA-32) CPU Speeds since 1994. Speed increases in recent years have seemed to slow down with regard to percentage increase per year (available in PDF or PNG format).

FAQs

  • A C|net FAQ about Moore's Law

  Results from FactBites:
 
moores law comments (641 words)
Moore predicted: "Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home computers - or at least terminals connected to a central computer, automatic controls for automobiles, and personal portable communications equipment." This is a remarkable prediction given that it was made in 1965.
Thus, Moore's Law was the driver of a positive feedback loop that made Gordon Moore's 1965 predictions come true: the integrated circuit is playing a central role in every facet of modern life.
Moore's Law was not only a prediction - it also formed a blueprint for the development of the semiconductor industry.
Moore's Law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (2478 words)
If Moore's Law were applicable to the airline industry, a flight from New York to Paris in 1978 that cost $900 and took seven hours, would now cost about $0.01 and take less than one second.
Although Moore's Law was initially made in the form of an observation and forecast, the more widely it became accepted, the more it served as a goal for an entire industry.
"Moore's Law is a violation of Murphy's Law.
  More results at FactBites »

 
 

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