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Encyclopedia > Hubbert peak theory
Peak oil
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The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil. For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ... The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. ... Image File history File links Crystal_128_energy. ... Image File history File links Sustainable_development. ... Drilling rig in a small oil field Near Sarnia, Ontario, 2001 An oil field is an area with an abundance of oil wells extracting petroleum (oil) from below ground. ... Petro redirects here. ... For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ...


Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.


The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. Extraction roughly follows the discovery curve after a time lag (typically about 35 years[1][2]) for development. The theory is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume. Hubbert's theory was initially greeted with skepticism by many in the oil industry, but has since gained widespread acceptance. Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 - October 11, 1989) was a geophysicist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ...

A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956.
2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union
World energy consumption & predictions, 1970-2025. Source: International Energy Outlook 2004.
World energy consumption & predictions, 1970-2025. Source: International Energy Outlook 2004.

Contents

Image File history File links Hubbert_peak_oil_plot. ... Image File history File links Hubbert_peak_oil_plot. ... Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a Geologist by education and a geophysicist by profession who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ... A car from 1956 Year 1956 (MCMLVI) was a leap year starting on Sunday (link will display full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... Image File history File links Size of this preview: 800 × 553 pixelsFull resolution (853 × 590 pixel, file size: 86 KB, MIME type: image/png)This graph shows that oil production has already peaked in non-OPEC, non-former Soviet Union countries. ... Image File history File links Size of this preview: 800 × 553 pixelsFull resolution (853 × 590 pixel, file size: 86 KB, MIME type: image/png)This graph shows that oil production has already peaked in non-OPEC, non-former Soviet Union countries. ... Not to be confused with APEC. OPEC Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international cartel[1][2] made up of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Ecuador (which rejoined OPRC in November 2007) . The... (Source: Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2004, http://www. ... (Source: Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2004, http://www. ...

Hubbert's peak

"Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions.


Peak oil as a proper noun, or "Hubbert's peak" applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth will enter a terminal decline. Based on his theory, in a paper[3] he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, Hubbert predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970 (actual peak was 1970). Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interview[4] Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years. For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ... The American Petroleum Institute, commonly referred to as API, is the main U.S. trade association for the oil and natural gas industry, representing about 400 corporate members involved in all aspects of the industry. ...


Hubbert's theory

Hubbert curve

The standard Hubbert curve. For applications, the x and y scales are replaced by time and production scales.
The standard Hubbert curve. For applications, the x and y scales are replaced by time and production scales.
U.S. Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005
Norway's oil production and a Hubbert curve approximating it.‎
Norway's oil production and a Hubbert curve approximating it.‎

In 1956, Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the Hubbert curve, the derivative of the logistic curve, for estimating future production. plot of hubbert curve generated by gnuplot with set nokey, set grid, set size 0. ... plot of hubbert curve generated by gnuplot with set nokey, set grid, set size 0. ... The Hubbert curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic curve. ... Image File history File links US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005. ... Image File history File links US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005. ... Image File history File links Norway_Hubbert. ... Image File history File links Norway_Hubbert. ... A car from 1956 Year 1956 (MCMLVI) was a leap year starting on Sunday (link will display full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... The Hubbert curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic curve. ... The logistic function or logistic curve is defined by the mathematical formula: for real parameters a, m, n, and . ...


Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.


The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been. It also has a single peak.


Given past oil production data, a Hubbert curve may be constructed that attempts to approximate past data, and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way. Cavallo[5] defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the U.S. peak as the derivative of:

 Q(t) = {Q_{{rm max}}over(1 + a e^{bt})}

where Qmax is the total resource available (ultimate recovery of crude oil), Q(t) the cumulative production, and a and b are constants. The year of maximum annual production (peak) is:

 t_{{rm max}} = ({1over b})ln({1over a})

Use of multiple curves

The sum of multiple Hubbert curves can be used in order to model more complicated real life scenarios.[6]


Definition of reserves

Almost all of Hubbert peaks must be put in the context of high ore grade. Except for fissionable materials, any resource, including oil, is theoretically recoverable from the environment with the right technology. A current example would be biofuel. However, a genetically engineered organism that produces crude oil would not invalidate Hubbert's peak for oil. His research was about the "easy" oil, "easy" metals, and so forth that can be recovered before a society considers greatly advanced mining efforts and how to time the necessity of such resource acquisition advancements or substitutions by knowing an "easy" resource's probable peak. Also, as reserves become more difficult to extract there is the possibility that mining or alternatives are too expensive for developing countries. Ore grade is a measure that describes the concentration of a valuable natural material (such as metals or minerals) in its surrounding ore. ... For articles on specific fuels used in vehicles, see Biogas, Bioethanol, Biobutanol, Biodiesel, and Straight vegetable oil. ... A developing country is a country with low average income compared to the world average. ...


The "easy" oil constraint also applies to "abiotic oil", a theory believed by virtually no notable U.S. geologists, although it is believed by some Russian and Ukrainian geologists. This theory states that some oil is created through other methods than conventionally understood biogenic processes. However, in order to have any effect on Hubbert peak theory applied to oil, this other creation of oil would have to occur at a rate comparable to current oil depletion, something that has not been credibly observed. The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin holds that natural petroleum was formed from deep carbon deposits, perhaps dating to the formation of the Earth. ... Oil depletion is the inescapable result of extracting and consuming oil faster than it can be replaced with artificial equivalents, due to the fact that the formation of new natural petroleum is a continuous geologic process which takes millions of years. ...


For heavy crude or deep water drilling attempts, such as Noxal oil field or tar sands or oil shale, the price of the oil extracted will have to include the extra effort required to mine these resources. According to the U.S. Minerals Management Service, areas such as the Outer Continental Shelf may also incur higher costs due to environmental concerns. So not all oil reserves are equal, and the more difficult reserves are predicted by Hubbert as being typical of the post-peak side of the Hubbert curve. Heavy crude oil is the type of crude oil which is characterised by the presence of high amount of wax in it, as compared to light crude oil which contains a lesser amount of wax. ... Noxal is a deep underwater oil field in the Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico that was once believed to contain up to 10 billion barrels of crude oil. ... Athabasca Oil Sands Tar sands is a common name of what are more properly called bituminous sands, but also commonly referred to as oil sands or (in Venezuela) extra-heavy oil. ... Oil shale Oil shale is a general term applied to a fine-grained sedimentary rock containing significant traces of kerogen (a solid mixture of organic chemical compounds) that have not been buried for sufficient time to produce conventional fossil fuels. ... The purpose of the Minerals Management Service (MMS), as part of the U.S. Department of the Interior, is to manage the mineral resources on the nations Outer Continental Shelf in an environmentally sound and safe manner, and to collect, verify, and distribute, in a timely fashion, mineral revenues... The Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) is a peculiarity of the political geography of the United States and is the part of the internationally recognized continental shelf of the United States which does not fall under the jurisdictions of the individual U.S. states. ...


Reliability

US oil production (crude oil only) and Hubbert high estimate.
US oil production (crude oil only) and Hubbert high estimate.

Generally the only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect. United States oil production peaked in 1970, and this provides the greatest evidence to support the theory. Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ...


Hubbert, in his 1956 paper,[3] made two predictions for the US conventional oil production (crude oil + condensate):

  • a low estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equals to 6%, an ultimate resource equals to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965.
  • a high estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equals to 6% and ultimate resource equals to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970.

Forty years later, the high estimate has been proven to be remarkably accurate in terms of production level and cumulative production. In 2005, the US production was 1.55 Gb with a cumulative production of 176.4 Gb (crude oil + condensate) and the Hubbert model is predicting 1.17 Gb (24% lower) and 178.2 Gb respectively.


Economics

Oil imports by country
Oil imports by country

Image File history File links Download high resolution version (1469x628, 53 KB) Summary oil imports in bbl/day, as listed on the CIA factbook Licensing File links The following pages link to this file: Petroleum ... Image File history File links Download high resolution version (1469x628, 53 KB) Summary oil imports in bbl/day, as listed on the CIA factbook Licensing File links The following pages link to this file: Petroleum ...

Energy return on energy investment

When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or EROEI). Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process. As the EROEI drops to one, or equivalently the Net energy gain falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source. This happens long before the resource is physically exhausted. In physics, energy economics and ecological energetics, EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), ERoEI, or EROI (Energy Return On Investment), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource. ... Net Energy Gain is a concept important in energy economics, referring to a surplus condition in the difference between the energy required to harvest an energy source and the energy provided by that same source. ...


Note that it is important to understand the distinction between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is. Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 0.5 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using natural gas to fuel enhanced oil recovery. Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most Athabasca Tar Sands plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to Ethanol fuel produced with a net EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because methods to measure EROEI are in debate. The barrel of oil equivalent (bboe, sometimes BOE) is a unit of energy based on the approximate energy released by burning one barrel of crude oil. ... For other uses, see Natural gas (disambiguation). ... Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) is a generic term for techniques for increasing the amount of oil that can be extracted from an oil field. ... Tar sands in Alberta The Athabasca Tar Sands is a large deposit of tar sands in north-western Canada located mainly in the province of Alberta and, to a much lesser degree Saskatchewan. ... Information on pump, California. ...


Growth-based economic models

In so far as economic growth is driven by oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believed [7]: World GDP/capita changed very little for most of human history before the industrial revolution. ...

Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of nongrowth.

Some economists describe the problem as uneconomic growth or a false economy. At the political right, Fred Ikle has warned about "conservatives addicted to the Utopia of Perpetual Growth" [8]. Brief oil interruptions in 1973 and 1979 markedly slowed - but did not stop - the growth of world GDP [9]. Uneconomic growth, in welfare economics, human development theory and some forms of ecological economics, is economic growth which reflects or creates a decline in human well-being. ... This article needs to be cleaned up to conform to a higher standard of quality. ... Dr. Fred Charles Ikle is a Distinguished Scholar with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ...


Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.[6] The Green Revolution was the worldwide transformation of agriculture that led to significant increases in agricultural production between the 1940s and 1960s. ... Fossil fuels are hydrocarbon-containing natural resources such as coal, petroleum and natural gas. ... Fertilizers are chemicals given to plants with the intention of promoting growth; they are usually applied either via the soil or by foliar spraying. ... the plane is spreading pesticide. ... Oil refineries are key to obtaining hydrocarbons; crude oil is processed through several stages to form desirable hydrocarbons, used in fuel and other commercial products. ... Irrigation is the artificial application of water to the soil usually for assisting in growing crops. ...


David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy the maximum U.S. population for a sustainable economy at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.[7] Without population reduction, this study predicts an agricultural crisis beginning in 2020, becoming critical c. 2050. The peaking of global oil along with the decline in regional natural gas production may precipitate this agricultural crisis sooner than generally expected. Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.[8][9] Cornell redirects here. ... The United States Census of year 2000, conducted by the Census Bureau, determined the resident population of the United States on April 1, 2000, to be 281,421,906, an increase of 13. ... The Earth Day flag includes a NASA photo. ... Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the worlds population. ... 2050 (MML) will be a common year starting on Saturday of the Gregorian calendar. ... For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Natural gas (disambiguation). ... ‹ The template below (Expand) is being considered for deletion. ... This article is about extreme malnutrition. ...


Hubbert peaks

Although Hubbert peak theory receives most attention in relation to peak oil production, it has also been applied to other natural resources. For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ...


Natural gas

While Hubbert correctly predicted peak oil timing in the United States (under his higher of two scenarios), the peak he predicted for natural gas was very far off. In 2000, U.S. natural gas production was 2.4 times higher than Hubbert had predicted in 1956 and has not produced in a fashion of the logistic curve Hubbert initially envisioned.


The North American peak happened in 2001, according to Western Gas Resources Inc; according to Doug Reynolds, the peak will occur in 2007[10]; according to Bentley, production will peak anywhere from 2010 to 2020.[10]


Since compressed natural gas powered cars are already available in North America, peak oil and peak gas are related for transportation usage. Typical North America vehicles carry this diamond shape symbol, meaning it is running on compressed natural gas fuel. ...


Because gas transport is a complicated operation, the global peak of gas is currently less important than the peak per continent. Due to higher gas prices LNG transportation has become economic. This leads to high investments in LNG production and transportation, which will lead to a more global gas market. Liquefied natural gas or LNG is natural gas that has been cooled until it becomes liquid, and it is stored in tanks. ...


Natural gas production may have peaked on the North American continent in 2003, with the possible exception of Alaskan gas supplies which cannot be developed until a pipeline is constructed. Natural gas production in the North Sea has also peaked. UK production was at its highest point in 2000, and declining production and increased prices are now a sensitive political issue. Even if new extraction techniques yield additional sources of natural gas, like coalbed methane, the energy returned on energy invested will be much lower than traditional gas sources, which inevitably leads to higher costs to consumers of natural gas. The North Sea is a sea of the Atlantic Ocean, located between the coasts of Norway and Denmark in the east, the coast of the British Isles in the west, and the German, Dutch, Belgian and French coasts in the south. ... Year 2000 (MM) was a leap year starting on Saturday (link will display full 2000 Gregorian calendar). ... Coalbed methane, or coalbed gas, refers to methane deposits in the pores of coal seams. ... In physics, energy economics and ecological energetics, EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), ERoEI, or EROI (Energy Return On Investment), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource. ...


The United States accounts for 24% of world natural gas consumption [11]. Since natural gas is the single largest feedstock used to produce fertilizers, an increase in natural gas prices could provide upward pressure on food costs, in addition to the increase in the transportation component of food prices. Spreading manure, an organic fertilizer Fertilizers (also spelled fertilisers) are compounds given to plants to promote growth; they are usually applied either via the soil, for uptake by plant roots, or by foliar feeding, for uptake through leaves. ...


Coal

Peak coal is significantly further out than peak oil, but we can observe the example of anthracite in the USA, a high grade coal whose production peaked in the 1920s. Anthracite was studied by Hubbert, and matches a curve closely[11]. Pennsylvania's coal production also matches Hubbert's curve closely, but this does not mean that coal in Pennsylvania is exhausted--far from it. If production in Pennsylvania returned at its all time high, there are reserves for 190 years. Hubbert had recoverable coal reserves worldwide at 2500 × 109 metric tons and peaking around 2150 (depending on usage). Anthracite coal Anthracite (Greek Ανθρακίτης, literally a form of coal, from Anthrax [Άνθραξ], coal) is a hard, compact variety of mineral coal that has a high luster. ... Coal Example chemical structure of coal Coal (pronounced ) is a fossil fuel formed in swamp ecosystems where plant remains were saved by water and mud from oxidization and biodegradation. ... {cleanup} 2150 is the title of a work of fiction written by Don and Thea Pylm in 1970. ...


Fissionable materials

In a paper in 1956 [12], after a review of US fissionable reserves, Hubbert notes of nuclear power:

There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may at last have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."

Technologies such as thorium, reprocessing and fast breeders can, in theory, considerably extend the life of uranium reserves. Roscoe Bartlett claims [13] General Name, Symbol, Number thorium, Th, 90 Chemical series Actinides Group, Period, Block n/a, 7, f Appearance silvery white Standard atomic weight 232. ... // Nuclear reprocessing separates any usable elements (e. ... The fast breeder or fast breeder reactor (FBR) is a fast neutron reactor designed to breed fuel by producing more fissile material than it consumes. ... This article is about the chemical element. ... Roscoe Bartlett Dr. Roscoe Gardner Bartlett (born June 3, 1926) is a Republican member of the United States House of Representatives, representing the 6th district (map) of the State of Maryland since 1993. ...

Our current throwaway nuclear cycle uses up the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years.

Caltech physics professor David Goodstein has stated [14] that David L. Goodstein (born 1939) is a U.S. physicist and educator. ...

... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.

Metals

Hubbert applied his theory to "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal" [15] and reasoned that the peak production for metals such as copper, tin, lead, zinc and others would occur in the time frame of decades and iron in the time frame of two centuries like coal. The recent jump in the price [16] of copper [17] has become known among traders as "peak copper". Lithium availability is a concern for a fleet of Li-ion battery using cars but world reserves are estimated as adequate for at least 50 years [18]. A similar prediction [19] for platinum use in fuel cells notes that the metal could be easily recycled. For other uses, see Copper (disambiguation). ... This article is about the metallic chemical element. ... This article is about the metal. ... General Name, symbol, number zinc, Zn, 30 Chemical series transition metals Group, period, block 12, 4, d Appearance bluish pale gray Standard atomic weight 65. ... For other uses, see Iron (disambiguation). ... This article is about the chemical element named Lithium. ... Lithium ion batteries (sometimes abbreviated Li-Ion) are a type of rechargeable battery commonly used in consumer electronics. ... General Name, Symbol, Number platinum, Pt, 78 Chemical series transition metals Group, Period, Block 10, 6, d Appearance grayish white Standard atomic weight 195. ...


Phosphorus

Phosphorus supplies are essential to farming and depletion of reserves is estimated at somewhere from 60 to 130 years [20]. Individual countries supplies vary widely; without a recycling initiative America's supply [21] is estimated around 30 years [22]. Phosphorus supplies affect total agricultural output which in turn limits alternative fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol. General Name, symbol, number phosphorus, P, 15 Chemical series nonmetals Group, period, block 15, 3, p Appearance waxy white/ red/ black/ colorless Standard atomic weight 30. ...


Renewable resources

Despite the fact that, in theory, Hubbert's analysis does not apply to renewable resources, over-exploitation often results in a Hubbert peak nonetheless. The Hubbert curve seems to be applicable to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced:[citation needed]

  • Water: For example, a reserve such as the Ogallala Aquifer can be mined at a rate that far exceeds replenishment. This turns much of the world's underground water [23] and lakes [24] into finite resources with peak usage debates similar to oil. These debates usually center around agriculture and suburban water usage but generation of electricity[25] from nuclear energy or coal and tar sands mining mentioned above is also water resource intensive. The term fossil water is sometimes used to describe older aquifers that are not considered renewables anymore.
  • Fisheries: At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization on the whaling industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.[26] Another example is the cod of the North Sea[27].

The Ogallala aquifer underlies portions of eight states. ... Fossil water is groundwater having remained in an aquifer for thousands or more years. ... The crew of the oceanographic research vessel Princesse Alice, of Albert Grimaldi (later Prince Albert I of Monaco) pose while flensing a catch. ... COD may refer to many different topics, including: Cash on delivery Completion of discharge, shipping College of DuPage, a public Junior College with campuses in the suburbs of Chicago Call of Duty (series), a series of computer games Canadian Oxford Dictionary Carrier onboard delivery Catastrophic optical damage, a failure mode...

Criticism

At its most basic level, Hubbert Peak Theory has received no significant challenge from academia or industry. Fossil fuel extraction is finite, particularly as an economically-viable activity. Rather, critics discuss specific predictions made for the date of peak resource extraction, particularly based on improvements in technology that lead to greater economic viability for previously-known fossil fuel deposits.


Economist Michael Lynch [28] argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is overly simplistic, and that available evidence contradicts some of the more specific predictions. [29] He analyzed the timing of the global peak as predicted by Colin Campbell: initially predicted to occur in 2000, it was later pushed back to 2010. Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates.[30] Throughout 2001-2003, in his monthly newsletters, Campbell maintained that his 1996 prediction of a peak in 2000 was unchallenged, but in 2004 he shifted the peak to 2010. Later, he brought the predicted peak forward to 2006, but in 2005, he again published a 2010 peak date.[12] There have been several notable people named Colin Campbell: For the Scottish soldier, see Colin Campbell, 1st Baron Clyde For the Governor of Nova Scotia, see Colin Campbell (politician) For the Scottish Vice-Chancellor of the University of Nottingham, see Colin Campbell (academic) For the oil industry analyst, see Colin... Year 2000 (MM) was a leap year starting on Saturday (link will display full 2000 Gregorian calendar). ...


Critics such as Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI, argue that Hubbert peak supporters such as Campbell previously predicted a peak in global oil production in both 1989 and 1995 [31], based on oil production data available at that time. Maugeri claims that nearly all of these estimates do not take into account non-conventional oil even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling due to improved technology. Furthermore, he notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.[13] These improvements occurred even with low investment in new exploration and upgrading technology due to the low oil prices during the last 20 years. However, Maugeri feels that encouraging more exploration will require relatively high oil prices [32]. Non-conventional oil is oil extracted using techniques other than the traditional oil well method. ... Explorer redirects here. ... By the mid 20th century humans had achieved a mastery of technology sufficient to leave the surface of the Earth for the first time and explore space. ...


Edward Luttwak, an economist and historian, argues that peak oil is a myth. He claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has led to a massive underestimate of oil reserves.[14] The ASPO response to Luttwak's article is here[33]. Edward Nicolae Luttwak (born 1942) is an economist and historian known for his many publications on military strategy and international relations. ... The Hubbert curve, devised by M. King Hubbert, predicts future oil availability. ...


Cambridge Energy Research Associates authored a report [34] that is critical of Hubbert influenced predictions: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, also known as CERA, is a think tank that explores issues relating to all aspects of energy, including electric power, natural gas, and oil. ...

Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert's methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected.

CERA does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but instead believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.[15] Cambridge Energy Research Associates, also known as CERA, is a think tank that explores issues relating to all aspects of energy, including electric power, natural gas, and oil. ...


ASPO notes [35] that The Hubbert curve, devised by M. King Hubbert, predicts future oil availability. ...

We and CERA agree that production from existing oilfields is declining on average at about 5% per annum and this means, according to CERA, that 40 million barrels per day extra capacity is needed by 2015.

Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting a conventional oil supply shortage by no later than 2015, [36] does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.[5]


See also

Limits to Growth was a 1972 book modeling the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies, commissioned by the Club of Rome. ... The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). ... Please wikify (format) this article as suggested in the Guide to layout and the Manual of Style. ... Kuznets curve is the graphical representation of Simon Kuznetss theory (Kuznets hypothesis) that economic inequality increases over time, then at a critical point begins to decrease. ... A low-carbon economy is an economy in which carbon dioxide emissions from the use of carbon based fuels (coal, oil and gas) are significantly reduced. ... Oil crisis may refer to: 1973 oil crisis 1979 energy crisis 1990 spike in the price of oil Oil price increases of 2004 and 2005 Hubbert peak theory Energy crisis This is a disambiguation page: a list of articles associated with the same title. ... Not to be confused with APEC. OPEC Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international cartel[1][2] made up of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Ecuador (which rejoined OPRC in November 2007) . The... World power usage in terawatts (TW), 1965-2005. ... The Hirsch report is a report done for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005. ...

References

  1. ^ Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19-20, 2005 [1]
  2. ^ J.R. Wood, Michigan Technical University Geology Department Oil Seminar 2003 [2]
  3. ^ a b Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956[3]
  4. ^ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY
  5. ^ a b Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004 [4]
  6. ^ How peak oil could lead to starvation
  7. ^ Eating Fossil Fuels | EnergyBulletin.net
  8. ^ Peak Oil: the threat to our food security
  9. ^ Agriculture Meets Peak Oil
  10. ^ Global oil & gas depletion: an overview, R.W. Bentley, Energy Policy, 30, 189–205, 2002 [5]
  11. ^ GEO 3005: Earth Resources
  12. ^ Cambell, CJ (2005). Oil Crisis, 90. ISBN 0906522390. 
  13. ^ Maugeri, L. (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115
  14. ^ The truth about global oil supply
  15. ^ CERA says peak oil theory is faulty Energy Bulletin Nov 14, 2006
  • "Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) ASPO Newsletter #23.
  • Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Techniques of Prediction as Applied to Production of Oil and Gas, US Department of Commerce, NBS Special Publication 631, May 1982

External links

Sites

Documentaries

  • The Oilcrash, 2006

Online videos

  • M. King Hubbert speaking on Peak Oil in 1976

Articles

  • El mundo ante el cenit del petróleo Fernando Bullón Miró
  • M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science, vol. 109, pp. 103-109, February 4, 1949
  • Technocracy, Hubbert and peak oil Article from The North American Technocrat
  • David Hughes on Canadian Oil and Gas Transcribed interview of a Geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada. 30 December 2006.
  • Aviation & Peak Oil Airways Magazine article by Analyst / Economist (July 2006)

Reports, essays and lectures is the 35th day of the year in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 1949 (MCMXLIX) was a common year starting on Saturday (link will display the full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... The Geological Survey of Canada or GSC is part of the Earth Sciences Sector of Natural Resources Canada. ...

  • Doctoral thesis about Peak Oil
  • Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet)
  • M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth
  • Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004
  • graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions
  • Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop (2006), National Research Council
  • The End of Oil, essay 1.pdf, very concise peak-oil study by Bob Lloyd, July 2005
  • Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate

  Results from FactBites:
 
Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (5298 words)
Peak coal is still very far, but we can observe the example of anthracite in the USA, a high grade coal, that has peaked in the 1920s.
Hubbert had recoverable coal reserves at 2500 X 10^9 metric tons and peaking around 2150 depending on how the usage graph is drawn.
Hubbert reasoned that the peak production for metals such as copper, tin, lead, zinc and others would occur in the time frame of decades and iron in the time frame of two centuries like coal [45].
  More results at FactBites »

 
 

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