FACTOID # 22: South Dakota has the highest employment ratio in America, but the lowest median earnings of full-time male employees.
 
 Home   Encyclopedia   Statistics   States A-Z   Flags   Maps   FAQ   About 
   
 
WHAT'S NEW
 

SEARCH ALL

FACTS & STATISTICS    Advanced view

Search encyclopedia, statistics and forums:

 

 

(* = Graphable)

 

 


Encyclopedia > Exogenous growth model

The Exogenous growth model, also known as the Neo-classical growth model or Solow growth model is a term used to sum up the contributions of various authors to a model of long-run economic growth within the framework of neoclassical economics. A diagram of the IS/LM model In economics, a model is a theoretical construct that represents economic processes by a set of variables and a set of logical and quantitative relationships between them. ... World GDP/capita changed very little for most of human history before the industrial revolution. ... Neoclassical economics refers to a general approach (a metatheory) to economics based on supply and demand which depends on individuals (or any economic agent) operating rationally, each seeking to maximize their individual utility or profit by making choices based on available information. ...

Contents

Development of the model

The Neo-classical model was an extension to the Harrod-Domar model that included a new term, productivity growth. The most important contribution was probably the work done by Robert Solow; in 1956, Solow and T.W. Swan developed a relatively simple growth model which fit available data on US economic growth with some success[1]. Solow received the 1987 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on the model. The Harrod-Domar model is used in development economics to explain an economys growth rate in terms of the level of saving and productivity of capital. ... Robert Merton Solow (born August 23, 1924) is an American economist particularly known for his work on the theory of economic growth. ... Trevor Swan, 1918-1989 was an Australian economist. ... Motto: (Out Of Many, One) (traditional) In God We Trust (1956 to date) Anthem: The Star-Spangled Banner Capital Washington D.C. Largest city New York City None at federal level (English de facto) Government Federal constitutional republic  - President George Walker Bush (R)  - Vice President Dick Cheney (R) Independence from... The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (in Swedish Sveriges Riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne), is a prize awarded each year for outstanding intellectual contributions in the field of economics. ...


Extension to the Harrod-Domar model

Solow extended the Harrod-Domar model by:

The capital-output and capital-labor ratios are not fixed as they are in the Harrod-Domar model. These refinements allow increasing capital intensity to be distinguished from technological progress. Classical economics distinguishes between three factors of production which are used in the production of goods: Land or natural resources - naturally-occurring goods such as soil and minerals. ... In economics, diminishing returns is the short form of diminishing marginal returns. ... In economics, returns to scale and economies of scale are terms that are related, and sometimes incorrectly used interchangeably. ... Capital intensity is the term in economics for the amount of fixed or real capital present in relation to other factors of production, especially labor. ...


Short run implications

  • Policy measures like tax cuts or investment subsidies can affect the steady state level of output but not the long-run growth rate.
  • Growth is affected only in the short-run as the economy converges to the new steady state output level.
  • The rate of growth as the economy converges to the steady state is determined by the rate of capital accumulation.
  • Capital accumulation is in turn determined by the savings rate (the proportion of output used to create more capital rather than being consumed) and the rate of capital depreciation.

“Taxes” redirects here. ... In economics, a subsidy is generally a monetary grant given by a government to lower the price faced by producers or consumers of a good, generally because it is considered to be in the public interest. ... Most generally, the accumulation of capital refers simply to the gathering or amassment of objects of value; the increase in wealth; or the creation of wealth. ... // This article does not cite any references or sources. ... In economics, consumption refers to the final use of goods and services to provide utility. ... Declining-balance depreciation of a $50,000 asset with $6,500 salvage value over 20 years. ...

Long run implications

In neoclassical growth models, the long-run rate of growth is Exogenously determined - in other words, it is determined outside of the model. A common prediction of these models is that an economy will always converge towards a steady state rate of growth, which depends only on the rate of technological progress and the rate of labor force growth. Exogenous (or exogeneous) (from the Greek words exo and gen, meaning outside and production) refers to an action or object coming from outside a system. ... The Catch-Up Effect is a theory stating that Economies that start off poor tend to grow faster than countries that start off richer. ... The steady-state is a condition of the economy in which output per worker and capital per worker do not change over time. ... Origins of theory According to Czech philosopher Radovan Richta, in his 1967 publication “Man and Technology in the Revolution of Our Day”, technology (which he defines as “a material entity created by the application of mental and physical effort to nature in order to achieve some value...


A country with a higher saving rate will experience faster growth, e.g. Singapore had a 40% saving rate in the period 1960 to 1996 and annual GDP growth of 5-6%, compared with Kenya in the same time period which had a 15% saving rate and annual GDP growth of just 1%. This relationship was anticipated in the earlier models, and is retained in the Solow model; however, in the very long-run capital accumulation appears to be less significant than technological innovation in the Solow model.


Assumptions

The key assumption of the neoclassical growth model is that capital is subject to diminishing returns. Given a fixed stock of labor, the impact on output of the last unit of capital accumulated will always be less than the one before. Assuming for simplicity no technological progress or labor force growth, diminishing returns implies that at some point the amount of new capital produced is only just enough to make up for the amount of existing capital lost due to depreciation[2]. At this point, because of the assumptions of no technological progress or labor force growth, the economy ceases to grow. In economics, diminishing returns is the short form of diminishing marginal returns. ...


Assuming non-zero rates of labor growth complicates matters somewhat, but the basic logic still applies[3] - in the short-run the rate of growth slows as diminishing returns take effect and the economy converges to a constant "steady-state" rate of growth (that is, no economic growth per-capita). The steady-state is a condition of the economy in which output per worker and capital per worker do not change over time. ...


Including non-zero technological progress is very similar to the assumption of non-zero workforce growth, in terms of "effective labor": a new steady state is reached with constant output per worker-hour required for a unit of output. However, in this case, per-capita output is growing at the rate of technological progress in the "steady-state"[4] (that is, the rate of productivity growth).


Variations in productivity's effects

Within the Solow growth model, the Solow residual or total factor productivity is an often used measure of technological progress. The model can be reformulated in slightly different ways using different productivity assumptions, or different measurement metrics: The Solow residual is a number describing empirical productivity growth in an economy from year to year and decade to decade. ... Total-factor productivty (TFP) addresses any effects in total output not caused by inputs or productivity. ...

  • Average Labor Productivity (ALP) is economic output per labor hour.
  • Multifactor productivity (MFP) is output divided by a weighted average of capital and labor inputs. The weights used are usually based on the aggregate input shares either factor earns. This ratio is often quoted as: 33% return to capital and 66% return to labor (in Western nations), but Robert J. Gordon says the weight to labor is more commonly assumed to be 75%[5].

In a growing economy, capital is accumulated faster than people are born, so the denominator in the growth function under the MFP calculation is growing faster than in the ALP calculation. Hence, MFP growth is almost always lower than ALP growth. (Therefore, measuring in ALP terms increases the apparent capital deepening effect.) Multifactor productivity (MFP) measures the changes in output per unit of combined inputs. ... Robert J. Gordon is an economics professor at Northwestern University, he also holds the title of Stanley G. Harris Professor in the social sciences. He is an expert on: Measuring and explaining productivity growth The causes of unemployment Airline economics From 1995-1997 he served on a national commission to... Capital deepening is a term used in economics to describe an economy where capital per worker is increasing, it is an increase in the capital intensity. ...


Technically, MFP is measured by the "Solow residual", not ALP. The Solow residual is a number describing empirical productivity growth in an economy from year to year and decade to decade. ...


Empirical evidence

A key prediction of neoclassical growth models is that the income levels of poor countries will tend to catch up with or converge towards the income levels of rich countries. Since the 1950s, the opposite empirical result has been observed on average. If the average growth rate of countries since, say, 1960 is plotted against initial GDP per capita (i.e. GDP per capita in 1960), one observes a positive relationship. In other words, the developed world appears to have grown at a faster rate than the developing world, the opposite of what is expected according to a prediction of convergence.[citation needed] However, a few formerly poor countries, notably Japan, do appear to have converged with rich countries, and in the case of Japan actually exceeded other countries' productivity, some theorise that this is what has caused Japan's poor growth recently - convergent growth rates are still expected, even after convergence has occurred; leading to over-optimistic investment, and actual recession. A developing country is a country with low average income compared to the world average. ... The Catch-Up Effect is a theory stating that Economies that start off poor tend to grow faster than countries that start off richer. ... In macroeconomics, the definition of recession is a decline in any countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. ...


The evidence is stronger for convergence within countries. For instance the per-capita income levels of the southern states of the United States have tended to converge to the levels in the Northern states. These observations have led to the adoption of the conditional convergence concept. Whether convergence occurs or not depends on the characteristics of the country or region in question, such as:

Evidence for conditional convergence comes from multivariate, cross-country regressions. A free market is an idealized market, where all economic decisions and actions by individuals regarding transfer of money, goods, and services are voluntary, and are therefore devoid of coercion and theft (some definitions of coercion are inclusive of theft). Colloquially and loosely, a free market economy is an economy... Free trade is an economic concept referring to the selling of products between countries without tariffs or other trade barriers. ...


If productivity were associated with high technology then the introduction of information technology should have led to a noticeable productivity acceleration over the past twenty years; but it has not: see: Solow computer paradox. The Solow computer paradox is that the productivity of the work force has not risen as information technology has extended through western industry. ...


Econometric analysis on Singapore and the other "East Asian Tigers" has produced the surprising result that although output per worker has been rising, almost none of their rapid growth had been due to rising per-capita productivity (they have a low "Solow residual")[6]. Econometrics literally means economic measurement. It is the branch of economics that applies statistical methods to the empirical study of economic theories and relationships. ... Map of East Asian Tigers  Hong Kong  Singapore South Korea  Taiwan, Republic of China Skyline of Hong Kong Island, taken from Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong The skyline of Singapores Central Business District (CBD) seen here at dusk Taipei is Taiwans largest city and financial center. ... The Solow residual is a number describing empirical productivity growth in an economy from year to year and decade to decade. ...


Criticisms of the model

Empirical evidence offers mixed support for the model. Limitations of the model include its failure to take account of entrepreneurship (which may be catalyst behind economic growth) and strength of institutions (which facilitate economic growth). In addition, it does not explain how or why technological progress occurs. This failing has led to the development of endogenous growth theory, which endogenizes technological progress and/or knowledge accumulation. In economics, endogenous growth theory or new growth theory was developed in the 1980s as a response to criticism of the neo-classical growth model. ...


However, critics held that Schumpeter’s 1939 (Theory of Business Cycles), modern Institutionalism and Austrian economics offer an even better prospect of explaining how long run economic growth occur than the later Lucas/Romer models.


From the far left, Marxist critics of growth theory itself have questioned the model's underlying assertion that economic growth is necessarily a good thing.[7] While the model is welfare maximizing, the use of a representative agent hides equity issues. Economic growth is the increase in the value of goods and services produced by an economy. ...


Graphical representation of the model

The model starts with a neoclassical production function Y/L = F(K/L), rearranged to y = f(k), which is the orange curve on the graph. From the production function; output per worker is a function of capital per worker. The production function assumes diminishing returns to capital in this model, as denoted by the slope of the production function. Image File history File links Solow growth model diagram File history Legend: (cur) = this is the current file, (del) = delete this old version, (rev) = revert to this old version. ...


n = population growth rate
d = depreciation
k = capital per worker
y = output/income per worker
L = labor force
s = saving rate
Declining-balance depreciation of a $50,000 asset with $6,500 salvage value over 20 years. ...


Capital per worker change is determined by three variables:

  • Investment (saving) per worker
  • Population growth, increasing population decreases the level of capital per worker.
  • Depreciation - capital stock declines as it depreciates.

When sy > (n+d)k, in other words, when the savings rate is greater than the population growth rate plus the depreciation rate, when the green line is above the black line on the graph, then capital (k) per worker is increasing, this is known as capital deepening. Where capital is increasing at a rate only enough to keep pace with population increase and depreciation it is known as capital widening. Capital deepening is a term used in economics to describe an economy where capital per worker is increasing, it is an increase in the capital intensity. ... Capital deepening is a term used in economics to describe an economy where capital per worker is increasing, it is an increase in the capital intensity. ...


The curves intersect at point A, the "steady state". At the steady state, output per worker is constant. However total output is growing at the rate of n, the rate of population growth. The steady-state is a condition of the economy in which output per worker and capital per worker do not change over time. ...


Left of point A, point k1 for example, the saving per worker is greater than the amount needed to maintain a steady level of capital, so capital per worker increases. There is capital deepening from y1 to y0, and thus output per worker increases.


Right of point A where sy < (n+d)k, point y2 for example, capital per worker is falling, as investment is not enough to combat population growth and depreciation. Therefore output per worker falls from y2 to y0.


The model and changes in the saving rate

The graph is very similar to the above, however, it now has a second savings function s1y, the blue curve. It demonstrates that an increase in the saving rate shifts the function up. Saving per worker is now greater than population growth plus depreciation, so capital accumulation increases, shifting the steady state from point A to B. As can be seen on the graph, output per worker correspondingly moves from y0 to y1. Initially the economy expands faster, but eventually goes back to the steady state rate of growth which equals n. Image File history File links Solow growth model File history Legend: (cur) = this is the current file, (del) = delete this old version, (rev) = revert to this old version. ...


There is now permanently higher capital and productivity per worker, but economic growth is the same as before the savings increase.

The model and changes in population

This graph is again very similar to the first one, however, the population has now increased from n to n1, this introduces a new capital widening line (n1+d)k, the blue line. The production function and the saving rate do not change. As there is now a bigger labor force, but the same amount of investment (saving), saving per worker decreases, and therefore the steady state shifts down from A to B. Capital per worker has decreased from k0 to k1, saving per worker has decreased from sy0 to sy1, and output per worker has correspondingly decreased from y0 to y1. Image File history File links Solow growth model File history Legend: (cur) = this is the current file, (del) = delete this old version, (rev) = revert to this old version. ...


This implies that population growth rate increases lead to a lower average income and a reduction in population growth rate would cause capital deepening.

Mathematical framework

The Solow growth model can be described by the interaction of five basic macroeconomic equations:

  • Macro-production function
  • GDP equation
  • Savings function
  • Change in capital
  • Change in workforce

Macro-production function

Y=AK^aL^{1-a},


This is a Cobb-Douglas function where Y represents the total production in an economy. A represents multifactor productivity (often generalized as technology), K is capital and L is labor. In economics, the Cobb-Douglas functional form of production functions is widely used to represent the relationship of an output to inputs. ... Multifactor productivity (MFP) measures the changes in output per unit of combined inputs. ...


An important relation in the macro-production function:


Y=AK^aL^{1-a} leftrightarrow y=Ak^a


Which is the macro-production function divided by L to give total production per capita y and the capital intensity k


GDP equation

Y=C+G+I+NX,


Where C is private consumption, G is public consumption, NX is net exports, and I represents investments, or savings. Note that in the Solow model, we represent public consumption and private consumption simply as total consumption from both the public and government sector. Also notice that net exports and government spending are excluded from Solow's model. This equation is called the GDP equation because it is calculated much the same way as is the Gross domestic product (or more precisely the Gross national product). This article is about GDP in the context of economics. ... Measures of national income and output are used in economics to estimate the value of goods and services produced in an economy. ...


Savings function

I=sY,


This function depicts savings, I as a portion s of the total production Y.


Change in capital

Delta K=sY-,delta K,


The delta, is the rate of depreciation.


Change in workforce

L_{t+1}=L_t(1+gL),


gL is the growth function for L.


The model's solution

First we'll need to define some growth functions.


1. Growth in capital gK=frac{Delta K}{K}


2. Growth in the GDP gY=frac{Delta Y}{Y}-1


3. Growth function for capital intensity gk=gK-gL, Capital intensity is the term in economics for the amount of fixed or real capital present in relation to other factors of production, especially labor. ...


Solution assuming no multifactor productivity growth

This simplification makes the solution's derivation more comprehensible, as it allows the following calculations:


gK=frac{Delta K}{K}rightarrowfrac{sY-dK}{K}rightarrowfrac{sY}{K}-d


When there is no growth in A then we can assume the following based on the first calculation:


gK=gL=gY,


Moving on:


gK=frac{sY}{K}-d Divide the fraction by L and you will see that gK=frac{sy}{k}-d


gK=frac{sy}{k}-drightarrowfrac{sAk^a}{k}-drightarrowfrac{sA}{k^{1-a}}-d


By subtracting gL from gK we end up with:


gk=frac{sA}{k^{1-a}}-(d+gL)


If k is known in the year t then this formula can be used to calculate k in any given year.


In the first segment on the right side of the equation we see that lim_{k to 0} gk=infty and lim_{k to infty}gk=-(d+gL)


Deriving the Steady-state equation:


d(K / L) / dt = d(k) / dt where k = K / L and k denotes cper worker.


Differentiating we obtain:


dk/dt=(frac{dK L-dL K}{L^2})/dt frac{}{} which is


dk/dt=(dK/L)/dt-(frac{dL}{L}frac{K}{L})/dt) we know that


(dL / L) / dt is the population growth rate over time denoted by n.


Furthermore we know that


dK / dt = sYxK


where x is the depreciation rate of capital.


Hence we obtain:


dk=sy-(n+x)k


which is the fundamental Solow equation. The same can be done if technological progress is included.


A Simple Explanation

Consider a simple case Cobb-Douglas production function:

Y=K^{alpha}N^{1-alpha},,

where Y is level output, K level of capital, N level of employment (given, fixed), and 0 < α < 1 is relative capital intensity (given, fixed). Net capital accumulation per capita in period t is given by:

frac{K_{t+1}}{N}-frac{K_t}{N}=sleft(frac{Y_t}{N}right)-{delta}left(frac{K_t}{N}right),

where s is the savings rate, and δ the depreciation rate. The economy reaches a steady state level of output and capital when net capital accumulation per capita is zero. That is,

sleft(frac{Y}{N}right)={delta}left(frac{K}{N}right),

the amount of total investment (left side) is equal to the amount of capital depreciation (right side) in any given period. From the production function we know that output per capita is given by:

frac{Y}{N}=left(frac{K}{N}right)^alpha,

which implies that the steady state levels of capital and output, denoted by asterisks, are:

frac{K^*}{N}=left(frac{s}{delta}right)^{frac{1}{1-alpha}},

and

frac{Y^*}{N}=left(frac{s}{delta}right)^{frac{alpha}{1-alpha}}.

for given values of s,δ, and α.


Now consider output as a Cobb-Douglas function of capital and effective labor AN:

Y=K^{alpha}left(ANright)^{1-alpha},,

where increases in technology A positively affect output Y by improving the efficiency of labor N. If technology grows at a constant positive rate of gA, and labor at gA, then their product AN grows at a rate approximately equal to gA + gN. Consequently, the steady state level of output per unit of effective labor (derived from the original steady state condition)

frac{Y^*}{AN}=left(frac{s}{delta}right)^{frac{alpha}{1-alpha}},

is actually declining since output Y is by definition growing at zero in the steady state (left side numerator), whereas (in the denominator) effective labor is growing at gA + gN > 0. Therefore, in order to offset this additional source of per unit erosion in steady state output, the steady state condition must be modified to read:

sleft(frac{Y}{AN}right)=left(delta+g_A+g_Nright)left(frac{K}{AN}right)

total investment (left side) must equal the amount of growth in effective labor in addition to the amount of capital depreciation. This modification implies that the steady state level of output per unit of effective labor is

frac{Y^*}{AN}=left(frac{s}{delta+g_A+g_N}right)^frac{alpha}{1-alpha}.

Similarly, the steady state level of capital per unit of effecitve labor is

frac{K^*}{AN}=left(frac{s}{delta+g_A+g_N}right)^frac{1}{1-alpha}.

Note: Although per unit growth is zero, the absolute levels of output Y * and capital K * in the steady state are still growing at a constant positive rate gA + gN > 0. This result is sometimes referred to as balanced growth. Also note that the savings rate s does not affect the rate of growth in the steady state, although it does still contribute to the initial level of output and capital at the start of a period of balanced growth.


The golden rule savings rate s * maximizes the steady state level of aggregate consumption C * per unit of effective labor, as defined by the national income (GDP) identity:

frac{Y^*}{AN}=frac{C^*}{AN}+frac{I^*}{AN}.

Assuming that the steady state level of investment I * equals sY * , the golden rule savings rate solves the unconstrained maximization problem

max_s frac{C^*}{AN}=left(frac{s}{delta+g_A+g_N}right)^frac{alpha}{1-alpha}-sleft(frac{s}{delta+g_A+g_N}right)^frac{alpha}{1-alpha}.

Since

ln{left(frac{C^*}{AN}right)}=ln{left(1-sright)}+left(frac{alpha}{1-alpha}right)ln{left(frac{s}{delta+g_A+g_N}right)},

this implies

frac{partialln{left(frac{C^*}{AN}right)}}{partial s}=-frac{1}{1-s}+left(frac{alpha}{1-alpha}right)left(frac{delta+g_N+g_A}{s}right)left(frac{1}{delta+g_N+g_A}right),

setting equal to zero and simplifying,

0=-s+(1-s)left(frac{alpha}{1-alpha}right),

finally,

s^*=alpha,.

Note: This implies that aggregate consumption per unit of effective labor in the steady state is maximized when the savings rate is exactly equal to the relative intensity of capital in the production function.


See also

In economics, the Golden Rule savings rate is the rate of savings which maximizes steady state growth consumption in the Solow growth model. ... Economic growth is the increase in the value of goods and services produced by an economy. ... In economics, endogenous growth theory or new growth theory was developed in the 1980s as a response to criticism of the neo-classical growth model. ... The introduction to this article provides insufficient context for those unfamiliar with the subject matter. ...

External links

  • Java applet where you can experiment with parameters and learn about Solow model

Notes

^  Solow. R. M. (1957), Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39.


  Results from FactBites:
 
Exogenous growth model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (2846 words)
Exogenous growth model, also known as the Neo-classical model or Solow growth model is a term used to sum up the contributions of various authors to a model of long-run economic growth within the framework of neoclassical economics.
The rate of growth as the economy converges on the steady state is determined by the rate of capital accumulation.
Hence, the 1.5% per-annum growth during this period (in output-per-capita) was due almost entirely to capital accumulation, based on the assumptions of the Solow growth model.
Malthusian growth model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (613 words)
The Malthusian growth model, sometimes called the simple exponential growth model, is essentially exponential growth based on a constant rate of compound interest.
As noted by Professor Peter Turchin (Does population ecology have general laws?, 2001 and Complex Population Dynamics, 2003), this model is often referred to as The Exponential Law and is widely regarded in the field of population ecology as the first principle of population dynamics, with Malthus as the founder.
The Malthusian growth model is the direct ancestor of the logistic function.
  More results at FactBites »

 
 

COMMENTARY     


Share your thoughts, questions and commentary here
Your name
Your comments

Want to know more?
Search encyclopedia, statistics and forums:

 


Press Releases |  Feeds | Contact
The Wikipedia article included on this page is licensed under the GFDL.
Images may be subject to relevant owners' copyright.
All other elements are (c) copyright NationMaster.com 2003-5. All Rights Reserved.
Usage implies agreement with terms, 1022, m