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Encyclopedia > Distribution ensemble

Let I be a countable index set. An ensemble indexed by I is a sequence of random variables indexed by I. Namely, , where the Xi's are random variables, is an ensemble indexed by I.


References

  • Goldreich, Oded (2001). Foundations of Cryptography: Volume 1, Basic Tools. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-79172-3. Fragments available at the author's web site.

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ECMWF - Press Room (2440 words)
Ensemble modes are generally not reliable: in case of multi-modality the verification is still more likely to be found near the ensemble mean than in the vicinity of ensemble modes.
The Ward algorithm is clearly not suitable for such a distribution: the boundaries between the clusters are arbitrary, often separating members very close to each other; the cluster centroids, close to each other and to the ensemble mean, give a poor representation of the ensemble distribution.
The forecast distribution is represented by (i) the central cluster mean, grouping those ensemble forecasts lying around the ensemble mean, indicating the most likely meteorological pattern, (ii) the extreme forecasts located on the edges of the distribution, whose differences from the central cluster mean indicate the possible meteorological deviations from the most likely forecast.
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