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Encyclopedia > Cliodynamics

Cliodynamics (from Clio, the muse of history, and dynamics, the study of temporally varying processes) is a new multidisciplinary area of research focused at mathematical modeling of historical dynamics.[1] It investigates dynamic processes in history, and ascends to such figures as Ibn Khaldun, Jack Goldstone, Randall Collins, Peter Turchin, John Komlos, Sergey Nefedov, or Andrey Korotayev. The term was originally coined by Peter Turchin in 2003. Clio—detail from The Allegory of Painting by Johannes Vermeer For other uses, see Clio (disambiguation). ... This article is about the social science. ... Interdisciplinary work is that which integrates concepts across different disciplines. ... A mathematical model uses mathematical language to describe a system. ... The Lorenz attractor is an example of a non-linear dynamical system. ... Ibn Khaldūn or Ibn Khaldoun (full name, Arabic: , ) (May 27, 1332 AD/732 AH – March 19, 1406 AD/808 AH), was a famous Berber Muslim polymath: a historian, historiographer, demographer, economist, philosopher, political theorist, sociologist and social scientist born in present-day Tunisia. ... Jack A. Goldstone is an American sociologist and political scientist, specializing in studies of social movements, revolutions, and international politics. ... Randall Collins, Ph. ... Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ... John Komlos John Komlos (born December 28, 1944 in Budapest, Hungary) is an American economic historian at the University of Munich where he is professor of economics and chair of economic history. ... Andrey Korotayev (born in 1961) is an anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist. ... Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ...

Contents

Description

History is the study of the past, with special attention to the written record of the activities of human beings over time. Scholars who write about history are called historians. History examines and analyzes a sequence of events and attempts to investigate objectively the patterns of cause and effect that determine events.[2][3] In probability theory, an event is a outcome set to which a probability is assigned. This article is about the social science. ... The past is the portion of the timeline that has already occurred; it is the opposite of the future. ... Objectivity has several meanings: Objectivity (philosophy) Objectivity (journalism) Categories: Disambiguation ... Causality or causation denotes the relationship between one event (called cause) and another event (called effect) which is the consequence (result) of the first. ... Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. ... In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes (a subset of the sample space) to which a probability is assigned. ...


Mathematical models

A mathematical model uses mathematical language to describe a system. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed 'mathematical modelling' (also modeling). Eykhoff (1974) defined a mathematical model as 'a representation of the essential aspects of an existing system (or a system to be constructed) which presents knowledge of that system in usable form'.[4] Mathematical models can take many forms, including but not limited to dynamical systems, statistical models, differential equations, or game theoretic models. These and other types of models can overlap, with a given model involving a variety of abstract structures. Note: The term model is also given a formal meaning in model theory, a part of axiomatic set theory. ... A mathematical model uses mathematical language to describe a system. ... For other meanings of mathematics or uses of math and maths, see Mathematics (disambiguation) and Math (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see System (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see System (disambiguation). ... In engineering and mathematics, a dynamical system is a deterministic process in which a functions value changes over time according to a rule that is defined in terms of the functions current value. ... A statistical model is used in applied statistics. ... In mathematics, a differential equation is an equation in which the derivatives of a function appear as variables. ... For other uses, see Game theory (disambiguation) and Game (disambiguation). ...


Dynamic processes

A system is a set of interacting or interdependent entities, real or abstract, forming an integrated whole. The concept of an integrated whole can also be stated in terms of a system embodying a set of relationships which are differentiated from relationships of the set to other elements, and from relationships between an element of the set and elements not a part of the relational regime. For other uses, see System (disambiguation). ... The Lorenz attractor is an example of a non-linear dynamical system. ... For other uses, see System (disambiguation). ... An entity is something that has a distinct, separate existence, though it need not be a material existence. ...


Dynamical system modeled as a mathematical formalization has fixed "rule" which describes the time dependence of a point's position in its ambient space. Small changes in the state of the system correspond to small changes in the numbers. The evolution rule of the dynamical system is a fixed rule that describes what future states follow from the current state. The rule is deterministic: for a given time interval only one future state follows from the current state. The Lorenz attractor is an example of a non-linear dynamical system. ... For other meanings of mathematics or uses of math and maths, see Mathematics (disambiguation) and Math (disambiguation). ... In logic, mathematics, and computer science, a formal system is a formal grammar used for modelling purposes. ... This article is about the concept of time. ... The ambient space, in mathematics, is the space surrounding a mathematical object. ... This article is about functions in mathematics. ... In mathematics, a deterministic system is a system in which no randomness is involved in the development of future states of the system. ...


Achievements

At the moment in this realm the main achievements have been made with respect to the mathematical modeling of long-term ("secular") cycles of sociodemographic dynamics (Turchin 2003, 2006, 2007 etc.), as well as the mathematical modeling of the extreme long-term ("millennial") trends of the World System dynamics (Korotayev et al. 2006a, 2006b etc.). Social cycle theories are one of the earliest social theories in sociology. ... Note: The term model is also given a formal meaning in model theory, a part of axiomatic set theory. ...


See also

Cliometrics refers to the systematic use of economic theory and econometrics techniques to study economic history. ...

Notes

  1. ^ Arise 'cliodynamics' (essay), Turchin, Peter 2008 Nature (3 July 2008)
  2. ^ Profesor Richard J. Evans (2001). "The Two Faces of E.H. Carr". History in Focus, Issue 2: What is History?. University of London. http://www.history.ac.uk/ihr/Focus/Whatishistory/evans10.html. Retrieved on 10 November 2008. 
  3. ^ Professor Alun Munslow (2001). "What History Is". History in Focus, Issue 2: What is History?. University of London. http://www.history.ac.uk/ihr/Focus/Whatishistory/munslow6.html. Retrieved on 10 November 2008. 
  4. ^ Eykhoff, Pieter System Identification: Parameter and State Estimation, Wiley & Sons, (1974). ISBN 0471249807

Bibliography

  • Goldstone J. 1991. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley, California: University of California Press.
  • Komlos J., Nefedov S. 2002. Compact Macromodel of Pre-Industrial Population Growth. Historical Methods. (35): 92–94.
  • Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. 2006a. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00414-4 .
  • Korotayev, A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. 2006b. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5484005590
  • Korotayev, A. & Khaltourina D. 2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5484005604
  • Turchin P. 2003. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Turchin P. 2006. Population Density and Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 121–158 (with Andrey Korotayev).
  • Turchin P. et al., eds. 2007. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5484010020
  • Turchin P., Nefedov S. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press (in press).

Jack A. Goldstone is an American sociologist and political scientist, specializing in studies of social movements, revolutions, and international politics. ... John Komlos John Komlos (born December 28, 1944 in Budapest, Hungary) is an American economic historian at the University of Munich where he is professor of economics and chair of economic history. ... Andrey Korotayev (born in 1961) is an anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist. ... Andrey Korotayev (born in 1961) is an anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist. ... Andrey Korotayev (born in 1961) is an anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist. ... Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ... Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ... The Social Evolution & History (sometimes abbreviated as SEH) is devoted to the study of many aspects of the evolutionary changes that have occurred over the long course of human history. ... Andrey Korotayev (born in 1961) is an anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist. ... Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ... Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ...

External links

  • "Cliodynamics" Internet site
  • Peter Turchin's Web Page
  • Arise Cliodynamics
  • Why do we need mathematical models of historical processes?
  • War and Peace and War at InterSci Complexity wiki
  • Historical Dynamics at InterSci Complexity wiki
  • Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth
  • Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends at InterSci Complexity wiki

 
 

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